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Post by kevin on Dec 17, 2019 22:59:53 GMT
17/12/2019 UPDATE
The critic groups of today are:
*Phoenix FCS
*Dublin FCC
*London FCC (nominations)
Phoenix FCS
Let's start with the most important news. The Phoenix FCS is one of the 18 'lock nominations'. Winning one of these awards will bring you're NC value to 100% and basically secures a nom (at least considering the performance in the last 10 years). But the Phoenix FCS is more than that. It has correctly predicted 8 of the last 10 Best Picture winners (missing out with La La Land and Inglourious Basterds), making it the most Oscars accurate critic group around. And this year they gave the award to 'Joker', a huge surprise. Does this mean Joker is now a frontrunner for Best Picture, no I don't think it'll win and I don't think it's a frontrunner. But is it a huge boost for the movie and does it secure an Oscar nom for it? Definitely.
Dublin FCC
Marriage Story took home the big prize in Dublin. The win makes sure that Marriage Story remains safely in the list of frontrunners, even though the hype around it seems to have died out a bit. However, this could be reignited by the Oscar noms. A movie that has sbeen struggling a lot lately is The Irishman. It has received plenty of nominations, but it hasn't won a big prize since the 4th of December (NBR and NYFCC). The big The Irishman vs. Marriage Story battle that was expected has now turned into a Parasite vs. Once Upon a Time In Hollywood battle, it seems. Tbh The Irishman's current rankings are more similar to say a 'The Favourite' or 'A Star Is Born' than a 'Roma' or 'The Shape of Water'. There's still enough time for this to change and I still believe The Irishman will rise in the latter half of the season, but it's kinda been underperforming lately in terms of actually winning awards and I don't think we should consider it to be THE big frontrunner to beat anymore.
London FCC
London's highest ranked snub is 'Once Upon a Time in Hollywood'. They also have a nom to Portrait of a Lady on Fire and The Souvenir. While those 2 movies are definitely not getting in anymore, their nom for Knives Out does give a boost to that movie. It'll be interesting to see movies fighting for 1 or 2 spots in the #9 - #10 range. There's Knives Out, The Two Popes, The Farewell, Uncut Gems and Ford v Ferarri (which has received surprisingly little awards so far, but it's a very Oscar focused movie so who knows).
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Post by kevin on Dec 24, 2019 14:12:47 GMT
24/12/2019
The awards given since the last update are:
*Satellite Awards
*Florida Film Critics Circle
*Online Film Critics Society (nominations)
Satellite Awards
Due to the shortened Oscar season the Satellite Awards were held this week instead of February. Ford v Ferrari took home the big prize for Drama and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood got the comedy/musical award. A huge boost for Ford v Ferrari, which seems like a very possible Oscar nomination, especially considering how much the Oscars love crowdpleasers. Everything outside of the top 7 is still a bit up in the air and it'll be movies like Little Women (even though this one is probably a semi-lock at this point), The Two Popes, Uncut Gems, Knives Out, Ford v Ferrari and movies like that to fight for the last spots.
Florida FCC
Florida surprisingly went with Portrait of a Lady on Fire. Portrait is doing amazing this season, especially considering it isn't the official French submission of the year (that's Les Misérables). I'm pretty sure that had Portrait been the submission, it would've had a great shot at a Best Picture nom. Would've been something, 2 foreign language movies in the BP category and also 2 who definitely deserve it (imo ofc). Not submitting it is easily the biggest screw up made this awards season (so far).
Online FCS
The Online Film Critics Society announced its nominations. Once again, all of the top 7 movies were nominated with the exception of Joker (but that movie got already more than enough of a boost this week with the Phoenix FCC win). Also, another nomination for Portrait of a Lady on Fire. Uncut Gems and Us were also nominated.
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Post by kevin on Dec 28, 2019 8:47:02 GMT
28/12/2019
North Carolina FCA
I hope everyone had a great Christmas. I added the nominations for the North Carolina FCA, which were announced yesterday. The 4 favorites (Parasite, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, The Irishman & Marriage Story) were nominated, so there's not that much to discuss here. Remember that last year every movie nominated had a log value of -2.1 or better. So far only 7 movies have such a log value. But there's still more than enough time before the Oscar nominations on the 13th of January. There are still a lot of critics groups and industry awards to come, including the Golden Globes and the Critics Choice.
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Post by kevin on Jan 1, 2020 15:50:33 GMT
Current predicted Best Picture nominees (01/01/2020)
*Based on a combination of the NC and FWC in this thread and also taking into account betting odds and some of the my personal ideas.
FRONTRUNNERS
1. Parasite
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. The Irishman
4. Marriage Story
5. 1917
OTHER LOCKS
6. Joker
7. Jojo Rabbit
THE UNDERDOGS
8. Little Women
9. Ford v Ferrari
THE OUTSIDERS
10. Bombshell
11. The Farewell
12. The Two Popes
13. Uncut Gems
14. Knives Out
15. Rocketman
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Post by kevin on Jan 2, 2020 15:10:52 GMT
02/01/2020 UPDATE
First of all, happy new year everyone. There are a few awards from December that I completely forgot about so they're in this update together with a few recent awards/nominations:
*Annie Awards (nominations)
*Lumières Award
(nominations)
*Austin Film Critics
(nominations)
*Metacritic (best of the year)
*Rotten Tomatoes (best of the year)
*IMDb (best of the year)
*Capri
Annie Awards
The nominations for the Annie awards were already announced on the 2nd of December. The Annie's are about animated movies. None of these movies have real BP chances, Toy Story 4 is the highest ranking one and it doesn't even crack the top 20. If there's one thing to take away from this, it's that the Best Animated Feature award will be between Toy Story 4 and I Lost My Body.
Lumières Award
The Lumières nominations were also already announced in early December. The highest ranking movie to get nominated was Portrait of a Lady on Fire. As time goes on it only becomes more apparent what a mistake it was to send Les Misérables
as the French submission instead of Portrait.
Austin FCC
Austin nominated the big 4 (Parasite, OUATIH, The Irishman & Marriage Story) + Uncut Gems. I'm still unsure about Uncut Gems and the Oscars. It's not one of the most likely movies to get the last slot, but I still think it's possible for it to squeeze in.
Metacritic
Since it's 2020 now it's time to add the 2 big critic sites and IMDb to the algorithm as well. Let's start with Metacritic. The top 5 Metacritic movies get a boost: Marriage Story, The Irishman, Portrait of a Lady on Fire
& The Souvenir; Parasite gets the biggest boost as it's the #1 of the year.
Rotten Tomatoes
For Rotten Tomatoes we also look at the top 5 of the year: Parasite, Knives Out, Us, Toy Story 4; And at #1 Avengers: Endgame with an extra boost. Anyways, I don't consider Endgame to have any realistic Best Picture chances a this point (I'd even put a movie like Portrait above it in terms of BP chances). The comic book slot for this year is already taken up by Joker and there's no way Endgame will get in as well.
IMDb
Here we only look at the top 3, which each get an equal boost: Parasite, Joker & Avengers: Endgame.
Capri
Finally, the Capri award was announced today at the film festival. The Best Picture award goes to The Irishman, which is still in the running. But at this point Parasite and OUATIH clearly have more momentum. Still, as mentioned, The Irishman isn't out of the picture yet and could still get a semi-surprise (at this point) win at the Oscars. Remember that we still have the Critics Choice & Golden Globes, both award shows with no Parasite nom so they could boost the chances of other movies relative to Parasite.
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Post by kevin on Jan 2, 2020 15:17:45 GMT
An overview of the remainder of this year's award season. Due to the shortened season, certain awards (like the César Awards will take place after the Academy Awards):
January
02 - Houston FCS
03 - Georgia FCA (nominations)
03 - North Carolina FCA
04 - National Society of Film Critics
05 - Golden Globes
06 - Austin FCC
06 - Online FCS
07 - BAFTAS (nominations)
10 - Georgia FCA
12 - Critics Choice
13 - Academy Awards / Oscars (nominations)
19 - Online Film & Television Association (nominations)
22 - Lumières Award
25 - Annie Awards
30 - London FCC
?? - International Cinephile Society (nominations)
February
02 - Online Film & Television Association
02 - BAFTAS
02 - Rotterdam International Film Festival
08 - Spirit Awards
09 - Academy Awards / Oscars
28 - César Award
?? - Black Reel
?? - César Award (nominations)
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Post by kevin on Jan 5, 2020 8:48:50 GMT
05/01/2020 UPDATE
There's less than 24 hours until the Golden Globes, so let's update the table with the recent awards:
*Houston FCA
*North Carolina FCA
*Georgia FCA (nominations)
*National Society of Film Critics
Houston FCA
Houston went with Parasite. Not much else to mention, the sweeping power of Parasite is unprecedented for a foreign language film. Even Roma never had the momentum Parasite currently has imo.
North Carolina FCA
Like so many other critic groups, North Carolina went with Parasite. Parasite also went home with Best Director, Best Foreign Film and Best Original Screenplay. They also gave Best Actor to Adam Driver, like most recent critic groups did. Adam Driver has won 27! acting awards this season for his role in Marriage Story, while Joaquin Phoenix has only won 4. While the Globes could still change this, I think that at this point Driver is definitely more of a frontrunner than Phoenix for Best Actor at the Oscars.
Georgia FCA
From Georgia we only got the nominations for now. They nominated the big 5 (Parasite, OUATIH, The Irishman, Marriage Story, 1917) and also nominated Little Women, which is slowly getting more momentum. The question is if it's already too late. The Farewell, Ford v Ferrari, A Hidden Life and Uncut Gems are also nominated.
National Society of Film Critics
Another day, another win for Parasite. Just to prevent this post from getting very repititive, I'd mention some other interesting wins: Greta Gerwig got Best Director and Portrait of a Lady on Fire & Atlantics tied for Best Cinematography.
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Post by kevin on Jan 6, 2020 20:26:12 GMT
06/01/2019 UPDATE
Golden Globes
Well that sure was a surprise, wasn't it? And I'm not talking about Best Comedy/Musical, everyone knew that was going to Once Upon a Time In Hollywood. But wow, 1917 gets the win for Best Drama and Sam Mendes also gets Best Director. That's huge. Do I think 1917 will when Best Picture? No, probably not. But does this increase its chances and is it one of the top 3 frontrunners? Definitely. While the impact of the Golden Globes on the Oscars is often exaggerated (many critics circles, the BAFTAS, Critics Choice & Spirit Awards correlate way better with the Oscars), it's still kind of a big deal. So this is the impact I think the Golden Globes will have on the current frontrunners.
1. Parasite: it was a slightly disappointing evening for Parasite. While it got Best Foreign Language, it was kind of expected to get either Best Director or Best Screenplay. Is Parasite out of the picture? Absolutely not. Together with the next movie in this post I'd still call it the frontrunner for the big prize. It also got a Writing Guild nomination a few hours ago (an award that OUATIH wasn't eligible for), which sort of makes up for its Golden Globes wins. But it is definitely not the unbeatable movie some people (including me for a while) thought it was.
2. Once Upon a Time In Hollywood: if Parasite doesn't win, it'll most likely be OUATIH that wins instead. It won the expected awards, but since most other movies (The Irishman, Marriage Story, Parasite) underperformed it makes OUATIH's accomplishments at the Globes seem even better. I'd say it's currently at about the same level as Parasite in terms of awards chances. However, there are still the Writing, Director Guild & Producer Guilds + the Baftas, Critics Choice and Spirit awards. And depending on the results in those competitions, Parasite could take a big lead again or OUATIH could even overtake Parasite. Who knows?
3. 1917: Yes it's number 6 on the current table on page 1, but I think this win will propel the movie to even more wins in the final stretch of this awards season. 1917 was a bit iffy earlier this season due to its late release in a shortened season, but yesterday's wins are exactly what it needed and I can see a 1917 win happening over a Irishman or Marriage Story win at this point.
4. The Irishman: wow, The Irishman really dropped hard the last few weeks. From being the #1 contender to an outsider in the #3 - #5 region, the industry hasn't been kind towards Netflix lately. I think a BP win for The Irishman is still technically a possibility, but it's definitely not the most likely outcome at this point. It needs a big boost to get back into the top 3.
5. Marriage Story: once again, Netflix isn't doing that well with awards season the last weeks. Maybe it'll do well on the preferential ballot, but tbh I don't see this winning anymore. If it can't even get a Screenplay win, I have a hard time believing it could win Best Picture. But then again, weirder things have happened.
I think the realistic chance of another movie than one of these 5 winning is 0% - 5%, so I expect these to be the big 5 going into the final weeks of the season.
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Post by kevin on Jan 7, 2020 15:20:39 GMT
07/01/2020 UPDATE
*BAFTA (nominations)
*Online Film Critics Society
BAFTAs
The 5 nominees for Best Picture are 1917, The Irishman, Joker, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Parasite. Not much else to say than that Marriage Story's chances of winning Best Picture are now even smaller than they were yesterday, let's say pretty much nonexistent.
Online FCS
After yesterday's slight setback Parasite continued its reign over the critic groups. It'll be interesting to see if yesterday was a fluke or if the industry just isn't as obsessed with Parasite as the critic groups. While there's still plenty of time for changes, it seems like the Oscars are going towards a 1v1 between Parasite and Once Upon a Time In Hollywood, with The Irishman and 1917 as the potential upsets.
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Post by kevin on Jan 7, 2020 21:08:58 GMT
07/01/2020 UPDATE 2
PGA (nominations)
We got the Producers Guild Awards. They are the most accurate industry awards in terms of wins (giving their top prize to 8 of the 10 last BP winners) and they about equal with the Critics Choice nominations as the top 2 best predictors of the nominees. Over the last 10 years a movie had an average 77% chance of getting a Best Picture nom after receiving a PGA nom. So all in all, they're a really big deal (way more than say f.e. the Golden Globes). This year they nominated Parasite, Once Upon a Time In Hollywood, Marriage Story, The Irishman, Joker, 1917, Jojo Rabbit, Little Women, Knives Out & Ford v Ferrari. And as I said 77% != 100%, but I think this time they'll get it right. I think those are our BP nominees minus Knives Out. With the current system it's nearly impossible to get 10 BP nominees so I think the final nominees are 8. Little Women, 9. Ford v Ferrari and not nominated at #10. Knives Out. Ford v Ferrari could also miss out, but I think we'll get 9 nominees this year and in that case I think it's the most likely movie to get the nom. The top 7 is completely locked. If any of those movies doesn't get nominated it would be a huge susprise.
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Post by kevin on Jan 11, 2020 15:12:28 GMT
11/01/2020 UPDATE
Georgia FCA
The Georgia FCA went with Parasite. This makes it the 25th American award that Parasite wins. 2nd place is Once Upon a Time In Hollywood with only 6 wins. But the most important awards are still to come and it's all still up in the air. Let's see what Critics Choice will do tomorrow, they predicted 6 out of the last 10 Best Picture winners correctly. The PGA is the only award yet to come with better statistics (8 out of 10) and they will give their award on the 18th of January. The 1 or 2 movies that win those awards will be the definitive frontrunners for the rest of the season, maybe the Baftas are the only ones after them that can give a significant push to a movies' awards chances.
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Post by kevin on Jan 13, 2020 8:19:23 GMT
12/01/2020 UPDATE
Critics Choice
Critics Choice (semi-susprisingly) went with Once Upon a Time In Hollywood. There's still a race going on between 1917, OUATIH and Parasite, but with OUATIH also taking Critics Choice I think it's now officially taken the frontrunner position from Parasite imo (even though Parasite is still marginally #1 in the awards table). The race is already closer in the awards table than Roma vs Green Book was last year and we all know what happened then. It's gonna be a close race. Looking at the current momentum, I'd say OUATIH would win it had the Oscars been today. But there's still almost a month left and a lot of things can change in the meantime momentum wise. We'll see.
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Post by kevin on Jan 13, 2020 21:09:02 GMT
I updated the awards table and set the NC of all nominated movies to 100% and the others to 0%, since we now ofc now which movies have a BP nom. The table shows that Parasite and OUATIH are neck and neck mathematically, even though I think OUATIH currently has the lead momentum wise. Let's see what the rest of the reason brings. As you can see f.e. 1917 is a bit low. I think this is mostly ebcause of the fact that I didn't include some of the later critic groups (because I wasn't aware they existed) and a lot of them gave their top prize to 1917. So I'll try to add those soon and let you know which ones I added, such that we have a clearer view of the current situation.
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