Doubtful since everyone is sucking Damien Chazelle's dick again this year. The best it can hope for is a win for one of the other 3 nominations which are technical related and include Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, and Film Editing.
This seems to be what's expected from what i have noticed looking around online...
-Best Director = Damien Chazelle -Best Actor = Casey Affleck (while Affleck is considered the favorite it seems Denzel is the only one with a chance to win outside of Affleck from what i can make out) -Best Picture = La La Land
so basically Hacksaw Ridge's chances of winning in those categories looks quite slim.
I hope it gets something a brilliant film in all areas but as stated above the luvvies are going to throw most at la la land just because it's one of films they tend to love, even if it was filmed entirely on a phone it would win most it's a film that makes most people's shit itch but it's got singing in it think of previous musicals les Mis etc they usually do well
up for best picture, best actor and best director.
what are its chances?
It's often easy to predict the winner of those Oscars based on the winner of the so-called "precursor awards": The winner of the Producers' Guild award is seen as a precursor for the Best Picture Oscar. The winner of the Director's Guild award is seen as a precursor for the Best Director Oscar. The precursors for the acting awards are the Screen Actors' Guild award, The Golden Globe, the BAFTA award, and the Critics' Choice award. Sometimes an actor will win all four of those awards (as was the case last year with Leonardo DiCaprio and Brie Larson last year), and that person clearly becomes the obvious frontrunner for the Oscar.
In the case of Hacksaw Ridge, it didn't win any of those awards, and neither did its star Andrew Garfield. So, the movie is extremely unlikely to win Oscars in anything other than in the technical categories (sound and editing).