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Post by politicidal on Jan 5, 2018 17:08:44 GMT
call me by your name looking less and less likely. Oversaturation in acclaimed films or the whole age disparity thing in light of the Weinstein effect?
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Post by hi224 on Jan 5, 2018 18:06:20 GMT
call me by your name looking less and less likely. Oversaturation in acclaimed films or the whole age disparity thing in light of the Weinstein effect? Underperforming at guild awards.
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Post by darkpast on Jan 8, 2018 1:39:51 GMT
Justice League
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Post by sdrew13163 on Jan 8, 2018 5:06:53 GMT
Lady Bird or Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri now.
I was a fool to think that modern Hollywood would give it to Dunkirk.
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Post by kevin on Jan 8, 2018 5:49:56 GMT
Were it up to me it would be Dunkirk, Blade Runner 2049 or The Shape of Water, but Lady Bird & Three Billboards are more likely. If one of the first 3 movies wins I'll be extremely happy.
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Post by hi224 on Jan 8, 2018 8:25:46 GMT
Welp Get Out and Dunkirk are definitely dead for any wins at all.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2018 21:55:37 GMT
It's 10 films that get nominated now right? My predictions:
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
The Post
Lady Bird
Call Me By Your Name
Dunkirk
The Big Sick
Mudbound
The Shape of Water
Detroit
The Lost City of Z
Good list. If Wonder Woman gets a nomination because of all the feminist PC crap going on, I will have a heart attack! its PGA nomination was very surprising.
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Post by politicidal on Jan 9, 2018 23:08:58 GMT
It's 10 films that get nominated now right? My predictions:
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
The Post
Lady Bird
Call Me By Your Name
Dunkirk
The Big Sick
Mudbound
The Shape of Water
Detroit
The Lost City of Z
Good list. If Wonder Woman gets a nomination because of all the feminist PC crap going on, I will have a heart attack! its PGA nomination was very surprising. The ones in bold I have since given up on. Strange since everyone loved the hell out of The Big Sick when it came out.
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Post by hi224 on Jan 10, 2018 0:00:57 GMT
I am wondering if we are underestimating Water.
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Post by Nora on Jan 23, 2018 2:59:39 GMT
I think Lady Bird has the best chance. Everyone loves it. not a strong enough thematic element in it to actually win Best Picture I think. Nominated? Sure. Win? No.
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Post by Nora on Jan 23, 2018 3:03:28 GMT
I would like to see it go to Three Billboards of course, but am concerned it will go to the Post or Dunkirk. But I would rather see it go to the Shape of Water. Call me by your name would have been my second favorite but I agree its actual chances are very low.
Lady Bird may get it if enough people vote (or are perceived as such) male directors to win and then on some level will feel guilty about it when casting the best pic vote.
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Post by hi224 on Jan 23, 2018 3:11:49 GMT
I would like to see it go to Three Billboards of course, but am concerned it will go to the Post or Dunkirk. But I would rather see it go to the Shape of Water. Call me by your name would have been my second favorite but I agree its actual chances are very low. Lady Bird may get it if enough people vote (or are perceived as such) male directors to win and then on some level will feel guilty about it when casting the best pic vote. The Post at this juncture ain't winning at all, its under performed too much. It'll be Billboards or Shape of Water, with maybe Lady Bird or Get Out as Dark Horses as well.
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Post by Nora on Jan 23, 2018 3:14:35 GMT
I would like to see it go to Three Billboards of course, but am concerned it will go to the Post or Dunkirk. But I would rather see it go to the Shape of Water. Call me by your name would have been my second favorite but I agree its actual chances are very low. Lady Bird may get it if enough people vote (or are perceived as such) male directors to win and then on some level will feel guilty about it when casting the best pic vote. The Post at this juncture ain't winning at all, its under performed too much. It'll be Billboards or Shape of Water, with maybe Lady Bird or Get Out as Dark Horses as well. I certainly hope you are right…not a fan of Post myself…
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Post by CookiesNCream on Jan 24, 2018 8:39:24 GMT
Kind of looks like a toss with the official nominations. We may see a stronger probability between Three Billboards, The Shape of Water, Dunkirk,Lady Bird, and Phantom Thread.
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Post by politicidal on Jan 25, 2018 15:35:33 GMT
'The Lost City of Z' lost again.
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Post by kevin on Jan 25, 2018 20:50:08 GMT
I'm pretty sure it's between The Shape of Water & Three Billboards with Dunkirk also being a serious contender. I think the lack of a Best Director nomination will really hurt Three Billboards. If it is between Dunkirk & The Shape of Water I'm interested if they'll split the awards (so Dunkirk for director and The Shape of Water for best picture) or if one of them takes both. Get Out & Lady Bird are also possibilities, but they definitely have a smaller chance of winning than the first 3 and I'd be very surprised if Get Out or Lady Bird wins. Still I think it's not impossible that a movie like Call Me By Your Name or Phantom Thread can be a victorious underdog. It wouldn't be the weirdest thing to ever happen during the Oscars. This is easily one of the most unpredictable Best Picture categories in a while.
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Post by hi224 on Jan 25, 2018 21:41:12 GMT
Best picture is becoming more and more unpredictable.
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Post by Nora on Jan 28, 2018 2:51:38 GMT
Best picture is becoming more and more unpredictable. yep. At first I thought it was going to be Dunkirk. Then I switched to the Post. Currently I am thinking they will give it to Guillermo. What would make ME happy would be (of course) if they gave it to Three Billboards plus anyone other than Lady Bird (cute good movie but NOT best picture material!) or Get out (which IS a great movie, but in the current line up barely in the same league of great) I would be happy if it turned to to be, in this order: 1. Three Billboards 2. Call me By Your name 3. Darkest Hour but Darkest Hour is out for sure, Cal me and Three have a decent shot but only if Shape, feminism and positive discrimination step aside, I think.
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Post by Lebowskidoo 🦞 on Feb 4, 2018 22:01:40 GMT
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri seems to have the heat behind it, and it is worthy. But look how La La Land wound up last year. I loved The Shape of Water but ain't nobody gonna give a fish man that Oscar for sure!
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Post by bd74 on Feb 5, 2018 2:28:42 GMT
The Shape of Water has now become the frontrunner. Its wins: PGA award DGA award Critics' Choice for Best Film and likely to win the BAFTA award for Best Film
Three Billboards' wins: Golden Globe for Drama Film SAG ensemble award
So, Shape's wins trump Three Billboards' wins. But as we saw last year, anything could happen.
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