Post by Eva Yojimbo on Mar 26, 2018 14:54:21 GMT
Taken from THIS THREAD. I first pose the experiment here: IMDB2.freeforums.net/post/1486464/thread -- anyone interested in the context can back up and read the discussion between Cham and I that starts here: IMDB2.freeforums.net/post/1480594/thread:
I'll post a spoiler that offers a hint:
You've found a coin and immediately start flipping it. It lands on heads four times in a row. There are two hypotheses:
1. It's a fair coin
2. It's a trick coin
1. Predicts your results only 6% of the time (.5^4).
2. Predicts your results 100% of the time.
Do you think it's a trick coin? If so, why? If not, how many flips with the same result would it take to convince you?
1. It's a fair coin
2. It's a trick coin
1. Predicts your results only 6% of the time (.5^4).
2. Predicts your results 100% of the time.
Do you think it's a trick coin? If so, why? If not, how many flips with the same result would it take to convince you?
I'll post a spoiler that offers a hint:
It's really a trick question about a trick coin. The tricky answer is more about understanding the underlying problem with the question. One can still give a reasonable answer to it, but that's not really the point.