Post by damngumby on Jan 9, 2019 0:24:26 GMT
The likelihood of a participant going 0-for-4 would be 100% only if no duplicate picks were allowed (i.e. if no 2 participants can make the same picks). In this case, each participant's picks is independent of other participant's picks and thus duplicate picks can occur and thus the likelihood of any participant going 0-for-4 is very slim, since there are 15 of 16 ways to get at least 1 correct pick.
Of course we are talking about independent picks, duh!
Even common sense should tell you that the probability of someone going 0-4 increases with the number of people participating.
One person, the probability is, as you said, .0625, or approx 6%.
Two people, the probability of one of them going 0-4 increases to 12%
Three people, 17%
Ten people, 47%
21 people, 74%
No wonder you were afraid to dive into the deflategate science yourself, instead you just chose to believe everything the NFL spoon fed you.
What a putz.