Post by damngumby on Jan 9, 2019 7:31:35 GMT
Of course we are talking about independent picks, duh!
Even common sense should tell you that the probability of someone going 0-4 increases with the number of people participating.
One person, the probability is, as you said, .0625, or approx 6%.
Two people, the probability of one of them going 0-4 increases to 12%
Three people, 17%
Ten people, 47%
21 people, 74%
No wonder you were afraid to dive into the deflategate science yourself, instead you just chose to believe everything the NFL spoon fed you.
What a putz.
When the picks are independent of each other, the probability doesn't increase or decrease with more numbers. If you flip a coin, the probability is 50% heads and 50% tails. If you flip a coin and it turns up heads 20 straight times and you flip the coin a 21st time, the probability is still 50% heads and 50% tails. Because each flip of the coin is independent of all of the other flips.
Each participant makes their picks independent of everyone else's picks. So whether there are 21 participants or 121 participants, there are still 15 of 16 ways that a participant can get at least 1 correct pick.
Once again, you're analysis is flawed, just like your DeflateGate excuses.
The probability of it coming up heads at least once in 21 tries is almost 100%.
Just like the greatly increased probability of a whiff occurring at least once when 21 people make their picks instead of just one person.
That is, after all, what this is all about. You were incredulous that a whiff could occur in a large group because there was only a 1/16 chance it could happen to any one person.
Once again, you have misapplied some basic facts and come to the wrong conclusion. Common sense should have sounded an alarm that you were barking up the wrong tree. You might want to think about giving it a try sometime. Always Wrong.