If Black Panther wins any Oscars, they won't count.

I was going to say that too, but then I looked at the other nominations. The Favourite was pretty good, but it feels like it's only up there so they wouldn't have a record few amount of movies. I don't see Roma winning either, when the Artist won as a foreign language film, it was genuinely groundbreaking. You have to go an extra mile to win over English speakers with a non-English movie. And Vice actually wasn't that good... Bale's performance itself was mesmerizing but everything else was just 'there'. If you were to say Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody don't win, then among the rest BP has a legit shot.

Otherwise, yeah, I see it going to Green Book. But it's not as if T'Challa has no shot in hell, seems to be a weaker year at the top.