Post by dazz on Dec 30, 2019 6:38:15 GMT
One thing with reported estimates for a BE point is typically you will find they are low end estimates, based on a film making that amount in the US market where they collect the highest box office split, they will usually be just bellow double the production + marketing budgets, they can also factor in things like product placement which off set cost which SW due to it's nature cannot benefit from.
It's pretty simple you just take the budget in this case $275m supposedly, then you add onto that a likely marketing expense, using the last two Episode's as a baseline it's safe to give this a $185m marketing price tag as TFA had $184.5m and TLJ $185m respectively, so combine those numbers and we get $460m in cost, now if we apply best case scenario factors to that sort of budget the lowest BE point possible is about $840m, now if we apply the likely revenue split based off of what the previous SW films have had we actually get $1b, now that is supposing the supposed budget announce is true and that they didn't spend more on marketing than in previous years.
These numbers btw are based on the widely accepted financial breakdowns of the last few SW movies which most tout as legit so long as they make SW look profitable, though I bet yourself like many others don't actually bother to read and understand the breakdowns properly, I find them fascinating so I do, Disney doesn't take this huge larger profit split despite reports of them strong arming claim, they may force theatres to have to show SW on their largest screen non stop for 6 weeks but their % doesn't seem overly favourable.
Also all of this is just based on Budget + Marketing expenses, this does not include participation bonuses, interest or tax expenses, at it's rawest numbers TROS should need to break $1b before it makes even $1 in profit theatrically.
*Disney took 60% of the domestic BO for TFA, and 65% of the domestic BO for TLJ. For the sake of playing conservative, let's say that their take of the domestic BO for TROS is 60%, akin to TFA.
*I couldn't find Disney's cut for the international box office of the previous two films in the ST. Articles I've found mention that studios typically take ~40% of the international BO. They also say studios typically take ~53% of the domestic BO, leading one to wonder if Disney takes a larger-than-normal share of the international haul as well, but again, to be conservative, let's use the 40% figure.
*Right now TROS's box office is breaking down thusly: 48.5% domestic/51.5% international.
Using these numbers, I calculate that the BE point is ~$930m.
$275m production budget + $185m marketing costs = $460m total budget
((930m x .485) x.6) + ((930m x .515) x .4) = $462.21m
So already, at $930m, they will be in the black.
TLJ, a film that had a similar negative fan backlash as TROS, had a 2.82 multiplier (domestic box office/biggest weekend). I have reason to believe that TROS will have a larger multiplier, for while TLJ's box office performance fell right in the middle of its "expected performance range" (projected total box office based on opening weekend), TROS is currently trending above its EPR, showing that it has stronger legs. Further evidence of this theory is the Week 2 drop-off of both films: 67% for TLJ compared to 59% for TROS. To once again be conservative, let's assume a 2.82 multiplier, which would equal a total domestic BO of $499.98m. If the current domestic/international breakdown holds, total worldwide BO would come in at ~$1.03b, or $100m above the BE point.
But wait, there's more...
TLJ, with all of its "divisiveness", still pulled in $88m in estimated Blu-ray and DVD sales. Then we have to factor in digital sales, which I couldn't find hard numbers for re: the previous ST films, but which have generally outpaced physical sales of films in recent years. We can assume that, if TLJ made $88m in physical sales, it made at least that much in digital sales, for a combined $176m. Assuming a drop-off in sales akin to the drop-off in BO, TROS would come in at ~$136m. (I have no idea, and am too tired to research, what percentage of this would be profit after taking away production and distribution costs.)
Then we have to figure in Video On Demand rentals, streaming revenue, etc. Even then, that's just revenue directly related to the film. If we add in TROS-related merchandise, then that's even more dough. (I would argue that having a film playing in theaters could reasonably be expected to boost sales in other SW-related content, such as video games, but I admit that I have no hard data to prove this theory.)
So, even using conservative numbers (e.g. a 60/40 revenue split for domestic BO and 40/60 split for international BO, a multiplier akin to TLJ even though TROS is showing better legs, etc.), it's clear that the film will undoubtedly make a nine-figure profit.
p.s. This is what I did instead of getting reading done on a book I just started. It's been fun, though.
Dunno where you got your figures from mate but I got mine from Deadline who is who most of the other places take the figures from including Wikipedia, they have TFA at 55% domestic and 40% international, TLJ isn't as easily work out able as they just lumped overall revenue globally together but kept BO totals separate, but TLJ according to them took back 46% of it's global box office, which fits with TFA also, in terms of home media and TV/Streaming rights TLJ took in $222m home media and I think $165m TV/Streaming, all of which will likely take a considerable hit this time around due to Disney+, but with the TV & Media sales TLJ made around $385m and had around $130-40m cost associated with such, on top of $70m in off the top and participation cost.
So 70m added cost to this movie if it breaks $1b possibly over $100m if Ford is asking for his same money he did in TFA, oh and TFA to TLJ saw TLJ lose almost 50% of it's media & global rights sales, TFA did over $700m with that compared to the $385m or so of TLJ according to Deadline, which again could also see a huge dip this time around due to Disney+.
TROS isn't as divisive as TLJ btw most fans seem to enjoy it, it's the critics that were wishy washy over it, so that may be a good thing for TROS.
Also yes I know all about the other methods for Disney to make money from the movie, anyone with half a brain does, problem is Disney can do that without the movies, the movie needs to make money or cause a surge in sales for Disney to keep making them, if the movies fail to be profitable on their own, and they fail to boost merchandise sales, which if you have paid attention since TLJ Disney Star Wars merch sales have taken a considerable hit, dropping over $1b in sales in just 2 years, they wont spend $200m+ on 150 minute movies when they can spend half of that and get 4-5 hours of TV where they can create and promote new merch that way for longer for more exposure and half the cost.
It isn't about if it will make money, theatrically it could or could not depends if the movies legs hold out and so long as the estimated cost of the film do not rise, as of right now it's $460m outright and $70-100m in potential bonus's for $530-560m IF the movie crosses $1b which looks to be a certainty right now, but then crossing $1b incurs extra cost and to cover for that extra $70-100m the film needs to gross an additional $150-220m to break even theatrically I underlined and made that bold because many people seem to not grasp that concept, many films become profitable even after being box office bombs, films like Showgirls was a massive flop in theatres but made $100m+ in VHS sales making it a profitable movie.
Some films such as Batman get away with certain bombs in the theatres due to additional revenue, BVS was a theatrical flop but Batman saw over a 50% increase in merch sales after the movie was announced and has been over or near to the $1b a year in merch sales every year since, so they don't care if they lose $40m on a movie when they are making $500m in additional merch sales, if TLJ and Solo are anything to go by though that may not be the case with TROS, but that's a wait and see game, as is all the additional revenue with TROS, which is in the bad state of being in the experimental period for Disney, it wont have as much of those big 9 figure paydays to bolster it's bottom line due to Disney's new streaming service, it may make Disney more money overall but less will be credited to TROS than would be if it came out before hand.