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Post by Eva Yojimbo on Feb 21, 2020 15:23:23 GMT
I asked precisely what I wanted to know with my questions and I gave you all the information necessary to answer it. Phludowin and general313 have already solved it. Rest of your post is tangential rambling that nobody cares about. Apparently you think flinging insults protects from your obvious failures on this and other such subjects you pretend to be an expert on. The very fact that you feel compelled to call me "stupid," a "failure," and accuse me of having "socks" all because you can't do a simple math problem says a great deal about you. It would be much better for your soul, Arlon, to simply admit that sometimes you don't know/understand something, and that's OK, rather than projecting all your failings onto others. This could be the basis for another probability problem: What is the probability that Arlon will submit an answer to the Ball Problem in the OP? And if he does, what is the probability that it will be correct? I might give him this last day before I post my own solution. When I posted this I was genuinely unsure about whether Arlon would be able to solve it. I put my own "prior" at about 60/40 that he wouldn't, but he has been able to solve some math problems in the past. Thing is that I knew he didn't understand Bayes, and I knew his "solution" to Monty Hall was a kind of intuitive cheat, so I wanted to see if he could utilize that same intuitive method on a more complex problem. I genuinely didn't know if he could, but I was interested to find out. I was, at least, hoping he'd try before I posted the answer. Very happy that at least you and phludowin solved it. I expected as much, though, since y'all are smart cats. 
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