|
|
Post by general313 on Feb 21, 2020 15:52:42 GMT
This could be the basis for another probability problem: What is the probability that Arlon will submit an answer to the Ball Problem in the OP? And if he does, what is the probability that it will be correct? I might give him this last day before I post my own solution. When I posted this I was genuinely unsure about whether Arlon would be able to solve it. I put my own "prior" at about 60/40 that he wouldn't, but he has been able to solve some math problems in the past. Thing is that I knew he didn't understand Bayes, and I knew his "solution" to Monty Hall was a kind of intuitive cheat, so I wanted to see if he could utilize that same intuitive method on a more complex problem. I genuinely didn't know if he could, but I was interested to find out. I was, at least, hoping he'd try before I posted the answer. Very happy that at least you and phludowin solved it. I expected as much, though, since y'all are smart cats.  First off, thanks, such a compliment coming from you is an honor. I do think if Arlon got off his high chair and got his hands dirty, he would be quite capable of solving this problem. What holds him back is not so much ability but attitude, in my opinion.
|
|
