A Hairy, Ballsy Problem

A Hairy, Ballsy Problem Feb 23, 2020 10:21:08 GMT

Quote

Post by Arlon10 on Feb 23, 2020 10:21:08 GMT

Feb 23, 2020 4:51:56 GMT Eva Yojimbo said:

Feb 22, 2020 10:12:25 GMT Arlon10 said:

   Congratulations to you and dividavi on your English. I wasn't sure what the question was till I saw dividavi 's answer. I can see now what "Is one bag more probable than the other?" means. I suppose I should have guessed that, so I will say the English is fair to middling. It would however be more clear if you said "There are four identical bags with ten marbles each of various colors. (Provide a list of the colors of the marbles in each bag.) A person then picks a blue marble from one of the bags. What is the probability it is from bag 1? Bag 2? Bag 3 Bag4?"

   I think what often happens here is that people who follow these things are familiar with the type of problem and understand the English shorthand better than people who are not familiar. Same thing with the Monty Hall problem, it escapes the attention of some people that the host's choice is not random and how important that is.

   I also notice Bayes' Theorem was not used. Nor do I believe anyone could use Bayes' Theorem without solving the problem otherwise first.

   I realize some of you don't care what I think. Don't then.

Are you serious right now? "Is one bag more probable than the other" means... literally precisely that. I can't think of a way to phrase that any more clearly. If all bags are equally likely, the answer is "no." If one bag is more probable than the others, the answer is "yes." "How much more probable" is a way of saying "do the math and give each bag its proper probability."

Bayes's Theorem was used here: IMDB2.freeforums.net/post/3693057/thread That's precisely what I used to solve the problem well before dividavi (in a PM I sent to Aj). Phludowin and general313 also did so before him. I can screenshot these solutions with timestamps if you don't believe me.

Here's a probability question for you, "What is the probability timestamps from this forum reflect real life sequences of events?" For 30,000 people? For 300 people? For 3 people? For one person with 3 socks?

Here's another question. Link. Go ahead and answer it. I won't be upset if you get the answer right. It's not as difficult as it is fascinating.