Post by drystyx on Nov 5, 2020 17:38:20 GMT
First, the news about sprint favorite VEKOMA scratching with the fever. I don't know if covid is a factor, and maybe the vet doesn't know yet, and I don't know if the track would say if there was an outbreak.
But, this isn't unusual. Only one fever among the hundreds of entrants in cup races, that's probably even less than typical, so I don't think it's a factor until we get over a dozen such scratches.
First of all, the big one:
Saturday, November 7, 2020, Keeneland's 12th Race, Grade 1 Classic at 1 1/4 mile on dirt.
1. TACITUS 12-1. Expect horsemen and old pros to go with Mott, since these are all class runners, all big boys, and handicappers in this case usually go with the best trainer, the one who would only enter the race if he had the horse (or colt or mare or filly, I'll go generic with "horse" from hereon), at 200% and fit. On the other hand, Mott entered a lot of runners for this date in other races, and that isn't a good sign. It's more of a sign of assistants making claims too optimistic. Still, I can't see Mott going with this one unless he's perfect. If he isn't perfect, Mott will scratch him any way, and I get a refund.
2. TIZ THE LAW 9-2 looks to be the top three year old, but the big races have indicated, if not proven, that this is a terrible batch of three year old males, with a filly who couldn't win the Oaks destroying them. After winning the 1 1/2 mile Belmont and 1 1/4 Travers, this one is tuckered out, and going downhill. He may bounce back up, but demand value for that.
3. BY MY STANDARDS 30-1 but that's a bit of an overlay. He just isn't a big name. He's a 4 year old who ran 12th in last year's Kentucky Derby, and 2nd in a grade 1 (the Whitney at Saratoga) two races back, to Improbable.
4. TOM'S D'ETAT 15-1 should actually be higher odds than Standards, but probably won't be. He ran third in that same Whitney stakes. He's 7 years old, and that works in his favor. Last year, around this season, he was good, wining two consecutive races, Grade 2 and Grade 1.
5. TITLE READY 40-1 and Dallas Stewart is no longer a well kept secret. He never was among handicappers who used his Golden Soul and Commanding Curve in past derbies at long odds. Those were superior bred ones. This one also has a great pedigree, but at age 5 has not shown this level of class. He ran 5th and 3rd in Grade 3 races this year. That doesn't bespeak of Breeder Cup classic material, but his last race was at Keeneland, which traditionally is where the best horses in the world do run. I usually use Stewart, as he gave me good payouts in the aforementioned derbies, but I think you have to be a Dallas Stewart fan to go with this one.
6. HIGHER POWER 40-1 another 5 year old, but this one invades from the West, typically a good place to come from with horses into Kentucky. He ran 4th to Maximum Security in a Grade 1 at this distance last outing. Good bloodlines.
7. GLOBAL CAMPAIGN 10-1 a 4 year old who won his last two races, the most recent a Grade 1 at Saratoga, at this distance, beating Tacitus, and you know I like Tacitus. Certainly a contender.
8. IMPROBABLE 9-5 as we get to the Baffert trio. This 4 year old was fifth, moved up to 4th, in last year's Derby, which was a good group. He's won three races in a row, all grade one races, so he deserves to be favored here.
9. AUTHENTIC 8-1 is Baffert's 3 year old among a weak 3 year old crop, and he's a speedball from the gate, so any improvement makes him very dangerous. He won this year's Kentucky Derby, but that race looked very strange with jockeys allowing the two low price horses to get big easy leads all down the backstretch. Still, Baffert is always a contender
10. MAXIMUM SECURITY 3-1 is a sentimental choice for the rich elitists and the crowd that don't usually follow horse racing. We still get mobsters crying about last year's Derby, and he is the class here. He wasn't even trained by Baffert in last year's Kentucky Derby, where he won and was rightfully disqualified the same way so many high price non mob horses were disqualified for the same interference before the race. Now that he has Baffert caring for him with the best that money can buy, one can expect him to be tough. In fact, I think he's more of a threat than Improbable. Oh, almost forgot-He won the Grade 1 Pacific on the West coast at this distance, before finishing second to Improbable in the Grade 2 Awesome Again at 1 1/8 mile, a furlong shorter than this race. Looks like the "go to Baffert runner" here.
But, this isn't unusual. Only one fever among the hundreds of entrants in cup races, that's probably even less than typical, so I don't think it's a factor until we get over a dozen such scratches.
First of all, the big one:
Saturday, November 7, 2020, Keeneland's 12th Race, Grade 1 Classic at 1 1/4 mile on dirt.
1. TACITUS 12-1. Expect horsemen and old pros to go with Mott, since these are all class runners, all big boys, and handicappers in this case usually go with the best trainer, the one who would only enter the race if he had the horse (or colt or mare or filly, I'll go generic with "horse" from hereon), at 200% and fit. On the other hand, Mott entered a lot of runners for this date in other races, and that isn't a good sign. It's more of a sign of assistants making claims too optimistic. Still, I can't see Mott going with this one unless he's perfect. If he isn't perfect, Mott will scratch him any way, and I get a refund.
2. TIZ THE LAW 9-2 looks to be the top three year old, but the big races have indicated, if not proven, that this is a terrible batch of three year old males, with a filly who couldn't win the Oaks destroying them. After winning the 1 1/2 mile Belmont and 1 1/4 Travers, this one is tuckered out, and going downhill. He may bounce back up, but demand value for that.
3. BY MY STANDARDS 30-1 but that's a bit of an overlay. He just isn't a big name. He's a 4 year old who ran 12th in last year's Kentucky Derby, and 2nd in a grade 1 (the Whitney at Saratoga) two races back, to Improbable.
4. TOM'S D'ETAT 15-1 should actually be higher odds than Standards, but probably won't be. He ran third in that same Whitney stakes. He's 7 years old, and that works in his favor. Last year, around this season, he was good, wining two consecutive races, Grade 2 and Grade 1.
5. TITLE READY 40-1 and Dallas Stewart is no longer a well kept secret. He never was among handicappers who used his Golden Soul and Commanding Curve in past derbies at long odds. Those were superior bred ones. This one also has a great pedigree, but at age 5 has not shown this level of class. He ran 5th and 3rd in Grade 3 races this year. That doesn't bespeak of Breeder Cup classic material, but his last race was at Keeneland, which traditionally is where the best horses in the world do run. I usually use Stewart, as he gave me good payouts in the aforementioned derbies, but I think you have to be a Dallas Stewart fan to go with this one.
6. HIGHER POWER 40-1 another 5 year old, but this one invades from the West, typically a good place to come from with horses into Kentucky. He ran 4th to Maximum Security in a Grade 1 at this distance last outing. Good bloodlines.
7. GLOBAL CAMPAIGN 10-1 a 4 year old who won his last two races, the most recent a Grade 1 at Saratoga, at this distance, beating Tacitus, and you know I like Tacitus. Certainly a contender.
8. IMPROBABLE 9-5 as we get to the Baffert trio. This 4 year old was fifth, moved up to 4th, in last year's Derby, which was a good group. He's won three races in a row, all grade one races, so he deserves to be favored here.
9. AUTHENTIC 8-1 is Baffert's 3 year old among a weak 3 year old crop, and he's a speedball from the gate, so any improvement makes him very dangerous. He won this year's Kentucky Derby, but that race looked very strange with jockeys allowing the two low price horses to get big easy leads all down the backstretch. Still, Baffert is always a contender
10. MAXIMUM SECURITY 3-1 is a sentimental choice for the rich elitists and the crowd that don't usually follow horse racing. We still get mobsters crying about last year's Derby, and he is the class here. He wasn't even trained by Baffert in last year's Kentucky Derby, where he won and was rightfully disqualified the same way so many high price non mob horses were disqualified for the same interference before the race. Now that he has Baffert caring for him with the best that money can buy, one can expect him to be tough. In fact, I think he's more of a threat than Improbable. Oh, almost forgot-He won the Grade 1 Pacific on the West coast at this distance, before finishing second to Improbable in the Grade 2 Awesome Again at 1 1/8 mile, a furlong shorter than this race. Looks like the "go to Baffert runner" here.