Post by drystyx on Nov 5, 2020 23:23:39 GMT
Friday is the Juvenile day for all you delinquents.
Friday 11-6-2020, Keeneland's 6th Race: 5 1/2 furlong Turf for 2 year olds.
1. MIGHTY GURKHA 30-1 British invader whose last race was terrible, but had good races before that. He began his racing career in June, which is early for a two year old, so I'm under the impression his last race is start of a downhill trend, but he could bounce back.
2. WINDY CITY RED 20-1 Third in an ungraded stakes at Santa Anita. Could fit here, but should be a long shot
3. LIPIZZANER 12-1 British invader. O'Brien usually has more British invaders than anyone in Breeder's Cup, and he comes here again. He doesn't usually outrun his odds. Solid enough, though. Golden Pal beat him, but not by much. Looks like O'Brien thinks he's improved. Looks like a "wise guy" horse.
4. COUNTY FINAL 12-1 First of the two Asmussen runners. Ran 4th in a Grade 3, beaten by three others here, but looks like a steady runner, and Asmussen is good with two year old runners. Actually had one of the better forward moves in the Belmont race.
5. COWAN 9-2 has not been in a graded stakes, but has good form, coming from behind to finish on the board in the last two, once at Keeneland. And Asmussen is tops with two year olds. Very strong contender
6. UBETTABELIEVEIT 20-1 One of the Beatles. Well, one of the British invasion, but from overseas form, he's outclassed. He's the Ringo of the British group. But Ringo gave us some classics. Won't dismiss.
7, MOMOS 6-1 Clemente hasn't been heard from much lately, but he's a big gun. This is one with early speed. He began on dirt, but went to turf last time to run third in a Grade 3 after leading most of the way. Could be the change in surface, since turf runners come from behind more often than dirt runners, so improvement is expected. Will it be enough? He has Forty Niner bloodlines in him, which usually means good sprinting from off the pace in distances like these, and improvement with age. He could be good enough now.
8. AMANZI YIMPILO 15-1 This the first of seven runners that Wesley Ward entered in this race, which means he thinks little of the competition, but no one has seven Grade 1 runners of the same classification. This one ran well out West, but has not been in graded stakes.
9. AFTER FIVE 30-1 Ward's maiden never won a race. Ward is showing that he thinks all of his stable is about equal, and that means these longer shots are better than they appear, and his favorites are worse than they appear. There's too many to take seriously.
10. BODENHEIMER 20-1 One of the few non-Ward runners with super early foot in ungraded races, and takes a class hike, dangerous for those with early foot.
11. INTO THE SUNRISE 15-1 Wesley Ward tries to cover all the bases. This is a speedy one from the gate, and faded to fourth at Keeneland in a Grade 2. There should be more speed in a Grade 1, so demand a big price if you play it.
12. DIRTY DANGLE 10-1 Two for two, no graded stakes. Mark Casse usually has them run super or mediocre. One doesn't expect him to run third or fourth. This one was in Canada, where they typically run very fast times, although the last two years that's tapered off, so perhaps Woodbine's race course isn't as rock hard as it was. This is a FILLIE, so demand value.
13. SECOND OF JULY 6-1 is two for two, winning a grade 3 and looking good, but this is a class test. He looks like one of the contenders off of form.
14. GOLDEN PAL 7-2 Ward's expected favorite. Won a grade 2 in Great Britain at Ascot before traveling the U.S. where he won an ungraded stakes in New York. DRF picks him as an 8-5 favorite. I have to be skeptical when Ward puts a zillion runners in this race, like he's trying desperately, and none are stellar.
15. BLAME THE BOOZE AE Ward hammering away here. 9th in a Grade 2 at Keeneland. Has been in longer races, so expect this one, if he draws in, to be Ward's late runner.
16. SYPSY KING AE Ward again. 5th in the last two, one a grade 3, the other ungraded. Like most of Ward's, has early foot.
17. TRADE DEAL AE-Yep, Wesley Ward again. Won a maiden, then sixth in a Grade 3. Truly bespeaks of a desperate stable
STYXPIX:
3. LIPPIZANNER
5. Cowan
4. County Final
7. Momos
Friday 11-6-2020, Keeneland's 6th Race: 5 1/2 furlong Turf for 2 year olds.
1. MIGHTY GURKHA 30-1 British invader whose last race was terrible, but had good races before that. He began his racing career in June, which is early for a two year old, so I'm under the impression his last race is start of a downhill trend, but he could bounce back.
2. WINDY CITY RED 20-1 Third in an ungraded stakes at Santa Anita. Could fit here, but should be a long shot
3. LIPIZZANER 12-1 British invader. O'Brien usually has more British invaders than anyone in Breeder's Cup, and he comes here again. He doesn't usually outrun his odds. Solid enough, though. Golden Pal beat him, but not by much. Looks like O'Brien thinks he's improved. Looks like a "wise guy" horse.
4. COUNTY FINAL 12-1 First of the two Asmussen runners. Ran 4th in a Grade 3, beaten by three others here, but looks like a steady runner, and Asmussen is good with two year old runners. Actually had one of the better forward moves in the Belmont race.
5. COWAN 9-2 has not been in a graded stakes, but has good form, coming from behind to finish on the board in the last two, once at Keeneland. And Asmussen is tops with two year olds. Very strong contender
6. UBETTABELIEVEIT 20-1 One of the Beatles. Well, one of the British invasion, but from overseas form, he's outclassed. He's the Ringo of the British group. But Ringo gave us some classics. Won't dismiss.
7, MOMOS 6-1 Clemente hasn't been heard from much lately, but he's a big gun. This is one with early speed. He began on dirt, but went to turf last time to run third in a Grade 3 after leading most of the way. Could be the change in surface, since turf runners come from behind more often than dirt runners, so improvement is expected. Will it be enough? He has Forty Niner bloodlines in him, which usually means good sprinting from off the pace in distances like these, and improvement with age. He could be good enough now.
8. AMANZI YIMPILO 15-1 This the first of seven runners that Wesley Ward entered in this race, which means he thinks little of the competition, but no one has seven Grade 1 runners of the same classification. This one ran well out West, but has not been in graded stakes.
9. AFTER FIVE 30-1 Ward's maiden never won a race. Ward is showing that he thinks all of his stable is about equal, and that means these longer shots are better than they appear, and his favorites are worse than they appear. There's too many to take seriously.
10. BODENHEIMER 20-1 One of the few non-Ward runners with super early foot in ungraded races, and takes a class hike, dangerous for those with early foot.
11. INTO THE SUNRISE 15-1 Wesley Ward tries to cover all the bases. This is a speedy one from the gate, and faded to fourth at Keeneland in a Grade 2. There should be more speed in a Grade 1, so demand a big price if you play it.
12. DIRTY DANGLE 10-1 Two for two, no graded stakes. Mark Casse usually has them run super or mediocre. One doesn't expect him to run third or fourth. This one was in Canada, where they typically run very fast times, although the last two years that's tapered off, so perhaps Woodbine's race course isn't as rock hard as it was. This is a FILLIE, so demand value.
13. SECOND OF JULY 6-1 is two for two, winning a grade 3 and looking good, but this is a class test. He looks like one of the contenders off of form.
14. GOLDEN PAL 7-2 Ward's expected favorite. Won a grade 2 in Great Britain at Ascot before traveling the U.S. where he won an ungraded stakes in New York. DRF picks him as an 8-5 favorite. I have to be skeptical when Ward puts a zillion runners in this race, like he's trying desperately, and none are stellar.
15. BLAME THE BOOZE AE Ward hammering away here. 9th in a Grade 2 at Keeneland. Has been in longer races, so expect this one, if he draws in, to be Ward's late runner.
16. SYPSY KING AE Ward again. 5th in the last two, one a grade 3, the other ungraded. Like most of Ward's, has early foot.
17. TRADE DEAL AE-Yep, Wesley Ward again. Won a maiden, then sixth in a Grade 3. Truly bespeaks of a desperate stable
STYXPIX:
3. LIPPIZANNER
5. Cowan
4. County Final
7. Momos