BREEDER'S CUP thread

Friday 11-6-2020 Keeneland Breeders Cup Race 10, Grade 1 2 year old 1 1/16 mile.

Now this is the champion race for 2 year old prospects for next year's Kentucky Derby, but that's like saying a 2 year old is going to beat a 3 year old, so it's unlikely a Kentucky Derby winner will be in the race. This is for colts who have matured early, as a rule.

What is the likelihood? Well, there are good trainers here, but most here are known as "2 year old trainers" who train "hard". That doesn't mean "bad". It just means they're ready from day one, and aren't likely to improve as much as someone trained by Mott or McGaughey or Stewart or McGlaughlin.

The field:
1. CAMP HOPE 30-1 First of two McPeek horses. Has had one race, a maiden win, so this is a huge class test. Demand value of at least 25-1 if you like him.

2. KING FURTY 30-1 McPeek is someone I never had a winner with, and since this one looks outclassed, running 8th in the race where he faced the likes of these, he'll probably beat me.
 
3. REINVESTMENT RISK 9-2 Chad Brown has been more threatening than even Baffert the past five years. This one has a lot of class, but some will regard him as a "seconditis" horse from his two second place finishes in Grade 1 races in New York. He's bred to be good as a two year old.

4. LIKEABLE 30-1 comes off maiden win for Pletcher, a great one with two year old runners.

5. ESSENTIAL QUALITY 7-2 is undefeated in two races for Brad Cox, and is actually the class of the race. 

6. KEEPMEINMIND 30-1 is a maiden, but more maidens are winning these races than they did in the last century. Was second in a Grade 1 last time out, so he's dangerous.

7. JACKIE'S WARRIOR 9-5 is one of the Asmussen runners, and we all know how good Asmussen is with 2 year old runners. He's undefeated in four starts, including two Grade 1 races 

8. CLASSIER 12-1 Even Baffert can't be favored with this one who has only won a maiden race, and is going into the premier Grade 1 race for two year olds now. Has to be considered, though, because Baffert gets great stock.

9. SITTIN ON GO 15-1 is a well bred runner for Dale Romans, although bred to run better at age 3 and 4. He is undefeated in two races now, though, including a Grade 3 at Churchill. I'm surprise d Romans is pushing this one who is bred for the Derby. Maybe he's that good now.

10. DREAMER'S DISEASE 20-1. won an optional claiming at Keeneland, which isn't an endorsement for class, but it is a win. Long shot.

11. NEXT 20-1-took four races to break his maiden. Is bred to be better at age 3 and 4. Could he be good enough now?

13. ROMBAUER 15-1 Ran a decent race to be second in California last time out. Has some class. 

14. CALIBRATE 30-1 Asmussen usually has two years ready. This one ran poorly in a Grade 1 at Keeneland, but is a Distorted Humor (Forty Niner) son, who should get better. Hard to see improving this much, though.



STYXPIX: 
5. ESSENTIAL QUALITY
3 Reinvestment Risk
9. Sittin on Go
13. Rombauer