Post by drystyx on Nov 7, 2020 4:58:55 GMT
Saturday 11-7-2020 Keeneland Breeder's Cup Race 5 Grade 1 Turf Sprint 5 1/2 furlongs.
Short race, big field. I don't have scratches yet, so this is lengthy.
1. BIG RUNNER 12-1 won his only graded stakes race last out, a Grade 2 out West. He has speed and rises in class. I avoid that sort as a rule, since a classier field should have more front running pressure. But, this isn't as speed laden as most Breeder Cup Sprints, so strategy is going to be tough to figure.
2. JUST MIGHT 30-1 stalks off the pace and ran third in two straight Grade 2 races in large fields. Tough to see here, though. Looks like he was entered simply because he belonged off last race.
3. IMPRNIS 8-1 comes off two straight Grade 3 wins, most recently at the big purse track of Kentucky Downs, with the wild and wooly race course an sixth in last year's Breeder's Cup Turf Sprint out West. Just looks like a sucker bet, but may show me different.
4. FRONT RUN THE FED 15-1 was second in a Grade 3 for Chad Brown at Churchill, and that looks to be a training board for this race. The good moves at the slow Aqueduct course is very impressive.
5. QWR YOUE QHIARLW 12-1 is on the improve, off a Grade 3 win, and did win a Grade 1 in Canada in 2019, but tailed off late in the Autumn, which is where we are now.
6. GLASS SLIPPERS 4-1 is a class fillie from overseas, France, with speed to go all the way, it appears. She may be up front by herself, depending on who draws in.
7. LEINSTER 9-2 has won two consecutive Grade 2 races here at Keenland, and may be the favorite in an evenly matched field.
8. OLEKSANTIRA 10-1 Mare shows dangerous forward moves, most recently winning a grade one in open company, and doing it the hard way, from way back. Can't ignore. But that was a lifetime best race, and hard to see her not bouncing.
9. INTO MYSTIC 30-1 Walsh fillie stalks the pace in Grade 3 races, and should be close to the lead here in order to have a chance. Not seeing it, but fillies have been doing well the past decade against boys.
10. BOMBARD 12-1 shows speed in longer races, and in cheaper races. Not sure how close to the pace he'll be. Looks like an outsider here.
11. WILDMAN JACK 8-1 comes from the West, fourth in a Grade 1 and second in a Grade 2, and doesn't go near the lead as a rule. Not sure he'll get a hot pace to run at, but he's a definite contender.
12. GOT STORMY 8-1 Has been improving for Mark Casse, an all or bust style trainer. Since this one won two consecutive Grade 3 races, I don't look for a third consecutive win, but it could happen.
13. TEXAS WEDGE 30-1 would have to have a form reversal for any chance. Has some decent races in past, but none that threaten a Breeders Cup group. However, Miller trains this one, and that makes him worth a look.
14. EXTRAVAGANT KID 12-1 ran second in Grade 2 at Keeneland for Walsh, who usually does well with lower price horses. He doesn't "turn horses around" as much as the class trainSers, but he's a good trainer. This one is a contender who belongs here.
15. EQUILATERAL AE British invader who was beaten fairly well by Glass Slippers, and tailed off. Would have to turn it around.
16. CHAOS THEORY AE I would call this the best of the "also eligible" ones. Had decent moves at Keeneland, Fairgrounds, and other turf tracks with slower times than many other tracks, and he could go unnotice. Should come from behind. Won a Grade 3 at Del Mar and then ran fourth here at Keeneland in a Grade 2.
17. ARCHIDUST AE Asmussen runner has good moves at Belmont, Monmouth, and Gulfstream, recently running 3rd in a Grade 3 six furlong at New York.
18. BULLETPROOF ONE AE Peter Miller, last year's phenom trainer in the Breeders Cup races, trains this fillie who rises in class considerably and has early speed. Would be a mild surprise, but could take it in a field that isn't totally speed laden, if she draws in.
There isn't a ton of early speed, and so I would venture this large field will have several going to the front, and I'll handicap for the fast pace:
STYXPIX:
4. FRONT RUN THE FED
16. (if he draws in from also eligible list) Chaos Theory
14. Extravagant Kid
6. Glass Slippers
8. Oleksandra
Short race, big field. I don't have scratches yet, so this is lengthy.
1. BIG RUNNER 12-1 won his only graded stakes race last out, a Grade 2 out West. He has speed and rises in class. I avoid that sort as a rule, since a classier field should have more front running pressure. But, this isn't as speed laden as most Breeder Cup Sprints, so strategy is going to be tough to figure.
2. JUST MIGHT 30-1 stalks off the pace and ran third in two straight Grade 2 races in large fields. Tough to see here, though. Looks like he was entered simply because he belonged off last race.
3. IMPRNIS 8-1 comes off two straight Grade 3 wins, most recently at the big purse track of Kentucky Downs, with the wild and wooly race course an sixth in last year's Breeder's Cup Turf Sprint out West. Just looks like a sucker bet, but may show me different.
4. FRONT RUN THE FED 15-1 was second in a Grade 3 for Chad Brown at Churchill, and that looks to be a training board for this race. The good moves at the slow Aqueduct course is very impressive.
5. QWR YOUE QHIARLW 12-1 is on the improve, off a Grade 3 win, and did win a Grade 1 in Canada in 2019, but tailed off late in the Autumn, which is where we are now.
6. GLASS SLIPPERS 4-1 is a class fillie from overseas, France, with speed to go all the way, it appears. She may be up front by herself, depending on who draws in.
7. LEINSTER 9-2 has won two consecutive Grade 2 races here at Keenland, and may be the favorite in an evenly matched field.
8. OLEKSANTIRA 10-1 Mare shows dangerous forward moves, most recently winning a grade one in open company, and doing it the hard way, from way back. Can't ignore. But that was a lifetime best race, and hard to see her not bouncing.
9. INTO MYSTIC 30-1 Walsh fillie stalks the pace in Grade 3 races, and should be close to the lead here in order to have a chance. Not seeing it, but fillies have been doing well the past decade against boys.
10. BOMBARD 12-1 shows speed in longer races, and in cheaper races. Not sure how close to the pace he'll be. Looks like an outsider here.
11. WILDMAN JACK 8-1 comes from the West, fourth in a Grade 1 and second in a Grade 2, and doesn't go near the lead as a rule. Not sure he'll get a hot pace to run at, but he's a definite contender.
12. GOT STORMY 8-1 Has been improving for Mark Casse, an all or bust style trainer. Since this one won two consecutive Grade 3 races, I don't look for a third consecutive win, but it could happen.
13. TEXAS WEDGE 30-1 would have to have a form reversal for any chance. Has some decent races in past, but none that threaten a Breeders Cup group. However, Miller trains this one, and that makes him worth a look.
14. EXTRAVAGANT KID 12-1 ran second in Grade 2 at Keeneland for Walsh, who usually does well with lower price horses. He doesn't "turn horses around" as much as the class trainSers, but he's a good trainer. This one is a contender who belongs here.
15. EQUILATERAL AE British invader who was beaten fairly well by Glass Slippers, and tailed off. Would have to turn it around.
16. CHAOS THEORY AE I would call this the best of the "also eligible" ones. Had decent moves at Keeneland, Fairgrounds, and other turf tracks with slower times than many other tracks, and he could go unnotice. Should come from behind. Won a Grade 3 at Del Mar and then ran fourth here at Keeneland in a Grade 2.
17. ARCHIDUST AE Asmussen runner has good moves at Belmont, Monmouth, and Gulfstream, recently running 3rd in a Grade 3 six furlong at New York.
18. BULLETPROOF ONE AE Peter Miller, last year's phenom trainer in the Breeders Cup races, trains this fillie who rises in class considerably and has early speed. Would be a mild surprise, but could take it in a field that isn't totally speed laden, if she draws in.
There isn't a ton of early speed, and so I would venture this large field will have several going to the front, and I'll handicap for the fast pace:
STYXPIX:
4. FRONT RUN THE FED
16. (if he draws in from also eligible list) Chaos Theory
14. Extravagant Kid
6. Glass Slippers
8. Oleksandra