Post by drystyx on Nov 7, 2020 17:29:15 GMT
11-7-2020 Keeneland Breeder's Cup Race 7: Grade 1 F and M Turf 1 3/16 mile
Some handicappers like to handicap off of shorter races, because it's hard to find this distance in past performances, and longer distances don't let you know what they'll do when not rated so hard.
Comparing some from a mile and an eighth and some from a mile and some from other distances, trying to figure where they are at that particular track in the turn or backstretch, it's a lot of guess work actually.
1. STARSHIP JUBILEE 8-1 Comes off Grade 1 win in Canada against open company. Should help press the pace.
2. SISTERCHARLIE 6-1 one of Chad Brown's runners here. Was third in this same race last year.
3. PEACEFUL 20-1 British invader comes off dismal performance, but if you draw a line through that one, this is another top contender. O'Brien could get a price play here.
4. MEAN MARY 8-1 Figures to go to the lead. Won three of four graded stakes races. Must catch her.
5. MY SISTER NAT 8-1 Competitive in five straight graded stakes for Chad Brown. Another good one in super deep field.
6. RUSHING FAIL 4-1 Chad Brown's most well endorsed contender here comes off three straight graded stakes victories, the past two being Grade 1.
7. TEREBELLUM 20-1 British invader looks to stalk. Was 5th last time out at Newmarket.
8. MUCHO UNUSUAL 12-1 Grade 1 win out West, at low odds, usually runs against just one class level lower. Don't see it this time. Next time, when she goes to Grade 2 or 3.
9, HARVEY'S LIL GOIL 8-1 Mott second only to McCaughey as a trainer to most veteran horse players. This one won a grade 1 last time out at Keeneland.
10. CIVIL UNION 12-1 If it wasn't for Shug training this one, I probably wouldn't give it much of a look. But his patience with this lightly raced 5 year old bears notice, and he is still the best trainer in horse racing. Comes off wins in New York in Grade 2 and Grade 1. Times not stellar, but the surface wasn't hard and fast on those occassions.
11. AUDARYA 20-1 comes off a first and third in French Grade 1 races. Serious threat here.
12. LADY PRANCEALOT 20-1 has been competitive in seven consecutive graded stakes races, winning a Grade 1 in December 2019 in California as a favorite, so his competition was questionable. Has to prove he can compete with this class. Maybe he can. These are all all stars.
13. NAY LADY NAY 12-1 appears to be the least likely of Chad Brown's to win, but when trainers have multiple entries, it always means he thinks they're evenly matched. Has won a Grade 3 and a Grade 2.
14. CAYENNE PEPPER 12-1 appears to be one of the better overseas invaders, winning a Grade 2 in Ireland
STYXPIX:
10. CIVIL UNION
9. Harvey's Lil Goil
2. Sistercharlie
6. Rushing Fail
Some handicappers like to handicap off of shorter races, because it's hard to find this distance in past performances, and longer distances don't let you know what they'll do when not rated so hard.
Comparing some from a mile and an eighth and some from a mile and some from other distances, trying to figure where they are at that particular track in the turn or backstretch, it's a lot of guess work actually.
1. STARSHIP JUBILEE 8-1 Comes off Grade 1 win in Canada against open company. Should help press the pace.
2. SISTERCHARLIE 6-1 one of Chad Brown's runners here. Was third in this same race last year.
3. PEACEFUL 20-1 British invader comes off dismal performance, but if you draw a line through that one, this is another top contender. O'Brien could get a price play here.
4. MEAN MARY 8-1 Figures to go to the lead. Won three of four graded stakes races. Must catch her.
5. MY SISTER NAT 8-1 Competitive in five straight graded stakes for Chad Brown. Another good one in super deep field.
6. RUSHING FAIL 4-1 Chad Brown's most well endorsed contender here comes off three straight graded stakes victories, the past two being Grade 1.
7. TEREBELLUM 20-1 British invader looks to stalk. Was 5th last time out at Newmarket.
8. MUCHO UNUSUAL 12-1 Grade 1 win out West, at low odds, usually runs against just one class level lower. Don't see it this time. Next time, when she goes to Grade 2 or 3.
9, HARVEY'S LIL GOIL 8-1 Mott second only to McCaughey as a trainer to most veteran horse players. This one won a grade 1 last time out at Keeneland.
10. CIVIL UNION 12-1 If it wasn't for Shug training this one, I probably wouldn't give it much of a look. But his patience with this lightly raced 5 year old bears notice, and he is still the best trainer in horse racing. Comes off wins in New York in Grade 2 and Grade 1. Times not stellar, but the surface wasn't hard and fast on those occassions.
11. AUDARYA 20-1 comes off a first and third in French Grade 1 races. Serious threat here.
12. LADY PRANCEALOT 20-1 has been competitive in seven consecutive graded stakes races, winning a Grade 1 in December 2019 in California as a favorite, so his competition was questionable. Has to prove he can compete with this class. Maybe he can. These are all all stars.
13. NAY LADY NAY 12-1 appears to be the least likely of Chad Brown's to win, but when trainers have multiple entries, it always means he thinks they're evenly matched. Has won a Grade 3 and a Grade 2.
14. CAYENNE PEPPER 12-1 appears to be one of the better overseas invaders, winning a Grade 2 in Ireland
STYXPIX:
10. CIVIL UNION
9. Harvey's Lil Goil
2. Sistercharlie
6. Rushing Fail