Bundesliga silly season - transfer business

40 million is their idea of big mouth-opening singning?!

Like I said: if they want to be on the level of Real and Barca, they have to sing player like Griezmann (one of the few in reach and willing to play there).
In earlier posting I stated my opinion that Germany and to some extent England will always have problems to sign the top-players from South Europe and South America: the climate, the mentality, the culture and the the standings of clubs like Real and Barca.

Ronaldo played in Manchester, but his dream was Real.

Hence, our pool of players is limited to the likes of our own nationals players and North, Middle and Eastern Europe - Africa maybe.
Furthermore the Bundesliga has a very poor overall prestige compare with the Spanish or English league - we went too late professional (we were the last ones of the big five to create a professional league for instance), we refuse big money (50+1 rule) and thus big stars to this very day, and we lack of former "empire" like Spain and England had.
Their former colonies still speak their language, have still close economical and cultural ties, and thus they have a huge advantage to promote their league into these oversea areas.
And it is like a pareto-competition, means: the winner nearly takes it all. The competitor who comes late into the business will never overcome the projection of the market leader (the big exception is technology that changes everything (=>  mobil phones vs. smart phones). But this will hardly be the case in football).

This all means we had to pay more, not less money to attract and sign these names.
And it is not the money alone:

- like in the case of Ronaldo it can be  amatter of personal preferences
- the culture, climate etc. pp.
- the international branding of the league (commercial deals, to be the spokesperson for a big company => Messi and Kobe Bryant commercial for Nike)
- the chances to win titel => what means more or less the Champions League. A players from Ghana or Peru gives a damn if he becomes the German champion or not
- will he be on the radar of the national team with this club => the other kind of big titel: the World Cup

So it is money, ambitions and life quality.

In all three one will do better in Spain or England.

So to compensate this disavantages, Bayern has a) to pay more and b) offer the player really good chances to  win at least the CL and thus what comes along with it.

But - Bayern has less money, and more so: they are not willing to spend what they could.

And since the last three years put a dent into their reputation, it is nearly impossible to sign top pplayers, and Uli and Rummenigge lack the guts to even try.

So they resorted to the old dream/idea to sign the German national team of tomorrow and to sign "Schnäppchens". The players who might be top-notch but lack the star power. In other words: the don't want to pay market prices, and the more and more they fall back, they also can't no longer pay them.

They had far better chnaces four or three years ago whan still in their prime and - on the pitch - on par with Barca and Real.
But the "Krämerseele" (=> transl. small-minded person) of Rummenigge won.


Bayern is now in a state of slow decline. It will, surely be sufficient for the Bundesliga, also for the next years, the signing of the young national players will pay off to some extent, but their will be no big names, and in the CL it will be the early ko stage from now on. A bit like Arsenal but in a much weaker league.


Dortmund will need time to get their acts together
Leipzig will have a hard year - the other will play no far more defensive and they have to deal with the demands of the CL
Köln, Hoffenheim, Hertha and Freiburg will rather fall back than improve.

Gladbach, Leverkusen and Schalke will recover to some extent, but won't pose a threat for Bayern.


I see no true competitor in the Bundesliga for the next three years for a) the incompenet management, b) the general lack of money and thus top players and c) the large gap.


Maybe Dortmund in  afew years, maybe Leipzig if they're willing to spend money.
But else: one step forward, two back, two forward, one back, one forward, two back...there is no long-term progress with team like Schalke, Leverkusen or Gladbach.

The only hope is Dortmund and Leipzig.

And without compititors in the own league, the momentum of the decline will even increase.
The golden era of Bayern was preceded by one of the most humiliating defeats in their history.
This forced them to re-new themselves, but with the current status of the league they will indulge themselves and shy away from big changes...like big spending on players like Griezmann.
I said it before - if there is no Griezmann (and he is a name that stands for a chnage of mind), Bayern will continue their slow path of decline.