Post by klawrencio79 on Jul 30, 2018 16:35:41 GMT
I am not in the pro-Lester camp, but this article is pretty interesting and makes some notable comparisons. In an age where traditional stats are not the end-all, be-all of determining when a player gets in, the analytics-based approach is one that will allow other guys to get in. Agree or disagree, I do think Verducci's article does make some good points, even if I'm not fully sold on it.
Anyway, enjoy!
Anyway, enjoy!
JON LESTER'S CAREER IS TAKING A TURN TOWARD COOPERSTOWN
By Tom Verducci
This might be the year Jon Lester starts to look like a probable Hall of Famer.
Wait. Jon Lester? The guy who never has won a Cy Young Award, received votes for the award only three times, never won 20 games, and finished in the top three in ERA only once? The same Jon Lester who is a solid, dependable starter but who lacks the big-time trophy bling of guys like Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer?
Admit it: when you watch Lester you don’t exactly think Hall of Famer. But you may have to re-think that perspective, especially after this year.
Lester is one of the best under-the-radar Hall of Fame candidates in the game today. Why? Because he is durable (headed for an 11th straight season with more than 30 starts); he is better in his 30s (3.09 ERA) than in his 20s (3.76), when we tend to form such opinions; and his statistical doppelganger, Roy Halladay, goes on the ballot this fall.
Lester is doing his part this year. At age 34, he is having another superlative season (12-3, 3.06). Though his velocity has dipped the past two years, his changeup is better than ever and the command of his curveball is Andy Pettitte-like—it gets better with age.
Few pitchers in the game today have a cleaner arm action than Lester. He is signed through 2020, so with his fabulous mechanics and with the Cubs figuring to stay competitive he has a good chance of getting to 200 wins. (He enters career start 370 on Tuesday with 171.)
An election or strong showing for Halladay would enhance Lester’s road to Cooperstown. Halladay is a worthy Hall of Famer, though I’m not sure he gets in on the first try with 203 wins because voters are still re-calibrating what makes a Hall of Fame starter. After four pitchers won their 300th game between 2003-09, we have to junk that measuring stick in an age when pitch counts, deep bullpens, “pre-hab” injury care and analytics have devalued length from starters.
Lester is no Halladay when it comes to being on the short list of “Best Pitcher in the Game” candidates during their prime. Halladay’s case is one for a strong peak. His value is entirely packaged in a 10-year window in which he finished in the top five in Cy Young voting seven times (winning it twice), made eight All-Star Games and led the league in complete games seven times. Lester has finished in the top five of Cy Young voting three times (no wins), made six All-Star teams and never led the league in a major statistical category.
Without the extreme highs and lows of Halladay’s career, Lester quietly is approaching numbers similar to what Halladay posted. Check out where they stand after 370 career games:
Through 370 Games:
W-L ERA Innings Pitched Strikeouts
Roy Halladay 184-90 3.26 2,473 1,877
Jon Lester 171-95 3.49 2,305 2,137
I’ve got an even better Lester doppelganger for you. Here’s how Lester compares to Hall of Famer Lefty Gomez—and these are Gomez’s final numbers (Gomez was not elected by the writers, but by the Veterans Committee):
W-L Win Percentage ERA Innings Pitched ERA+
Jon Lester 171-95 .643 3.49 2,305 123
Lefty Gomez 189-102 .649 3.34 2,503 125
Lester’s candidacy is built on these outlier strengths:
1. Durability.
2. A crazy high winning percentage (.643).
3. An impressive ERA+ that has been improving (123).
4. Historic postseason success. Dude won two World Series with the Red Sox and one with the Cubs. He has made more postseason starts in which he allowed one or no runs (11) than anybody other than Tom Glavine (14) and Pettitte (12).
Lester is one of only 10 pitchers to post a winning percentage of .640 or better over more than 350 starts. Of those, the only ones not in the Hall of Fame are Roger Clemens (because of steroids) and our doppelgangers, Halladay and Lester:
Pitchers With .640 Win Percentage, 350 Starts:
Games Started Win Percentage (W-L)
1. Whitey Ford* 438 .690 (236-106)
2. Pedro Martinez* 409 .687 (219-100)
3. Lefty Grove* 457 .680 (300-141)
4. Christy Mathewson* 552 .665 (373-188)
5. Roy Halladay 390 .659 (203-145)
6. Roger Clemens 707 .658 (354-184)
7. John Clarkson* 518 .648 (328-178)
8. Randy Johnson* 603 .646 (303-166)
9. Jon Lester 369 .643 (171-95)
10. Pete Alexander* 600 .642 (373-208)
*Hall of Famer
Jack Morris was inducted into the Hall of Fame Sunday on the strength of elite durability. He was the last of a breed. Morris took the ball through at least eight innings more than any American League pitcher since the DH was established in 1973. He did so more than any other pitcher—regardless of league—since his debut in 1977: 248 times. Clemens is a distant second at 227. Nobody else is within 80 such lengthy starts over the past 42 seasons, and at this rate nobody ever will. The active leader, Felix Hernandez, has just 96 such starts.
Baseball writers rejected Morris 15 times. He was selected by the Hall’s version of an oversight committee.
So where do the voting writers go from here when it comes to starting pitchers and the Hall of Fame?
First, let’s examine the current backlog. Let’s set the bar at 200 wins and see who has the best ERA+ among those not in the Hall:
Highest ERA+ Not in Hall of Fame (200+ Wins Since 1900)
1. Roger Clemens 143
2. Roy Halladay 131
T3. Curt Schilling 127
T3. Kevin Brown 127
T5. Eddie Cicotte 123
T5. Mike Mussina 123
But think about this quirk when you think about the odds against Schilling, Mussina and Lester. Think about the multitudes of starting pitchers who debuted in the past half century—since 1968. Now think about how many of them who did not win a Cy Young Award were elected to the Hall of Fame by the writers. You can stop at one: Bert Blyleven. That’s it. Clemens and Brown (no longer eligible on the writers’ ballot) have been linked to PEDs. Cicotte is on the permanently ineligible list. Halladay, Schilling and Mussina should all be in the Hall of Fame in the next two or three years. Lester, if he maintains his 123 ERA+, would join this Famers-in-waiting list with 29 more wins.
There is room in the Hall for more starting pitchers who didn’t win a Cy. The line starts with Mussina and Schilling—and maybe, if he can continue what he’s been doing in his 30s with the Cubs, Lester, too.
By Tom Verducci
This might be the year Jon Lester starts to look like a probable Hall of Famer.
Wait. Jon Lester? The guy who never has won a Cy Young Award, received votes for the award only three times, never won 20 games, and finished in the top three in ERA only once? The same Jon Lester who is a solid, dependable starter but who lacks the big-time trophy bling of guys like Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer?
Admit it: when you watch Lester you don’t exactly think Hall of Famer. But you may have to re-think that perspective, especially after this year.
Lester is one of the best under-the-radar Hall of Fame candidates in the game today. Why? Because he is durable (headed for an 11th straight season with more than 30 starts); he is better in his 30s (3.09 ERA) than in his 20s (3.76), when we tend to form such opinions; and his statistical doppelganger, Roy Halladay, goes on the ballot this fall.
Lester is doing his part this year. At age 34, he is having another superlative season (12-3, 3.06). Though his velocity has dipped the past two years, his changeup is better than ever and the command of his curveball is Andy Pettitte-like—it gets better with age.
Few pitchers in the game today have a cleaner arm action than Lester. He is signed through 2020, so with his fabulous mechanics and with the Cubs figuring to stay competitive he has a good chance of getting to 200 wins. (He enters career start 370 on Tuesday with 171.)
An election or strong showing for Halladay would enhance Lester’s road to Cooperstown. Halladay is a worthy Hall of Famer, though I’m not sure he gets in on the first try with 203 wins because voters are still re-calibrating what makes a Hall of Fame starter. After four pitchers won their 300th game between 2003-09, we have to junk that measuring stick in an age when pitch counts, deep bullpens, “pre-hab” injury care and analytics have devalued length from starters.
Lester is no Halladay when it comes to being on the short list of “Best Pitcher in the Game” candidates during their prime. Halladay’s case is one for a strong peak. His value is entirely packaged in a 10-year window in which he finished in the top five in Cy Young voting seven times (winning it twice), made eight All-Star Games and led the league in complete games seven times. Lester has finished in the top five of Cy Young voting three times (no wins), made six All-Star teams and never led the league in a major statistical category.
Without the extreme highs and lows of Halladay’s career, Lester quietly is approaching numbers similar to what Halladay posted. Check out where they stand after 370 career games:
Through 370 Games:
W-L ERA Innings Pitched Strikeouts
Roy Halladay 184-90 3.26 2,473 1,877
Jon Lester 171-95 3.49 2,305 2,137
I’ve got an even better Lester doppelganger for you. Here’s how Lester compares to Hall of Famer Lefty Gomez—and these are Gomez’s final numbers (Gomez was not elected by the writers, but by the Veterans Committee):
W-L Win Percentage ERA Innings Pitched ERA+
Jon Lester 171-95 .643 3.49 2,305 123
Lefty Gomez 189-102 .649 3.34 2,503 125
Lester’s candidacy is built on these outlier strengths:
1. Durability.
2. A crazy high winning percentage (.643).
3. An impressive ERA+ that has been improving (123).
4. Historic postseason success. Dude won two World Series with the Red Sox and one with the Cubs. He has made more postseason starts in which he allowed one or no runs (11) than anybody other than Tom Glavine (14) and Pettitte (12).
Lester is one of only 10 pitchers to post a winning percentage of .640 or better over more than 350 starts. Of those, the only ones not in the Hall of Fame are Roger Clemens (because of steroids) and our doppelgangers, Halladay and Lester:
Pitchers With .640 Win Percentage, 350 Starts:
Games Started Win Percentage (W-L)
1. Whitey Ford* 438 .690 (236-106)
2. Pedro Martinez* 409 .687 (219-100)
3. Lefty Grove* 457 .680 (300-141)
4. Christy Mathewson* 552 .665 (373-188)
5. Roy Halladay 390 .659 (203-145)
6. Roger Clemens 707 .658 (354-184)
7. John Clarkson* 518 .648 (328-178)
8. Randy Johnson* 603 .646 (303-166)
9. Jon Lester 369 .643 (171-95)
10. Pete Alexander* 600 .642 (373-208)
*Hall of Famer
Jack Morris was inducted into the Hall of Fame Sunday on the strength of elite durability. He was the last of a breed. Morris took the ball through at least eight innings more than any American League pitcher since the DH was established in 1973. He did so more than any other pitcher—regardless of league—since his debut in 1977: 248 times. Clemens is a distant second at 227. Nobody else is within 80 such lengthy starts over the past 42 seasons, and at this rate nobody ever will. The active leader, Felix Hernandez, has just 96 such starts.
Baseball writers rejected Morris 15 times. He was selected by the Hall’s version of an oversight committee.
So where do the voting writers go from here when it comes to starting pitchers and the Hall of Fame?
First, let’s examine the current backlog. Let’s set the bar at 200 wins and see who has the best ERA+ among those not in the Hall:
Highest ERA+ Not in Hall of Fame (200+ Wins Since 1900)
1. Roger Clemens 143
2. Roy Halladay 131
T3. Curt Schilling 127
T3. Kevin Brown 127
T5. Eddie Cicotte 123
T5. Mike Mussina 123
But think about this quirk when you think about the odds against Schilling, Mussina and Lester. Think about the multitudes of starting pitchers who debuted in the past half century—since 1968. Now think about how many of them who did not win a Cy Young Award were elected to the Hall of Fame by the writers. You can stop at one: Bert Blyleven. That’s it. Clemens and Brown (no longer eligible on the writers’ ballot) have been linked to PEDs. Cicotte is on the permanently ineligible list. Halladay, Schilling and Mussina should all be in the Hall of Fame in the next two or three years. Lester, if he maintains his 123 ERA+, would join this Famers-in-waiting list with 29 more wins.
There is room in the Hall for more starting pitchers who didn’t win a Cy. The line starts with Mussina and Schilling—and maybe, if he can continue what he’s been doing in his 30s with the Cubs, Lester, too.
