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Post by damngumby on Jan 8, 2019 12:55:01 GMT
how does anyone go 0-for-4 when 15 of 16 ways results in at least 1 correct pick? 21 participants, four coin tosses, the likelihood of one of those participants going 0 for 4 is almost 100%. |
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Post by DSDSquared on Jan 8, 2019 15:28:31 GMT
how does anyone go 0-for-4 when 15 of 16 ways results in at least 1 correct pick? 21 participants, four coin tosses, the likelihood of one of those participants going 0 for 4 is almost 100%. He shouldn't have bet against the Eagles. The sad thing is that I can never pick the Cowboys because of my hate for them so I went 3-1, even though I kind of thought that they would win at home. |
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Post by DC-Fan on Jan 8, 2019 17:27:48 GMT
how does anyone go 0-for-4 when 15 of 16 ways results in at least 1 correct pick? 21 participants, four coin tosses, the likelihood of one of those participants going 0 for 4 is almost 100%. More flawed analysis, just like your flawed DeflateGate excuses. The likelihood of a participant going 0-for-4 would be 100% only if no duplicate picks were allowed (i.e. if no 2 participants can make the same picks). In this case, each participant's picks is independent of other participant's picks and thus duplicate picks can occur and thus the likelihood of any participant going 0-for-4 is very slim, since there are 15 of 16 ways to get at least 1 correct pick. |
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Post by damngumby on Jan 9, 2019 0:24:26 GMT
21 participants, four coin tosses, the likelihood of one of those participants going 0 for 4 is almost 100%. More flawed analysis, just like your flawed DeflateGate excuses. The likelihood of a participant going 0-for-4 would be 100% only if no duplicate picks were allowed (i.e. if no 2 participants can make the same picks). In this case, each participant's picks is independent of other participant's picks and thus duplicate picks can occur and thus the likelihood of any participant going 0-for-4 is very slim, since there are 15 of 16 ways to get at least 1 correct pick. LOL! Looks like we can add probability to the list of topics you don’t understand, Always Wrong. Of course we are talking about independent picks, duh! Even common sense should tell you that the probability of someone going 0-4 increases with the number of people participating. One person, the probability is, as you said, .0625, or approx 6%. Two people, the probability of one of them going 0-4 increases to 12% Three people, 17% Ten people, 47% 21 people, 74% No wonder you were afraid to dive into the deflategate science yourself, instead you just chose to believe everything the NFL spoon fed you. What a putz. |
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Post by FrankSobotka1514 on Jan 9, 2019 1:10:26 GMT
Divisional Round
Saturday January 12th
4:35pm EST
Indianapolis 31 @ Kansas City 28
8:15pm
Dallas 24 @ LA Rams 13
Sunday January 13th
1:05pm
LA Chargers 17 @ New England 28
4:40pm
Philadelphia 37 @ New Orleans 31
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Post by DC-Fan on Jan 9, 2019 1:22:41 GMT
More flawed analysis, just like your flawed DeflateGate excuses. The likelihood of a participant going 0-for-4 would be 100% only if no duplicate picks were allowed (i.e. if no 2 participants can make the same picks). In this case, each participant's picks is independent of other participant's picks and thus duplicate picks can occur and thus the likelihood of any participant going 0-for-4 is very slim, since there are 15 of 16 ways to get at least 1 correct pick. LOL! Looks like we can add probability to the list of topics you don’t understand, Always Wrong. Of course we are talking about independent picks, duh! Even common sense should tell you that the probability of someone going 0-4 increases with the number of people participating. One person, the probability is, as you said, .0625, or approx 6%. Two people, the probability of one of them going 0-4 increases to 12% Three people, 17% Ten people, 47% 21 people, 74% No wonder you were afraid to dive into the deflategate science yourself, instead you just chose to believe everything the NFL spoon fed you. What a putz. You Pats fans really are idiots. When the picks are independent of each other, the probability doesn't increase or decrease with more numbers. If you flip a coin, the probability is 50% heads and 50% tails. If you flip a coin and it turns up heads 20 straight times and you flip the coin a 21st time, the probability is still 50% heads and 50% tails. Because each flip of the coin is independent of all of the other flips. Each participant makes their picks independent of everyone else's picks. So whether there are 21 participants or 121 participants, there are still 15 of 16 ways that a participant can get at least 1 correct pick. Once again, you're analysis is flawed, just like your DeflateGate excuses. |
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Post by damngumby on Jan 9, 2019 7:31:35 GMT
LOL! Looks like we can add probability to the list of topics you don’t understand, Always Wrong. Of course we are talking about independent picks, duh! Even common sense should tell you that the probability of someone going 0-4 increases with the number of people participating. One person, the probability is, as you said, .0625, or approx 6%. Two people, the probability of one of them going 0-4 increases to 12% Three people, 17% Ten people, 47% 21 people, 74% No wonder you were afraid to dive into the deflategate science yourself, instead you just chose to believe everything the NFL spoon fed you. What a putz. You Pats fans really are idiots. When the picks are independent of each other, the probability doesn't increase or decrease with more numbers. If you flip a coin, the probability is 50% heads and 50% tails. If you flip a coin and it turns up heads 20 straight times and you flip the coin a 21st time, the probability is still 50% heads and 50% tails. Because each flip of the coin is independent of all of the other flips. Each participant makes their picks independent of everyone else's picks. So whether there are 21 participants or 121 participants, there are still 15 of 16 ways that a participant can get at least 1 correct pick. Once again, you're analysis is flawed, just like your DeflateGate excuses. The probability of a coin toss coming up heads each time it is tossed is 50%. The probability of it coming up heads at least once in 21 tries is almost 100%. Just like the greatly increased probability of a whiff occurring at least once when 21 people make their picks instead of just one person. That is, after all, what this is all about. You were incredulous that a whiff could occur in a large group because there was only a 1/16 chance it could happen to any one person. Once again, you have misapplied some basic facts and come to the wrong conclusion. Common sense should have sounded an alarm that you were barking up the wrong tree. You might want to think about giving it a try sometime. Always Wrong. |
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Post by ctown28 on Jan 9, 2019 16:57:44 GMT
It’s not right that I finished second in the regular season picks yet am eliminated because I shit the bed in the first round of the playoffs, I don’t think posters should be eliminated. This is the playoffs. It's the same as the Pats finishing #2 in the AFC in the regular season and then shitting the bed in their first playoff game and losing to the Chargers. Lets try an analogy of something that actually happened at this point rather than something that could happen: The 2016 Dallas Cowboys finished first in the NFC with a 13-3 record and shit the bed against the Packers and lost their first playoff game |
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Post by Xeliou66 on Jan 9, 2019 23:11:32 GMT
Here are my picks, even though they don’t count
Colts over Chiefs - Colts are red hot and I think they will win in a high scoring game, because they have a better secondary and a slightly more complete team, and they are playing very well. Final score - Colts 48 Chiefs 45
Rams over Cowboys - Rams offense is far more powerful and will outscore the Cowboys. Final Score - Rams 41, Cowboys 24
Patriots over Chargers - Pats are great at home and I have more confidence in them than in the Chargers. Final Score - Pats 27, Chargers 23
Saints over Eagles - Saints have a great all around team and their offense will destroy the Eagles secondary. Final Score - Saints 52, Eagles 28.
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Post by sdm3 on Jan 11, 2019 5:01:36 GMT
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Post by Toy-Cannon on Jan 11, 2019 5:09:19 GMT
Kansas City 30 Indianapolis 17
LA Rams 26 Cowboys 21
Chargers 34 New England 28
New Orleans 21 Philadelphia 16
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Deleted Member
@Deleted
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jan 11, 2019 9:15:53 GMT
sdm3 changing my picks Saturday January 12th 4:35pm EST Indianapolis @ Kansas City [40 - 34]8:15pm Dallas @ LA Rams [27 - 20]Sunday January 13th 1:05pm LA Chargers @ New England [28 - 27]4:40pm Philadelphia @ New Orleans [34 - 20]
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Post by NJtoTX on Jan 11, 2019 12:46:23 GMT
how does anyone go 0-for-4 when 15 of 16 ways results in at least 1 correct pick? 21 participants, four coin tosses, the likelihood of one of those participants going 0 for 4 is almost 100%. Well, underdogs/visiting teams won. If you picked 3 home favorites and the wrong upset - Bingo! |
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Post by HumanFundRecipient on Jan 11, 2019 15:47:52 GMT
Going "All in" with these picks
Colts 34, Chiefs 28 (where QB experience matters)
Rams 24, Cowboys 20 (Bengals will have to wait, if the reports are true)
Chargers 20, Patriots 16 (no Freezer Bowl weather, no "Tuck Rule" magic)
Saints 35, Eagles 21 (next Super Bowl champs will be...)
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Post by NJtoTX on Jan 11, 2019 16:58:56 GMT
Kansas City 31
Indianapolis 27
LA Rams 28
Dallas 24
New England 27
LA Chargers 21
New Orleans 30
Philadelphia 20
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Post by NewtJorden on Jan 11, 2019 17:05:01 GMT
Kansas City 41
Indianapolis 20
LA Rams 31
Dallas 7
New England 17
LA Chargers 14
Philadelphia 21
New Orleans 20
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Post by tristramshandy on Jan 12, 2019 1:01:29 GMT
I really feel like I could go from 1st place to out of the competition. Don't like the weather aspects of these games.
Indianapolis @ Kansas City 20-17
Dallas @ LA Rams 21-18
LA Chargers @ New England 20-16
Philadelphia @ New Orleans 24-21
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Post by sdm3 on Jan 12, 2019 2:21:49 GMT
Changing my score of NO/PHI to 38-24.
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Post by coldenhaulfield on Jan 12, 2019 6:36:07 GMT
Divisional Round
Saturday January 12th
4:35pm EST
Chiefs d. Colts, 31-10.
8:15pm
Rams d. Cowboys, 35-24.
Sunday January 13th
1:05pm
Patriots d. Chargers, 38-35.
4:40pm
Saints d. Eagles, 28-21.
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Post by marsexplorer on Jan 12, 2019 20:12:14 GMT
sdm3Kansas City 34-31 LA Rams 27-21 LA Chargers 31-28 New Orleans 35-24
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