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Post by scabab on Jan 2, 2020 21:57:15 GMT
Passed $800 million now but it should slow down a lot from here on though it'll still be passing a billion.
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Post by CrepedCrusader on Jan 2, 2020 22:32:50 GMT
"But it bombed in China!!!!!!!!!"
Can't stop the Star Wars train, baby.
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Post by johnspartan on Jan 2, 2020 23:18:19 GMT
"But it bombed in China!!!!!!!!!" Can't stop the Star Wars train, baby. That's a high number for Jumanji, not SW. For SW that is a disappointing low number, but you're too dumb to understand box office.
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Post by hobowar on Jan 2, 2020 23:30:11 GMT
"But it bombed in China!!!!!!!!!" Can't stop the Star Wars train, baby. That's a high number for Jumanji, not SW. For SW that is a disappointing low number, but you're too dumb to understand box office. 800 millon is phenominal for ANY movie, you fuckin' retard!
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Post by scabab on Jan 2, 2020 23:35:51 GMT
That's a high number for Jumanji, not SW. For SW that is a disappointing low number, but you're too dumb to understand box office. No that's pretty good actually. Not to the standard of The Force Awakens but amongst other Star Wars movies it's pretty good. If this finishes around $500 million in the US then that just fits inbetween Episode 2 and 3 in adjusted money.
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Post by politicidal on Jan 3, 2020 2:49:22 GMT
That's a high number for Jumanji, not SW. For SW that is a disappointing low number, but you're too dumb to understand box office. 800 millon is phenominal for ANY movie, you fuckin' retard! Solo would appreciate it.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2020 8:44:31 GMT
Solo was great for what it was but yeah it definitely could have been turned into a trilogy. Then again, people would say Disney is milking Solo. A catch-22, cant satisfy everyone The thing is it really could be one movie if done smarter, make it a film that spans a decade of the characters life, we have seen that so many times which allows you to cram a lot more moments into a movie and feel natural, it all being done during a single mission and short time span makes it feel cheap and lazy.
Also the catch 22 argument doesn't work when Disney were clearly looking to milk this thing, it surely wasn't a must hit everything because we have no choice situation, they left the movie with a bunch of sequel/spin off potentials, but again the problem is they didn't make a movie people are clamouring for sequels about, the most talked about was a Lando spin off.
Also "great for what it was" dude please you gotta elaborate on that, as that can be taken in so many ways man, Howard The Duck is imo great for what it is, which is a terrible movie with cheese and horrendous acting up the wazoo but I love it anyway , same for most Oscar bait movies, they are great for what they are, tremendous if derivative stories with top tier acting in an amazing movie I never want to watch a second time.
What I meant by that, is that I thought it incorporated all those elements quite well and organically in the one film. i think the catch-22 notion does apply as can be seen by the last jedi. They tried something different and it was polarising
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Post by Tristan's Journal on Jan 3, 2020 9:39:41 GMT
If this movie really requires USD 1B to break even as analysts claim (which is plausible considering the heavy backlash marketing and high production costs & reshoots), USD 815 M in the first 2.5 holiday weeks is not impressive at all.
Commercial success/profitability and amortization must be assessed in relation to the investment costs, the gross number alone is worthless. Everybody here who claims otherwise is either disingenuous or obtuse (or both).
Furthermore, the current gross numbers in conjunction with the expected slow down would mean TROS will likely not even beat Last Jedi!
This would be an historical under-performance for a trilogy-ending Star Wars film considering the trilogy-gross pattern has always been that the first one was most successful, the second one less so, and the third film grossed better than the second one but less than the first.
Also, this is a special event as TROS supposedly ends the entire 42 year saga!
By rule of thumb:
- below USD 1B = flop - above USD 1B but below Last Jedi = profitable but under-performing - above TLJ but below USD 1.5B: decent commercial hit - above 1.5: impressive - above 2B: most impressive
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Post by Jan El Señor on Jan 3, 2020 14:46:23 GMT
This would be an historical under-performance for a trilogy-ending Star Wars film considering the trilogy-gross pattern has always been that the first one was most successful, the second one less so, and the third film grossed better than the second one but less than the first. Except that only happened with the prequels. The worldwide gross for ROTJ was less than the worldwide gross of ESB.
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Post by Spike Del Rey on Jan 3, 2020 15:08:24 GMT
That's a high number for Jumanji, not SW. For SW that is a disappointing low number, but you're too dumb to understand box office. No that's pretty good actually. Not to the standard of The Force Awakens but amongst other Star Wars movies it's pretty good. If this finishes around $500 million in the US then that just fits inbetween Episode 2 and 3 in adjusted money. You're right, this is doing fine. The Force Awakens $2 billion dollar gross is an outlier for the franchise. It enjoyed a perfect storm of variables; the revival of a beloved franchise after a ten-year wait, the continuation of the original saga, being released on Christmas break, and no direct competition for its audience when it was released. Only The Phantom Menace reached a WW gross of a billion, and certainly the prequels were released at a time when hitting that benchmark was possible. So in the Star Wars Universe, there's nothing wrong with the billion dollar plus gross this will achieve.
Star Wars Franchise Grosses
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Post by Tristan's Journal on Jan 3, 2020 15:23:52 GMT
This would be an historical under-performance for a trilogy-ending Star Wars film considering the trilogy-gross pattern has always been that the first one was most successful, the second one less so, and the third film grossed better than the second one but less than the first. Except that only happened with the prequels. The worldwide gross for ROTJ was less than the worldwide gross of ESB. this is true from a certain point of view. The analytics seem to refer to domestic and upon original release which has Jedi higher than Empire ($309,306,177 vs $290,271,960). (likely profitability too as they make more profit from domestic) But ww (over time) Empire actually out-grossed Jedi thanks to re-releases such as Special Edition 97 where Empire ($124,812,460) beat Jedi considerably ($89,388,357). Deservedly so.
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Post by Jan El Señor on Jan 3, 2020 15:32:47 GMT
You're right, this is doing fine. The Force Awakens $2 billion dollar gross is an outlier for the franchise. It enjoyed a perfect storm of variables; the revival of a beloved franchise after a ten-year wait, the continuation of the original saga, being released on Christmas break, and no direct competition for its audience when it was released. Only The Phantom Menace reached a WW gross of a billion, and certainly the prequels were released at a time when hitting that benchmark was possible. So in the Star Wars Universe, there's nothing wrong with the billion dollar plus gross this will achieve.
Star Wars Franchise Grosses
If Disney really spent as much on this as the rumors suggest, this isn't good for them. At the end of the day, it is their fault. I guarantee Lucas wouldn't have spent over $200 million making a Star Wars film. Sure, a billion dollar gross shows that the franchise still has marketability. But if they're spending so much they're not making any money off a billion dollar grossing movie, they boned themselves....
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Jan El Señor
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Post by Jan El Señor on Jan 3, 2020 16:20:20 GMT
Except that only happened with the prequels. The worldwide gross for ROTJ was less than the worldwide gross of ESB. this is true from a certain point of view. The analytics seem to refer to domestic and upon original release which has Jedi higher than Empire ($309,306,177 vs $290,271,960). (likely profitability too as they make more profit from domestic) But ww (over time) Empire actually out-grossed Jedi thanks to re-releases such as Special Edition 97 where Empire ($124,812,460) beat Jedi considerably ($89,388,357). Deservedly so. It's true for domestic, but Empire did outgross Jedi worldwide even if you don't count the re-releases.
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Post by scabab on Jan 3, 2020 21:26:08 GMT
Now at $840 million so it'll pass Revenge of the Sith tomorrow, well technically it has already.
"As expected, Disney’s Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker is continuing to dominate the box office with a third weekend take of $37.2M, -49% for a running total by Sunday of $454.3M. That third weekend take is lower than the low $40M range that was expected. Again, part of Skywalker falling behind Last Jedi has a lot to do with Christmas and New Year’s Day falling later in the latter’s run, which boosted grosses greatly. Friday for the J.J. Abrams-directed movie looks like $11.1M, -57%, still at 4,406 theaters."
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Post by CrepedCrusader on Jan 5, 2020 2:47:59 GMT
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Post by dazz on Jan 5, 2020 7:02:08 GMT
Dude I think you misunderstand what the expected performance range to be based on, it's an average range based on the last 10 years worth of movies overall, it isn't individual movie specific, timeframe specific, season specific, genre or franchise specific, it would be the same regardless if it opened up now, in the peak of summer or the end of January.
Take note of when they gain ground on the expected range, it's during the X-Mas and NY holidays where most people are not working so they are effectively extra weekends, on the normal days however that gap is closing, this is not a bad thing though as it still means TROS is performing at the high end of their expected range for a movie that opened that big, but it's not the misreading great performance you make it out to be, simply because you are either not smart enough to understand the actual meaning of the graph, or you are wilfully ignorant of it and just trying to be a twat.
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Post by scabab on Jan 5, 2020 18:29:44 GMT
Domestic weekend gross was $33.7 million so a fair bit off estimates.
Worldwide it's at $918 million. I think The Phantom Menace made like $924 million about 20 years ago.
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Post by CrepedCrusader on Jan 5, 2020 19:37:47 GMT
Dude I think you misunderstand what the expected performance range to be based on, it's an average range based on the last 10 years worth of movies overall, it isn't individual movie specific, timeframe specific, season specific, genre or franchise specific, it would be the same regardless if it opened up now, in the peak of summer or the end of January.
Take note of when they gain ground on the expected range, it's during the X-Mas and NY holidays where most people are not working so they are effectively extra weekends, on the normal days however that gap is closing, this is not a bad thing though as it still means TROS is performing at the high end of their expected range for a movie that opened that big, but it's not the misreading great performance you make it out to be, simply because you are either not smart enough to understand the actual meaning of the graph, or you are wilfully ignorant of it and just trying to be a twat.
It goes to prove my theory that TROS would have better legs than TLJ. In another post of mine discussing likey total box office, and whether the movie was in danger of failing to break even when production and marketing costs were take into consideration, I estimated that, if it had the same legs as TLJ it would make $1.03b worldwide, but (as I've already said) I thought it would actually make more, closer to $1.1b, a number which is a success no matter how many people want to paint it as a "disappointment". Doing some math, at this point in its run (i.e. 17 days) TLJ had made 83.4% of its total domestic box office. If we assume that TROS will follow the same pattern (and, as I've pointed out, I think it is showing better legs than TLJ and therefore might perform relatively better post-Day 17, but for argument's sake, let's just go with it), it will end up at ~$540.5m domestically. If the current domestic v. international balance holds, the combined global box office will in fact cross the $1.1b mark, or about $100m more than Rogue One, whose budget (with reshoots) was on par with widely reported budget figures for TROS, and which was hailed as a box office success.
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Post by dazz on Jan 6, 2020 8:22:51 GMT
Dude I think you misunderstand what the expected performance range to be based on, it's an average range based on the last 10 years worth of movies overall, it isn't individual movie specific, timeframe specific, season specific, genre or franchise specific, it would be the same regardless if it opened up now, in the peak of summer or the end of January.
Take note of when they gain ground on the expected range, it's during the X-Mas and NY holidays where most people are not working so they are effectively extra weekends, on the normal days however that gap is closing, this is not a bad thing though as it still means TROS is performing at the high end of their expected range for a movie that opened that big, but it's not the misreading great performance you make it out to be, simply because you are either not smart enough to understand the actual meaning of the graph, or you are wilfully ignorant of it and just trying to be a twat.
It goes to prove my theory that TROS would have better legs than TLJ. In another post of mine discussing likey total box office, and whether the movie was in danger of failing to break even when production and marketing costs were take into consideration, I estimated that, if it had the same legs as TLJ it would make $1.03b worldwide, but (as I've already said) I thought it would actually make more, closer to $1.1b, a number which is a success no matter how many people want to paint it as a "disappointment". Doing some math, at this point in its run (i.e. 17 days) TLJ had made 83.4% of its total domestic box office. If we assume that TROS will follow the same pattern (and, as I've pointed out, I think it is showing better legs than TLJ and therefore might perform relatively better post-Day 17, but for argument's sake, let's just go with it), it will end up at ~$540.5m domestically. If the current domestic v. international balance holds, the combined global box office will in fact cross the $1.1b mark, or about $100m more than Rogue One, whose budget (with reshoots) was on par with widely reported budget figures for TROS, and which was hailed as a box office success. No that's a lie the point you wanted to try and make is look how TROS is overachieving, which you used bullshit "evidence" to prove, TROS is doing great in terms of it's legs, but it is no overachieving, it got the holiday bump that graph doesn't factor in, otherwise it is doing high level expectations, but not peak expectations mind you otherwise the gap between it's projected and actual BO performance would not be shrinking.
And yes you did the "maths", badly mind you, given if the film makes $540m and keeps it's same domestic to international split it would only just cross $1.1b, Rogue 1 did over $1.05b, don't know if you know this or not but the difference between 50 and 100 is 50 not 100, but anyway back to the point you cited no source for where you got your figures from in terms of revenue split or even budget, you estimate 60% domestic take, where as Deadline which most sources taken their final tallies from cite it s 55% domestic take, same goes for the budgets, you just say widely reported this and that, which likely means you are citing different sources that support whatever narrative you are trying to create, all of mine is coming from the same source which is as I have said is the one most insiders seem to use at the end of the day also, as most sources cite the $200m budget for Rogue One not the $265m, and when reporting on films success they usually use Deadlines most profitable tournament breakdown numbers though usually not in full context.
You can talk out of both sides of your mouth all you want anyone can see the obvious bias and propaganda bullshit you try and pull you boot licking lapdog.
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Post by CrepedCrusader on Jan 6, 2020 16:00:28 GMT
It goes to prove my theory that TROS would have better legs than TLJ. In another post of mine discussing likey total box office, and whether the movie was in danger of failing to break even when production and marketing costs were take into consideration, I estimated that, if it had the same legs as TLJ it would make $1.03b worldwide, but (as I've already said) I thought it would actually make more, closer to $1.1b, a number which is a success no matter how many people want to paint it as a "disappointment". Doing some math, at this point in its run (i.e. 17 days) TLJ had made 83.4% of its total domestic box office. If we assume that TROS will follow the same pattern (and, as I've pointed out, I think it is showing better legs than TLJ and therefore might perform relatively better post-Day 17, but for argument's sake, let's just go with it), it will end up at ~$540.5m domestically. If the current domestic v. international balance holds, the combined global box office will in fact cross the $1.1b mark, or about $100m more than Rogue One, whose budget (with reshoots) was on par with widely reported budget figures for TROS, and which was hailed as a box office success. No that's a lie the point you wanted to try and make is look how TROS is overachieving, which you used bullshit "evidence" to prove, TROS is doing great in terms of it's legs, but it is no overachieving, it got the holiday bump that graph doesn't factor in, otherwise it is doing high level expectations, but not peak expectations mind you otherwise the gap between it's projected and actual BO performance would not be shrinking.
And yes you did the "maths", badly mind you, given if the film makes $540m and keeps it's same domestic to international split it would only just cross $1.1b, Rogue 1 did over $1.05b, don't know if you know this or not but the difference between 50 and 100 is 50 not 100, but anyway back to the point you cited no source for where you got your figures from in terms of revenue split or even budget, you estimate 60% domestic take, where as Deadline which most sources taken their final tallies from cite it s 55% domestic take, same goes for the budgets, you just say widely reported this and that, which likely means you are citing different sources that support whatever narrative you are trying to create, all of mine is coming from the same source which is as I have said is the one most insiders seem to use at the end of the day also, as most sources cite the $200m budget for Rogue One not the $265m, and when reporting on films success they usually use Deadlines most profitable tournament breakdown numbers though usually not in full context.
You can talk out of both sides of your mouth all you want anyone can see the obvious bias and propaganda bullshit you try and pull you boot licking lapdog.
*If I'm not it mistaken, I added source links in the other thread I referenced. Among those sources were reports that Disney took 60% of TFA's domestic box office, and 65% of TLJ's. So, the 60% number was actually me trying to be conservative. *I said "about $100m more than Rogue One" because my calculations came to a figure of $1.1b plus change, which I rounded down to $1.1 for simplicity's sake. I also couldn't recall the exact B.O. of Rogue One, and didn't feel like looking it up again, but I remembered it was ~$1b. *On the budget of RO, my bad. I just checked the franchise page on the-numbers.net (a great Box Office Mojo alternative, by the way), and RO was indeed $200m. I must have gotten it mixed up with Solo's budget, which is $275m. At the end of the day, TROS will be a billion dollar plus movie, four of the five DSW movies will be in the billion dollar club, and one will be in the two billion club. Not bad for a franchise that has been "run into the ground", as haters are find of saying.
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