"The dark force from critics isn’t keeping Disney’s Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker down with the Lucasfilm finale to the George Lucas-created saga seeing between $44M-$48M per Deadline sources tonight.
At that level, Rise of Skywalker will wind up being either the third or fourth best preview night ever with the current top three being last April’s Avengers: Endgame ($60M), 2015’s Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($57M) and 2017’s Star Wars: The Last Jedi ($45M)."
It'll be interesting to see how this one does. Episode III and VI had a big bump over their middle part but this one doesn't quite seem to be as interesting a conclusion.
Also Episode VIII being so controversial you'd think the sequel was bound to make less. Solo bombed which may or may not have largely been because of that movie.
I always expected this one to do worse than VIII. I think a lot do, Disney were expecting a OW of $160 million which is well off from VIII. I was thinking more than that but probably not $200 million.
Those preview figures might change but so far I'm surprised it's actually on the same level as VIII.
Tracking for a $450 million worldwide debut, or as the haters say, "Star Wars is dead!!!!"
Yes the finale, the last chapter the swan song in the Skywalker Saga a trilogy of trilogies 40 years in the making, of one of the most popular franchises in all of history...is tracking to do almost a thrid of what Endgame did, when 4 years ago SW crushed Avengers numbers like they were nothing, eclipsing their "poultry" $1.5b peak by over $500m, now they are expected to be doing barely over 1/3 of Avengers numbers for their big epic finale, lets celebrate the coup de gras of Star Wars.
Oh and you get that due to the high cost of this movie it's got an insanely high break even point right? if TFA and TLJ are anything to go by this is going to need to gross between $900 and $1b just to not lose Disney money, and depending on how well received it is by the fans it could either smash that number like it was nothing or struggle and scrape tooth and nail to reach it, it's a little too early to tell at this point.
Disney are saying $40 million for previews so a bit behind The Last Jedi. So if it were proportionally the same as that movie it'd open to $195 million or $175 million if it were like VII.
It also looks to have made $59 million overseas.
"So far, all openings are No. 1 outside the UAE and China. The UK leads play at $8.3M through Thursday, followed by Germany with $7.2M, France at $5.3M and Australia at $4.3M. China, which had previews on Wednesday and Thursday, made $3.6M across those, and (not included in the total above) is now at about $6M through Friday, landing at No. 4 for the day behind some local titles including Ip Man 4: The Finale which ultimately stuck to its date, as well as Sheep Without A Shepherd and Feng Xiaogang’s Only Cloud Knows."
So about $99 million worldwide thus far. It bombed in China again though.
Disney’s Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker is seeing an estimated $90M Friday per industry sources, which includes last night’s $40M. This currently puts the J.J. Abrams directed film between $190M-$195M for the weekend, which can’t be dinged especially at this time of year: It’s the third best opening ever for December. That number is ahead of tracking’s low $170M-$175M figure, and just under the $200M that the industry was expecting.
If "THE RISE OF SKYWALKER" makes more than Disney's Goal for the Movie's Opening Weekend (160 Million Dollars) then it is going to be 1 heck of a Torpedo Hit on The Fandom Menace.
I don't know if that will indeed happen (maybe it will and then again, maybe it won't) but it will definitely be interesting to see how it really does in it's Opening Weekend.
Well not really Disney is one of the few studios who play it smart and set their own estimates low in comparison to industry trackers, and they do the same with early BO estimates, they announce the lower numbers so they can then get the bump of usually exceeding their own expectations, it's strategy and it's smart as hell.
Besides as Scabab said it looks like they are heading into those higher expectations already, which is good but it is still down from both TLJ and TFA which is bad for the grand finale of the entire Saga series.
Ultimately though it comes down to legs and foreign markets, if TROS has good legs or if it becomes more popular internationally than domestically it could outpace TLJ, which is what it needs to do, if the final chapter in this trilogy is the lowest grossing of them that's a very bad look, I am personally hoping it doesn't come to that, partly due to wanting SW to end the saga films on a high note, and also because RJ's TLJ being the least successful of the ew trilogy will give me the warm fuzzies.
Well it doesn't look like it's going to, they're saying $193-194 million. With the same legs as TLJ it'd finish with $540-550 million.
It's hard to say if it'll have better or worse legs than TLJ. I don't know what the consensus is on this, if people find it better or worse than TLJ and also that it's come out closer to Christmas may have boosted it's weekend more so it may not be an apples to apples comparison.
Post by CrepedCrusader on Dec 21, 2019 20:08:15 GMT
Counting down the days until the official opening weekend numbers are in so the haters can pull out the old familiar "It didn't make as much as [insert movie name here]" and "...but it bombed in China" excuses to soothe the burn of Star Wars success in the face of their assurances that Star Wars is dead.
Counting down the days until the official opening weekend numbers are in so the haters can pull out the old familiar "It didn't make as much as [insert movie name here]" and "...but it bombed in China" excuses to soothe the burn of Star Wars success in the face of their insurance that Star Wars is dead.
But it bombed in China! And the UAE!!!!1
I’ll be seeing it again in IMAX on Sunday and prolly another couple times during the week depending on how holiday stuff shakes out.
“I have no enemies. But my friends don't like me.” Philip Larkin