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Post by CrepedCrusader on Dec 29, 2019 17:06:49 GMT
TLJ second weekend gross: $71.5 million
TROS second weekend gross: $72 million
Close, but still impressive for a movie that opened significantly lower and which everyone supposedly hates. TROS is also still tracking above its "expected performance range" (expected box office based on opening weekend). Overall worldwide box office is currently $724 million. The haters lose again.
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Post by darkpast on Dec 29, 2019 18:02:48 GMT
Uneducated fan boy who does not understand TLJ had Christmas Eve on weekend deflating the weekend . Everyone was predicting 80-90m second weekend, ouch.
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Post by Tristan's Journal on Dec 29, 2019 18:34:15 GMT
 not to rain on your little bravado dance, despite the current holiday boosters TROS will likely historically underperform. This is because of the following: As it looks TROS will end up with a ww gross haul below or on par of TLJ; however, until now the third SW film always performed significantly better than the second one - especially the advertised last one of a 42 year old saga and biggest franchise ever! And yet this is the most expensive ST film budget-wise (reshoot cost data still outstanding), plus likely sports the highest promo& advertisement cost counter balancing the fanbase backlash too. It will need approx 1B USD to break even. Not good for profitability. That paired with the mixed reviews leaves a bitterly mixed aftertaste of bantha poodo (which to be fair TROS is mostly composed of). Not that I would care about numbers or ratings much; I just find it amusing to observe that the haters and fandom menace may have more reason to celebrate than you have. Lets wait and see.
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Post by hobowar on Dec 29, 2019 19:26:36 GMT
It's funny watching morons on youtube try to put a negative spin on this.
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Post by CrepedCrusader on Dec 29, 2019 21:16:29 GMT
It will need approx 1B USD to break even. I've heard people say that, and I'm dubious. Many sources put Justice League's break-even point at ~$750 million (I've actually seen some sources put it as low as $600 million, but for the sake of playing devil's advocate I'll use the higher figure), and that movie had MASSIVE reshoots. Searching around, most sources put JL's production budget at ~$300 million, and TROS's budget between $250 million and $275 million. Also, Disney is infamous for negotiating very favorable profit splits with exhibitors (much to the chagrin of those exhibitors). So, a $1 billion break-even point doesn't make much sense. |
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Post by scabab on Dec 29, 2019 21:43:59 GMT
If expectations hold true this is still looking to sell more tickets in US than any of the prequels.
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Post by Tristan's Journal on Dec 29, 2019 22:18:44 GMT
It will need approx 1B USD to break even. I've heard people say that, and I'm dubious. Many sources put Justice League's break-even point at ~$750 million (I've actually seen some sources put it as low as $600 million, but for the sake of playing devil's advocate I'll use the higher figure), and that movie had MASSIVE reshoots. Searching around, most sources put JL's production budget at ~$300 million, and TROS's budget between $250 million and $275 million. Also, Disney is infamous for negotiating very favorable profit splits with exhibitors (much to the chagrin of those exhibitors). So, a $1 billion break-even point doesn't make much sense. I would not know, this is all speculation at this point. What I know (binding declaration): - below USD 1B: Flop!(will not happen) - above 1B but below TLJ ww cume: underperforming - above TLJ up to USD 1.5B: performing decently - north of 1.5B: impressive - north of 2B: most impressive!
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Post by dazz on Dec 30, 2019 0:45:35 GMT
It will need approx 1B USD to break even. I've heard people say that, and I'm dubious. Many sources put Justice League's break-even point at ~$750 million (I've actually seen some sources put it as low as $600 million, but for the sake of playing devil's advocate I'll use the higher figure), and that movie had MASSIVE reshoots. Searching around, most sources put JL's production budget at ~$300 million, and TROS's budget between $250 million and $275 million. Also, Disney is infamous for negotiating very favorable profit splits with exhibitors (much to the chagrin of those exhibitors). So, a $1 billion break-even point doesn't make much sense. One thing with reported estimates for a BE point is typically you will find they are low end estimates, based on a film making that amount in the US market where they collect the highest box office split, they will usually be just bellow double the production + marketing budgets, they can also factor in things like product placement which off set cost which SW due to it's nature cannot benefit from.
It's pretty simple you just take the budget in this case $275m supposedly, then you add onto that a likely marketing expense, using the last two Episode's as a baseline it's safe to give this a $185m marketing price tag as TFA had $184.5m and TLJ $185m respectively, so combine those numbers and we get $460m in cost, now if we apply best case scenario factors to that sort of budget the lowest BE point possible is about $840m, now if we apply the likely revenue split based off of what the previous SW films have had we actually get $1b, now that is supposing the supposed budget announce is true and that they didn't spend more on marketing than in previous years.
These numbers btw are based on the widely accepted financial breakdowns of the last few SW movies which most tout as legit so long as they make SW look profitable, though I bet yourself like many others don't actually bother to read and understand the breakdowns properly, I find them fascinating so I do, Disney doesn't take this huge larger profit split despite reports of them strong arming claim, they may force theatres to have to show SW on their largest screen non stop for 6 weeks but their % doesn't seem overly favourable.
Also all of this is just based on Budget + Marketing expenses, this does not include participation bonuses, interest or tax expenses, at it's rawest numbers TROS should need to break $1b before it makes even $1 in profit theatrically.
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Post by CrepedCrusader on Dec 30, 2019 2:51:06 GMT
I've heard people say that, and I'm dubious. Many sources put Justice League's break-even point at ~$750 million (I've actually seen some sources put it as low as $600 million, but for the sake of playing devil's advocate I'll use the higher figure), and that movie had MASSIVE reshoots. Searching around, most sources put JL's production budget at ~$300 million, and TROS's budget between $250 million and $275 million. Also, Disney is infamous for negotiating very favorable profit splits with exhibitors (much to the chagrin of those exhibitors). So, a $1 billion break-even point doesn't make much sense. One thing with reported estimates for a BE point is typically you will find they are low end estimates, based on a film making that amount in the US market where they collect the highest box office split, they will usually be just bellow double the production + marketing budgets, they can also factor in things like product placement which off set cost which SW due to it's nature cannot benefit from.
It's pretty simple you just take the budget in this case $275m supposedly, then you add onto that a likely marketing expense, using the last two Episode's as a baseline it's safe to give this a $185m marketing price tag as TFA had $184.5m and TLJ $185m respectively, so combine those numbers and we get $460m in cost, now if we apply best case scenario factors to that sort of budget the lowest BE point possible is about $840m, now if we apply the likely revenue split based off of what the previous SW films have had we actually get $1b, now that is supposing the supposed budget announce is true and that they didn't spend more on marketing than in previous years.
These numbers btw are based on the widely accepted financial breakdowns of the last few SW movies which most tout as legit so long as they make SW look profitable, though I bet yourself like many others don't actually bother to read and understand the breakdowns properly, I find them fascinating so I do, Disney doesn't take this huge larger profit split despite reports of them strong arming claim, they may force theatres to have to show SW on their largest screen non stop for 6 weeks but their % doesn't seem overly favourable.
Also all of this is just based on Budget + Marketing expenses, this does not include participation bonuses, interest or tax expenses, at it's rawest numbers TROS should need to break $1b before it makes even $1 in profit theatrically.
All right. I've done some math. (Thanks for providing the [likely] marketing costs, saving me some time.) First, some things I've found: *Disney took 60% of the domestic BO for TFA, and 65% of the domestic BO for TLJ. For the sake of playing conservative, let's say that their take of the domestic BO for TROS is 60%, akin to TFA. *I couldn't find Disney's cut for the international box office of the previous two films in the ST. Articles I've found mention that studios typically take ~40% of the international BO. They also say studios typically take ~53% of the domestic BO, leading one to wonder if Disney takes a larger-than-normal share of the international haul as well, but again, to be conservative, let's use the 40% figure. *Right now TROS's box office is breaking down thusly: 48.5% domestic/51.5% international. Using these numbers, I calculate that the BE point is ~$930m. $275m production budget + $185m marketing costs = $460m total budget ((930m x .485) x.6) + ((930m x .515) x .4) = $462.21m So already, at $930m, they will be in the black. TLJ, a film that had a similar negative fan backlash as TROS, had a 2.82 multiplier (domestic box office/biggest weekend). I have reason to believe that TROS will have a larger multiplier, for while TLJ's box office performance fell right in the middle of its "expected performance range" (projected total box office based on opening weekend), TROS is currently trending above its EPR, showing that it has stronger legs. Further evidence of this theory is the Week 2 drop-off of both films: 67% for TLJ compared to 59% for TROS. To once again be conservative, let's assume a 2.82 multiplier, which would equal a total domestic BO of $499.98m. If the current domestic/international breakdown holds, total worldwide BO would come in at ~$1.03b, or $100m above the BE point. But wait, there's more... TLJ, with all of its "divisiveness", still pulled in $88m in estimated Blu-ray and DVD sales. Then we have to factor in digital sales, which I couldn't find hard numbers for re: the previous ST films, but which have generally outpaced physical sales of films in recent years. We can assume that, if TLJ made $88m in physical sales, it made at least that much in digital sales, for a combined $176m. Assuming a drop-off in sales akin to the drop-off in BO, TROS would come in at ~$136m. (I have no idea, and am too tired to research, what percentage of this would be profit after taking away production and distribution costs.) Then we have to figure in Video On Demand rentals, streaming revenue, etc. Even then, that's just revenue directly related to the film. If we add in TROS-related merchandise, then that's even more dough. (I would argue that having a film playing in theaters could reasonably be expected to boost sales in other SW-related content, such as video games, but I admit that I have no hard data to prove this theory.) So, even using conservative numbers (e.g. a 60/40 revenue split for domestic BO and 40/60 split for international BO, a multiplier akin to TLJ even though TROS is showing better legs, etc.), it's clear that the film will undoubtedly make a nine-figure profit. p.s. This is what I did instead of getting reading done on a book I just started. It's been fun, though. SOURCES: Disney 60% cut of TFA Dom. BO www.businessinsider.com/the-force-awakens-revenue-for-disney-and-theaters-2015-12Disney 65% cut of TLJ Dom. BO mashable.com/2017/11/01/star-wars-last-jedi-theaters-disney/TLJ & TROS weekend performance + EPR graphs + estimated domestic DVD/Blu-ray sales www.the-numbers.com/movie/Star-Wars-Ep-VIII-The-Last-Jedi#tab=box-officewww.the-numbers.com/movie/Star-Wars-The-Rise-of-Skywalker-(2019)#tab=box-office
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Post by dazz on Dec 30, 2019 6:38:15 GMT
One thing with reported estimates for a BE point is typically you will find they are low end estimates, based on a film making that amount in the US market where they collect the highest box office split, they will usually be just bellow double the production + marketing budgets, they can also factor in things like product placement which off set cost which SW due to it's nature cannot benefit from.
It's pretty simple you just take the budget in this case $275m supposedly, then you add onto that a likely marketing expense, using the last two Episode's as a baseline it's safe to give this a $185m marketing price tag as TFA had $184.5m and TLJ $185m respectively, so combine those numbers and we get $460m in cost, now if we apply best case scenario factors to that sort of budget the lowest BE point possible is about $840m, now if we apply the likely revenue split based off of what the previous SW films have had we actually get $1b, now that is supposing the supposed budget announce is true and that they didn't spend more on marketing than in previous years.
These numbers btw are based on the widely accepted financial breakdowns of the last few SW movies which most tout as legit so long as they make SW look profitable, though I bet yourself like many others don't actually bother to read and understand the breakdowns properly, I find them fascinating so I do, Disney doesn't take this huge larger profit split despite reports of them strong arming claim, they may force theatres to have to show SW on their largest screen non stop for 6 weeks but their % doesn't seem overly favourable.
Also all of this is just based on Budget + Marketing expenses, this does not include participation bonuses, interest or tax expenses, at it's rawest numbers TROS should need to break $1b before it makes even $1 in profit theatrically.
All right. I've done some math. (Thanks for providing the [likely] marketing costs, saving me some time.) First, some things I've found: *Disney took 60% of the domestic BO for TFA, and 65% of the domestic BO for TLJ. For the sake of playing conservative, let's say that their take of the domestic BO for TROS is 60%, akin to TFA. *I couldn't find Disney's cut for the international box office of the previous two films in the ST. Articles I've found mention that studios typically take ~40% of the international BO. They also say studios typically take ~53% of the domestic BO, leading one to wonder if Disney takes a larger-than-normal share of the international haul as well, but again, to be conservative, let's use the 40% figure. *Right now TROS's box office is breaking down thusly: 48.5% domestic/51.5% international. Using these numbers, I calculate that the BE point is ~$930m. $275m production budget + $185m marketing costs = $460m total budget ((930m x .485) x.6) + ((930m x .515) x .4) = $462.21m So already, at $930m, they will be in the black. TLJ, a film that had a similar negative fan backlash as TROS, had a 2.82 multiplier (domestic box office/biggest weekend). I have reason to believe that TROS will have a larger multiplier, for while TLJ's box office performance fell right in the middle of its "expected performance range" (projected total box office based on opening weekend), TROS is currently trending above its EPR, showing that it has stronger legs. Further evidence of this theory is the Week 2 drop-off of both films: 67% for TLJ compared to 59% for TROS. To once again be conservative, let's assume a 2.82 multiplier, which would equal a total domestic BO of $499.98m. If the current domestic/international breakdown holds, total worldwide BO would come in at ~$1.03b, or $100m above the BE point. But wait, there's more... TLJ, with all of its "divisiveness", still pulled in $88m in estimated Blu-ray and DVD sales. Then we have to factor in digital sales, which I couldn't find hard numbers for re: the previous ST films, but which have generally outpaced physical sales of films in recent years. We can assume that, if TLJ made $88m in physical sales, it made at least that much in digital sales, for a combined $176m. Assuming a drop-off in sales akin to the drop-off in BO, TROS would come in at ~$136m. (I have no idea, and am too tired to research, what percentage of this would be profit after taking away production and distribution costs.) Then we have to figure in Video On Demand rentals, streaming revenue, etc. Even then, that's just revenue directly related to the film. If we add in TROS-related merchandise, then that's even more dough. (I would argue that having a film playing in theaters could reasonably be expected to boost sales in other SW-related content, such as video games, but I admit that I have no hard data to prove this theory.) So, even using conservative numbers (e.g. a 60/40 revenue split for domestic BO and 40/60 split for international BO, a multiplier akin to TLJ even though TROS is showing better legs, etc.), it's clear that the film will undoubtedly make a nine-figure profit. p.s. This is what I did instead of getting reading done on a book I just started. It's been fun, though. Dunno where you got your figures from mate but I got mine from Deadline who is who most of the other places take the figures from including Wikipedia, they have TFA at 55% domestic and 40% international, TLJ isn't as easily work out able as they just lumped overall revenue globally together but kept BO totals separate, but TLJ according to them took back 46% of it's global box office, which fits with TFA also, in terms of home media and TV/Streaming rights TLJ took in $222m home media and I think $165m TV/Streaming, all of which will likely take a considerable hit this time around due to Disney+, but with the TV & Media sales TLJ made around $385m and had around $130-40m cost associated with such, on top of $70m in off the top and participation cost.
So 70m added cost to this movie if it breaks $1b possibly over $100m if Ford is asking for his same money he did in TFA, oh and TFA to TLJ saw TLJ lose almost 50% of it's media & global rights sales, TFA did over $700m with that compared to the $385m or so of TLJ according to Deadline, which again could also see a huge dip this time around due to Disney+.
TROS isn't as divisive as TLJ btw most fans seem to enjoy it, it's the critics that were wishy washy over it, so that may be a good thing for TROS.
Also yes I know all about the other methods for Disney to make money from the movie, anyone with half a brain does, problem is Disney can do that without the movies, the movie needs to make money or cause a surge in sales for Disney to keep making them, if the movies fail to be profitable on their own, and they fail to boost merchandise sales, which if you have paid attention since TLJ Disney Star Wars merch sales have taken a considerable hit, dropping over $1b in sales in just 2 years, they wont spend $200m+ on 150 minute movies when they can spend half of that and get 4-5 hours of TV where they can create and promote new merch that way for longer for more exposure and half the cost.
It isn't about if it will make money, theatrically it could or could not depends if the movies legs hold out and so long as the estimated cost of the film do not rise, as of right now it's $460m outright and $70-100m in potential bonus's for $530-560m IF the movie crosses $1b which looks to be a certainty right now, but then crossing $1b incurs extra cost and to cover for that extra $70-100m the film needs to gross an additional $150-220m to break even theatrically I underlined and made that bold because many people seem to not grasp that concept, many films become profitable even after being box office bombs, films like Showgirls was a massive flop in theatres but made $100m+ in VHS sales making it a profitable movie.
Some films such as Batman get away with certain bombs in the theatres due to additional revenue, BVS was a theatrical flop but Batman saw over a 50% increase in merch sales after the movie was announced and has been over or near to the $1b a year in merch sales every year since, so they don't care if they lose $40m on a movie when they are making $500m in additional merch sales, if TLJ and Solo are anything to go by though that may not be the case with TROS, but that's a wait and see game, as is all the additional revenue with TROS, which is in the bad state of being in the experimental period for Disney, it wont have as much of those big 9 figure paydays to bolster it's bottom line due to Disney's new streaming service, it may make Disney more money overall but less will be credited to TROS than would be if it came out before hand.
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not to rain on your little bravado dance, despite the current holiday boosters TROS will likely historically underperform. This is because of the following: 
