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Post by darkpast on Jan 9, 2020 4:31:54 GMT
Parasite, 1917 or Once Upon A Time in Hollywood?
Netflix bias will probably keep them Irishman and Marriage Story out
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Post by rudeboy on Jan 9, 2020 4:56:15 GMT
Since the preferential voting system was introduced the winner of Best Picture has always been a nail-biter to the end. Whoever wins is usually the 'consensus' pick, not necessarily first on a majority of ballots but something that most voters at least like. Right now I'd lean towards Once Upon a Time in Hollywood but Parasite is snapping at its heels.
I could see 1917 winning directing but am not sure about its Best Picture chances.
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Post by politicidal on Jan 9, 2020 15:02:30 GMT
Of that lot, it could be any of them. Wildcards no one considered could be friggin Jojo Rabbit or maybe Little Women?
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bd74
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Post by bd74 on Jan 9, 2020 19:15:00 GMT
If I had to guess as of now, I would say...Once Upon A Time in Hollywood.
The Irishman is 3.5 hours long, which will put off a lot of voters.
I can't see Parasite winning because of the foreign language. If last year Roma couldn't win despite all of its nominations and widespread support from various branches of the Academy, then I don't see it happening with Parasite either especially if it doesn't win any of the upcoming awards. At least Roma won the BAFTA and DGA.
1917 gained momentum with the Globes wins (best drama film & best director) and the multiple BAFTA nominations, but it's unlikely to get any acting nominations at the Oscars (the Academy's acting branch is the largest branch).
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Post by kevin on Jan 11, 2020 15:00:23 GMT
I'd say it's between Once Upon a Time In Hollywood and Parasite with 1917 (and possibly The Irishman) as the most likely upsets. My gut says that OUATIH is gaining more momentum lately, but for now I'm still going with Parasite. Partly wishful thinking and also because of the ridiculous amount of awards it has already won. It definitely feels stronger than Roma was last year, but the competition is also stronger this time. I think the other award shows this month will show if Parasite still has a good chance of winning or if it was only awarded by the critic groups and not by the industry awards.
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Post by onethreetwo on Jan 11, 2020 15:14:50 GMT
1917
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Post by hi224 on Jan 11, 2020 21:52:57 GMT
in an order right now:
Once Upon A time in Hollywood 1917 Joker The Irishman Parasite Marriage Story Little Women The Two Popes Ford vs. Ferrari A beautiful day in the Neighborhood
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Post by moviebuffbrad on Jan 16, 2020 0:07:13 GMT
I'm inclined to say 1917 because of the GG win, but AMPAS has had a real hard-on for movies about Hollywood the last decade (The Artist, Argo, Birdman) so why not end on OUaTiH? Plus QT has never won Best Director or his films Best Picture, and he's supposedly retiring soon.
As others have said, if Roma couldb't break the glass ceiling of Netflix movies or foreign films taking the top spot, I dont think Irishman or Parasite will.
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Post by hi224 on Jan 16, 2020 3:53:58 GMT
I'm inclined to say 1917 because of the GG win, but AMPAS has had a real hard-on for movies about Hollywood the last decade (The Artist, Argo, Birdman) so why not end on OUaTiH? Plus QT has never won Best Director or his films Best Picture, and he's supposedly retiring soon. As others have said, if Roma couldb't break the glass ceiling of Netflix movies or foreign films taking the top spot, I dont think Irishman or Parasite will. I believe Irishman also has the silly complaints on twitter about the running time as well as the whole infamous beatdown scene which will handicap the movie a little. Parasite feels like it needed to over perform a little, it needed a few acting noms for Ho and Jeoyng. I still infer it has that foreign film bias against sadly. I really did believe it was Once Upon a Time but the movie missed an editing nomination.
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Post by kevin on Jan 16, 2020 7:57:14 GMT
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Parasite 1917 The Irishman Joker Jojo Rabbit Marriage Story Little Women Ford v Ferrari
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Post by politicidal on Jan 16, 2020 15:45:22 GMT
1917.
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Post by hi224 on Jan 16, 2020 19:41:21 GMT
Of that lot, it could be any of them. Wildcards no one considered could be friggin Jojo Rabbit or maybe Little Women? watch joker win.
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Post by hi224 on Jan 16, 2020 19:42:12 GMT
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Parasite 1917 The Irishman Joker Jojo Rabbit Marriage Story Little Women Ford v Ferrari you think Parasite is second place?.
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Post by kevin on Jan 16, 2020 20:13:48 GMT
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Parasite 1917 The Irishman Joker Jojo Rabbit Marriage Story Little Women Ford v Ferrari you think Parasite is second place?. Yep. It was the definitive frontrunner throughout December and early January, but lost a bit of steam after underperforming at the industry awards (Globes and especially Critics Choice the last few weeks) so it dropped from #1 for me. Still, it's ridiculous how many awards Parasite has won, more than 3 times as many Best Picture wins than any other movie this awards season. However, Once Upon a Time In Hollywood is getting everything it needs to get lately, same goes for 1917, while that isn't the case for Parasite. I can see someone making a case that 1917 is also above Parasite in terms of Oscar chances due to its momentum, but I definitely think Parasite is #3 at the lowest, I really can't see how it's below The Irishman or Joker imo at this point. I think the top 3 are the only ones who can realistically win. They also have the highest percentages on GoldDerby at the moment (OUATIH: 51%, 1917: 24%, Parasite: 18%, Something else: 8%). Personally I'm keeping Parasite at #2 for now as I don't want to confuse short-time momentum with the more large scale awards trend. So I'll keep it as it is until the SAG and PGA. I'm not so much in favor of changing my rankings all the time based on the most recent developments, I'd rather wait a while to see how things develop so I'm more confident in my decision before I change my ranking. Honestly, I think it will be quite difficult for something to beat OUATIH at the moment, especially in this shortened season. The only thing the opponents can hope for is that it loses steam just before the Oscars. The Oscars are all about timing (say that to Dunkirk), so it's always interesting to see how award contenders change over the weeks. I think in order for Parasite to have a big shot again it needs to surprise with a win at the SAG Awards, the Baftas or the PGA (which would be the best thing that could happen for it). If it wins any of those, it's really back into the race. I think that whatever movie wins big at those 2 or 3 awards will be the frontrunner going into the final section of awards season. But for now I think Parasite is kinda at the same level as 1917 with Once Upon a Time In Hollywood at #1. The lack of an acting nom really hurt Parasite. On the other hand both OUATIH and 1917 missed out on Editing nom which is also a very big deal. Luckily even with everything we know, the awards aren't always be predicted accurately. So it always remains exciting. Moonlight won with just 11%! of the voters on GoldDerby predicting it, a record low. So big surprises do happen. I think there will be a lot more clarity after the SAG Awards and PGA, both in a few days.
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Post by bd74 on Jan 16, 2020 20:31:48 GMT
you think Parasite is second place?. Yep. It was the definitive frontrunner throughout December and early January, but lost a bit of steam after underperforming at the industry awards (Globes and especially Critics Choice the last few weeks) so it dropped from #1 for me. Still, it's ridiculous how many awards Parasite has won, more than 3 times as many Best Picture wins than any other movie this awards season. However, Once Upon a Time In Hollywood is getting everything it needs to get lately, same goes for 1917, while that isn't the case for Parasite. I can see someone making a case that 1917 is also above Parasite in terms of Oscar chances due to its momentum, but I definitely think Parasite is #3 at the lowest, I really can't see how it's below The Irishman or Joker imo at this point. Critics' awards do not determine the Best Picture frontrunner. The PGA will be the most likely indicator of the Best Picture winner particularly because it's a preferential ballot like the Oscar ballot, and all nine Oscar nominees are also PGA nominees. I can't picture Parasite triumphing on a preferential ballot (the most #1 or #2 votes? I doubt it). I think Parasite's best chance from the upcoming awards is a win at the DGA. Theoretically, Parasite's director COULD win the Best Director Oscar, as that category is still kind of up for grabs. But Best Picture? I don't see it happening, especially since we already know it's going to win Best International Film. I would rank Joker above Parasite particularly because Joker is the film with the most nominations, which shows broad support from various branches.
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Post by kevin on Jan 16, 2020 20:42:44 GMT
Yep. It was the definitive frontrunner throughout December and early January, but lost a bit of steam after underperforming at the industry awards (Globes and especially Critics Choice the last few weeks) so it dropped from #1 for me. Still, it's ridiculous how many awards Parasite has won, more than 3 times as many Best Picture wins than any other movie this awards season. However, Once Upon a Time In Hollywood is getting everything it needs to get lately, same goes for 1917, while that isn't the case for Parasite. I can see someone making a case that 1917 is also above Parasite in terms of Oscar chances due to its momentum, but I definitely think Parasite is #3 at the lowest, I really can't see how it's below The Irishman or Joker imo at this point. Critics' awards do not determine the Best Picture frontrunner. The PGA will be the most likely indicator of the Best Picture winner particularly because it's a preferential ballot like the Oscar ballot, and all nine Oscar nominees are also PGA nominees. I can't picture Parasite triumphing on a preferential ballot (the most #1 or #2 votes? I doubt it). I think Parasite's best chance from the upcoming awards is a win at the DGA. Theoretically, Parasite's director COULD win the Best Director Oscar, as that category is still kind of up for grabs. But Best Picture? I don't see it happening, especially since we already know it's going to win Best International Film. I would rank Joker above Parasite particularly because Joker is the film with the most nominations, which shows broad support from various branches. Agreed, but they are somewhat of an indication especially some specific critic groups. The Globes also aren't really that good at predicting the Oscars. The big 3 in terms of indicators are the Critics Choice, PGA (like you mentioned as well) & Baftas (they're the 3 only awards with 70%+ accuracy at the Oscars together with the Phoenix Film Critics Circle). The Phoenix FCC went with Joker btw so that is indeed a strong argument in favor of Joker. Critics Choice went to OUATIH, which is also why I have it as my #1 at this point. I'm waiting for the PGA to see if there are any big shifts possible. I also put the SAG Awards in this year, because if Parasite wins there it could show that the acting miss at the Oscars wasn't that bad as it's considered to be more of an ensemble performance, so that could help it regarding BP. Tbh I don't think Parasite will have a disadvantage due to the preferential ballot, I can't see many people ranking it low on their list. But I agree with you that it isn't at #1 atm. And I also agree with Best Director, it seems like Mendes and Bong Joon-ho are neck and neck in that competition. The DGA winner will probably also be the Oscar winner.
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Post by hi224 on Jan 16, 2020 22:57:09 GMT
Critics' awards do not determine the Best Picture frontrunner. The PGA will be the most likely indicator of the Best Picture winner particularly because it's a preferential ballot like the Oscar ballot, and all nine Oscar nominees are also PGA nominees. I can't picture Parasite triumphing on a preferential ballot (the most #1 or #2 votes? I doubt it). I think Parasite's best chance from the upcoming awards is a win at the DGA. Theoretically, Parasite's director COULD win the Best Director Oscar, as that category is still kind of up for grabs. But Best Picture? I don't see it happening, especially since we already know it's going to win Best International Film. I would rank Joker above Parasite particularly because Joker is the film with the most nominations, which shows broad support from various branches. Agreed, but they are somewhat of an indication especially some specific critic groups. The Globes also aren't really that good at predicting the Oscars. The big 3 in terms of indicators are the Critics Choice, PGA (like you mentioned as well) & Baftas (they're the 3 only awards with 70%+ accuracy at the Oscars together with the Phoenix Film Critics Circle). The Phoenix FCC went with Joker btw so that is indeed a strong argument in favor of Joker. Critics Choice went to OUATIH, which is also why I have it as my #1 at this point. I'm waiting for the PGA to see if there are any big shifts possible. I also put the SAG Awards in this year, because if Parasite wins there it could show that the acting miss at the Oscars wasn't that bad as it's considered to be more of an ensemble performance, so that could help it regarding BP. Tbh I don't think Parasite will have a disadvantage due to the preferential ballot, I can't see many people ranking it low on their list. But I agree with you that it isn't at #1 atm. And I also agree with Best Director, it seems like Mendes and Bong Joon-ho are neck and neck in that competition. The DGA winner will probably also be the Oscar winner. reiterating what i said prior, Joker feels like a come from behind surprise winner ala Shakespeare in Love, especially if Once Upon a Time and 1917 split among academy voters. I see Parasite as a frontrunner as stated above only if it wins PGA and DGA.
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Post by mslo79 on Jan 18, 2020 11:25:05 GMT
1917 would be my best guess even though Ford v Ferrari is my #1 movie of the year straight up as I don't expect that to change. but the directors top movie in my mind is Road to Perdition (2002) (10/10) which is a masterpiece (a word I rarely use) as 1917 is not even close to that overall.
my personal stand out movies of 2019 straight up... 1)Ford v Ferrari 2)El Camino: A Breaking Bad Movie 3)The Irishman. nothing else stands out enough to be among my favorite movies in general besides those three so far. I would like Ford v Ferrari to win, as it's easily the #1 movie of the 'Best Picture' nominees as prior to seeing it I kind of assumed it was not going to top my #1 movie of that genre which is Rush (2013) (7/10) even though I assumed I would like it, but I just did not expect to give it more than a 6-6.5/10-ish, and ended up with a 7.5-8/10 (it's not often I am surprised like that). hell, prior to seeing Once Upon a Time in Hollywood/The Irishman, I was leaning towards I would probably like Once Upon a Time in Hollywood more but that did not happen as that was not as interesting as I thought it would be, even though I still like it, and The Irishman ended up being better.
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Post by kevin on Jan 18, 2020 12:09:29 GMT
Wow, Parasite just won the big prize at the Eddie Awards (editing). That's huge, it's the first foreign language movie to win it and it's now probably also the frontrunner for Best Editing. If it wins the PGA today it'll be the frontrunner again for Best Picture, but even if it doesn't it can remain a big contender if it wins something else like the SAG or Bafta.
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Post by bd74 on Jan 18, 2020 18:13:57 GMT
Wow, Parasite just won the big prize at the Eddie Awards (editing). That's huge, it's the first foreign language movie to win it and it's now probably also the frontrunner for Best Editing. If it wins the PGA today it'll be the frontrunner again for Best Picture, but even if it doesn't it can remain a big contender if it wins something else like the SAG or Bafta. A best picture winner with no acting nominations? You'd have to go back to Slumdog Millionaire which BTW won 8 Oscars and won everything else in the run-up to the Oscars: PGA, DGA, SAG, GG, BAFTA, CC.
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