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Post by kevin on Jan 18, 2020 18:24:06 GMT
Wow, Parasite just won the big prize at the Eddie Awards (editing). That's huge, it's the first foreign language movie to win it and it's now probably also the frontrunner for Best Editing. If it wins the PGA today it'll be the frontrunner again for Best Picture, but even if it doesn't it can remain a big contender if it wins something else like the SAG or Bafta. A best picture winner with no acting nominations? You'd have to go back to Slumdog Millionaire which BTW won 8 Oscars and won everything else in the run-up to the Oscars: PGA, DGA, SAG, GG, BAFTA, CC. It's far from there yet, I only mean that IF (and that's a big IF) it wins the PGA tonight, it would become the frontrunner. Tbh in most years any movie that wins the PGA becomes the frontrunner or at least top 2, but I didn't expect that Eddie win for Parasite so I was kinda surprised, therefore my post. But tbh by the same logic it would also be very unique is 1917 wins since it also has no acting nominations. Most signs still indeed point towards a OUATIH win, but the next few days are really exciting to see if any movie can get a surprise push in the Best Picture direction. I'm aware that Parasite is still a definite underdog at the moment and there's a bigger chance that it won't win than that it will, I'm just really excited about the possibility of it winning.
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Post by darkpast on Jan 19, 2020 4:57:19 GMT
PGA awards are tonite, i think we will have the same winner
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Post by kevin on Jan 19, 2020 8:17:36 GMT
1917 wins the PGA. Had OUATIH won the PGA it would've been a done deal, in that case it would've won the Oscar 100%. Now, we're back in the rollercoaster. First we had Parasite as the frontrunner, than OUATIH and now I think it's 1917. A win at the Globes and at the PGA are enough to push it over OUATIH, even though the latter won has won many recent awards including the Critics Choice. It'll be interesting to see what happens next. I can imagine a scenario where Parasite takes the SAG & DGA and OUATIH takes the Bafta. In that case, who knows what'll happen on the big night. But for now, I think the PGA shows that 1917 is still gaining momentum, while OUATIH is losing it.
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Post by kevin on Jan 21, 2020 19:18:34 GMT
I made this overview of the combined Best Picture picks on GoldDerby (a website where people predict the Oscars and usually the most accurate and 'official' odds for the Oscars). It shows the percentage of the votes each of the nominated movies had over time. I only took into account the 9 movies that were eventually nominated to save time so the percentages of these 9 movies always sum to 100%. Open it in a new window to see more details. As you can see, 1917 is about to overtake Once Upon a Time In Hollywood as the frontrunner. As not everyone updates their bets the second something happens there is a bit of a delayed reponse, but believe me when I say that 1917 is already definitely the frontrunner, even though it hasn't passed OUATIH in terms of #1 votes yet (it will probably do so tomorrow). Parasite is also on the rise and will most likely continue to climb, probably even overtaking OUATIH before the Oscars. The x-axis runs up until the 9th of February (the day of the Oscars) to give an idea of how much time there is left. I believe that, unless something crazy happens, this will be a 1917 vs. Parasite race with OUATIH as the outsider. The DGA, WGA & Baftas are the 3 awards left that can significantly impact the votes and the impact of their results will also be shown in this graph in the future. I'll try to update the graph in this post as time goes on.ย
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bd74
Junior Member
#WalkAway
@bd74
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Post by bd74 on Jan 21, 2020 21:26:30 GMT
We already know that the BAFTAs are gonna go gaga over 1917, as that's their most nominated film. So that's a done deal. What will be interesting to see is what direction the DGA and WGA take. Either or both could go to Parasite.
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Post by kevin on Jan 21, 2020 22:12:20 GMT
We already know that the BAFTAs are gonna go gaga over 1917, as that's their most nominated film. So that's a done deal. What will be interesting to see is what direction the DGA and WGA take. Either or both could go to Parasite. Agreed. I think it's 99% certain 1917 will take the Bafta, a movie about British soldiers during WW1 screams Bafta. I also agree about the WGA/DGA. If I'm being conservative I'd say Parasite gets the WGA and Mendes the DGA, but I think the DGA race is a very close call and will be interesting to follow regarding the Oscars.
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Post by kevin on Feb 2, 2020 11:18:45 GMT
Here's the most recent graph. We'll see what happens after the Baftas tonight. They are the last big awards show that still has enough of a timespan before the Oscars to be a good predictor or to have a possible impact on the Oscar result.
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Post by Vits on Feb 9, 2020 18:52:02 GMT
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Post by Vits on Feb 10, 2020 4:55:09 GMT
I got 17/24. My initial gut told me that 1917 and FORD V FERRARI would win Sound Mixing and Sound Editing respectively, but then I switched them after reading about their wins in previous ceremonies! Fuck!
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Post by kevin on Feb 10, 2020 4:57:45 GMT
I got 19/24. I didn't get Bong Joon-ho for Directing, Ford v Ferrari for Editing, Ford v Ferrari for Sound Editing, Toy Story 4 for Animated Feature & The Neighbors' Window for Live Action Short.
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Post by mslo79 on Feb 10, 2020 6:12:52 GMT
More politics for Best Picture, as usual. *roles eyes*
God forbid they give it to a movie that actually deserves to win Best Picture.
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Post by Vits on Feb 10, 2020 6:16:12 GMT
More politics for Best Picture, as usual. *roles eyes* More fake claims about politics, as usual. *roles eyes* God forbid they give it to a movie that actually deserves to win Best Picture. They did. ๐
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Post by kevin on Feb 10, 2020 6:23:47 GMT
This is the first time since 2007 that my #1 movie of the year (No Country for Old Men) won Best Picture and the first time it has happened since I started watching the Oscars about 10 years ago. I'm so happy!
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Post by hi224 on Feb 10, 2020 7:08:14 GMT
i am happy pretty much voted parasite.
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Post by Vits on Feb 10, 2020 12:33:54 GMT
a little Korean director The stone faced Larson has won an undeserved Oscar
an average and unmoving performance from a deaf actress, because it won the sentimental Academy vote. It must be so easy to be a dick like that when you hide behind a keyboard. I'd pay any amount of money to see you say those things to them in person. No matter what movie won B.P. there would still be people claiming that the wrong movie won for some reason unrelated to judging a movie.
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