Football bets/tips for the weekend

This evening I've got...

Cardiff
Stoke
Ayr

Ammanford
Haverfordwest
Afan Lido
Forres Mechanics

There's been a very slight fluctuation in the Leicester v Chelsea odds with the home side narrowing to 6/4 from 8/5 (still worth looking at, surely) and the visitors straying to 17/10 from 31/20. I'm still fancying Leicester at those odds but have predicted a stalemate, so will not change. With Vardy back and Tammy Abraham facing a late fitness test it's Leicester with the most convincing fire power up front at the moment and the Foxes double chance at 4/9 is good acca fodder.
Verdict : Draw.

Bournemouth's woeful display in the cup defeat to Arsenal illustrated one of two things - they're still sh*te after seeing off Brighton in the previous game or Eddie Howe is totally concentrated on staying up and couldn't give a fig about anything else. Villa arrive off the back of qualifying for the League Cup Final and have taken four points from their last six. Recently signed striker Samatta played a middling game on his debut v Leicester and will be hoping to open his account at Dean Court. The Cherries are 11/10 while the away win pays 23/10. It's a tough call and the draw is skinny at 13/5 but I've made a not totally confident prediction.
Verdict : Bournemouth to edge it.

Crystal Palace's New Year slump continued last week with the 0-2 home defeat to rejuvenated Southampton. Their last win was against West Ham on Boxing Day and they've since taken just 4 points from 15 (four draws) They entertain a Sheff Utd side who in their last five outings have faced Man City twice, Liverpool and Arsenal - the only respite being the 1-0 win v Hammers. The book has no confidence in the Eagles and it's 2/1 the home win with the visitors also odds-against at 6/4 - the draw is the stingiest of the weekend, coming in at an anorexic 21/10.
Verdict : Draw.

Southampton have climbed to 9th in the table courtesy of collecting 17 of their last 21 points which includes victories at Leicester and Chelsea. Hosts Liverpool dismissed West Ham on Wednesday as a matter of course and sit now on 70 points. Some simple arithmetic and hypothesis : Should City win all their remaining games of the season they will finish on 93 points (that would include beating Liverpool at The Ethiad in April) I make it that Liverpool would still win the title by amassing just another 24 points from the possible 42, a win-only rate of about 55 or 60%, isn't it? Anyway, Klopp won't be interested in my hypothetical stats and whatnot, he doesn't feel anything yet, and I'm only trying to subtract some of the boredom out of the title 'race'. You'll struggle to get more than 1/4 for the home win and if you fancy Southampton to inflict Liverpool's first defeat of the campaign, feel free at 11/1.
Verdict : Up to 73 points.

Steve Bruce has failed to entice Olivier Giroud to Newcastle but at least the league goals are beginning to come for Newcastle, and from various quarters, if not from Toon midfielder Ki Sung who I see has just now been shown the door having had his contract cancelled by mutual consent. The late, late show at Everton last time out was quite spectacular with goals in the 95th and 96th minutes to earn a 2-2 draw. And in the previous game it was another stoppage time stonker with the 94th minute one-nothing win over Chelsea. The players, whatever's going on behind the scenes, need to keep focused on the pitch and let off-the-field business take care of itself. Bruce will surely be drilling this into his troops. Visitors Norwich succumbed to a 79th minute Heung Son winner at Spurs last week after trying to hang on for a point. The Canaries have got to make the most of this one because next up for them is Liverpool, Wolves, Leicester and Sheff Utd, for crissakes. 6/5 the home plays a thin 23/10 the away.
Verdict : Home win.

Watford were victims of another late show last time out with Ngoyo's 96th minute pot securing the three points for Villa and leaving The Hornets with only their second league defeat under Nigel Pearson (the first was v Liverpool) Visitors Everton are reasonably perched in 12th place despite that late points-dropper v Toon last time out. Iwobi should return for Everton after injury (if they want him) and Richarlison's knee niggle shouldn't keep him out (if they want him - cor, not many) while I'm hearing from Watford's head physiotherapist that Danny Welbeck's thigh trouble has been successfully sorted and that he should be available for selection. There's no more than the breadth of one of Carlo Ancelotti's eyebrow hairs between the odds, with Everton marginal favourites at 13/8 with the home side at 7/4.
Verdict : Hornets to buzz.

A month into David Moyes' return to West Ham and currently his win rate is precisely 0.46% down on his previous tenure at the club. This might be early-doors acceptable until you consider that his previous overall win rate was 29.03%. They host Brighton who have lost 8 of their 12 away-days and sit 19th in the Away Table above only Norwich. Hammers are hairline favourites at 13/8 to Brighton's 17/10 (a difference of 7p profit to a £1 stake) West Ham may field new loan midfielder Tomas Soucek (10 goals for Slavia Prague this season in 19 appearances) but it's at the back that West Ham are dodgy and Brighton will sense this, particularly as The Hammers haven't beaten them in the last five EPL encounters.
Verdict : Moyes to up his win rate.

I've finally lost count of the number of games Wolves have played this season but I know it's more than any other EPL side. While Klopp and Gladioli harp on to anyone with half an ear about fixture fatigue, Nuno Santos (though not without the odd moan of his own) largely keeps quiet and gets on with it. They did appear a little jaded on New Year's Day at Watford after failing for twenty minutes to capitalize on a Hornet's red card and were beaten 2-1. An 84th minute Firmino pot saw them lose 1-2 to Liverpool last time out. Hosts Man Utd, in the wake of the earth-shattering revelation from OSG that Alexis Sanchez will return to Old Trafford and prove us all wrong, went down 0-2 to Burnley in their last home outing and are a confidence-sapping 23/20 to see off Wolves, themselves a tempting 5/2.
Verdict : Wolves to win.

4th round FA Cup defeat aside, Burnley have started the stabilization process, it appears. It just couldn't continue the way it was going. With impressive wins v Leicester and Man Utd, they now look for a third successive win, this time against visitors Arsenal, unbeaten in four. Tradition tells us in no uncertain terms that Burnley are useless when it comes to playing Arsenal. Since 2009 there have been eleven Premier League head-to-heads and Arsenal have won the lot bar one, a draw in December 2009 with Burnley's Graham Alexander (now manager of Salford City) cancelling out Fabregas' early pot for 1-1. But I'm going against the book, which has the visitors favourites at 1/1 and Dyche's boys at 13/5.
Verdict : Angry bird Dyche still on the warpath.

Tottenham have made a major signing recently but for the life of me I can't remember who he is. Whoever it is, he hasn't affected the market on Spurs, priced up at an enormous 9/2 to beat Man City at the Soccer Chickens Stadium. Is anyone tempted? I thought not. Don't let the bookie lure you in, he speak with forked tongue. This is the second of the two Sunday games, both featuring the north London sides, and City rock up at a just-about acca-worthy 8/15. But. wait, some people are saying, needlessly, this is not the same City as last season. Gladiola's getting itchy and that Jurgen Klopp features routinely in his nightmares as he tosses and turns while Cristina sooths his fevered brow "Tranquila, tranquila, shush, Pep bebé... el mal hombre Klopp no ​​está aquí, he gone, baby, he no hurt you"
Verdict : Nightmare for Maureen not Guardiola.

Next week sees the EPL winter break except that it isn't, not strictly speaking. Half the teams are in action next week, the other half the following week. You didn't think the Premier League was gonna lose a fortnight's straight revenue, surely.

( @ Mr Fury, The drunk's nag staggered in 6th of 8)