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Post by drystyx on Nov 5, 2020 17:38:20 GMT
First, the news about sprint favorite VEKOMA scratching with the fever. I don't know if covid is a factor, and maybe the vet doesn't know yet, and I don't know if the track would say if there was an outbreak.
But, this isn't unusual. Only one fever among the hundreds of entrants in cup races, that's probably even less than typical, so I don't think it's a factor until we get over a dozen such scratches.
First of all, the big one:
Saturday, November 7, 2020, Keeneland's 12th Race, Grade 1 Classic at 1 1/4 mile on dirt.
1. TACITUS 12-1. Expect horsemen and old pros to go with Mott, since these are all class runners, all big boys, and handicappers in this case usually go with the best trainer, the one who would only enter the race if he had the horse (or colt or mare or filly, I'll go generic with "horse" from hereon), at 200% and fit. On the other hand, Mott entered a lot of runners for this date in other races, and that isn't a good sign. It's more of a sign of assistants making claims too optimistic. Still, I can't see Mott going with this one unless he's perfect. If he isn't perfect, Mott will scratch him any way, and I get a refund.
2. TIZ THE LAW 9-2 looks to be the top three year old, but the big races have indicated, if not proven, that this is a terrible batch of three year old males, with a filly who couldn't win the Oaks destroying them. After winning the 1 1/2 mile Belmont and 1 1/4 Travers, this one is tuckered out, and going downhill. He may bounce back up, but demand value for that.
3. BY MY STANDARDS 30-1 but that's a bit of an overlay. He just isn't a big name. He's a 4 year old who ran 12th in last year's Kentucky Derby, and 2nd in a grade 1 (the Whitney at Saratoga) two races back, to Improbable.
4. TOM'S D'ETAT 15-1 should actually be higher odds than Standards, but probably won't be. He ran third in that same Whitney stakes. He's 7 years old, and that works in his favor. Last year, around this season, he was good, wining two consecutive races, Grade 2 and Grade 1.
5. TITLE READY 40-1 and Dallas Stewart is no longer a well kept secret. He never was among handicappers who used his Golden Soul and Commanding Curve in past derbies at long odds. Those were superior bred ones. This one also has a great pedigree, but at age 5 has not shown this level of class. He ran 5th and 3rd in Grade 3 races this year. That doesn't bespeak of Breeder Cup classic material, but his last race was at Keeneland, which traditionally is where the best horses in the world do run. I usually use Stewart, as he gave me good payouts in the aforementioned derbies, but I think you have to be a Dallas Stewart fan to go with this one.
6. HIGHER POWER 40-1 another 5 year old, but this one invades from the West, typically a good place to come from with horses into Kentucky. He ran 4th to Maximum Security in a Grade 1 at this distance last outing. Good bloodlines.
7. GLOBAL CAMPAIGN 10-1 a 4 year old who won his last two races, the most recent a Grade 1 at Saratoga, at this distance, beating Tacitus, and you know I like Tacitus. Certainly a contender.
8. IMPROBABLE 9-5 as we get to the Baffert trio. This 4 year old was fifth, moved up to 4th, in last year's Derby, which was a good group. He's won three races in a row, all grade one races, so he deserves to be favored here.
9. AUTHENTIC 8-1 is Baffert's 3 year old among a weak 3 year old crop, and he's a speedball from the gate, so any improvement makes him very dangerous. He won this year's Kentucky Derby, but that race looked very strange with jockeys allowing the two low price horses to get big easy leads all down the backstretch. Still, Baffert is always a contender
10. MAXIMUM SECURITY 3-1 is a sentimental choice for the rich elitists and the crowd that don't usually follow horse racing. We still get mobsters crying about last year's Derby, and he is the class here. He wasn't even trained by Baffert in last year's Kentucky Derby, where he won and was rightfully disqualified the same way so many high price non mob horses were disqualified for the same interference before the race. Now that he has Baffert caring for him with the best that money can buy, one can expect him to be tough. In fact, I think he's more of a threat than Improbable. Oh, almost forgot-He won the Grade 1 Pacific on the West coast at this distance, before finishing second to Improbable in the Grade 2 Awesome Again at 1 1/8 mile, a furlong shorter than this race. Looks like the "go to Baffert runner" here.
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Post by nutsberryfarm 🏜 on Nov 5, 2020 17:39:41 GMT
what's the weather look like?
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Post by TheGoodMan19 on Nov 5, 2020 18:18:56 GMT
Tacitus
Improbable
Tom's D'Etat
This is a solid field
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Post by drystyx on Nov 5, 2020 23:23:39 GMT
Friday is the Juvenile day for all you delinquents.
Friday 11-6-2020, Keeneland's 6th Race: 5 1/2 furlong Turf for 2 year olds.
1. MIGHTY GURKHA 30-1 British invader whose last race was terrible, but had good races before that. He began his racing career in June, which is early for a two year old, so I'm under the impression his last race is start of a downhill trend, but he could bounce back.
2. WINDY CITY RED 20-1 Third in an ungraded stakes at Santa Anita. Could fit here, but should be a long shot
3. LIPIZZANER 12-1 British invader. O'Brien usually has more British invaders than anyone in Breeder's Cup, and he comes here again. He doesn't usually outrun his odds. Solid enough, though. Golden Pal beat him, but not by much. Looks like O'Brien thinks he's improved. Looks like a "wise guy" horse.
4. COUNTY FINAL 12-1 First of the two Asmussen runners. Ran 4th in a Grade 3, beaten by three others here, but looks like a steady runner, and Asmussen is good with two year old runners. Actually had one of the better forward moves in the Belmont race.
5. COWAN 9-2 has not been in a graded stakes, but has good form, coming from behind to finish on the board in the last two, once at Keeneland. And Asmussen is tops with two year olds. Very strong contender
6. UBETTABELIEVEIT 20-1 One of the Beatles. Well, one of the British invasion, but from overseas form, he's outclassed. He's the Ringo of the British group. But Ringo gave us some classics. Won't dismiss.
7, MOMOS 6-1 Clemente hasn't been heard from much lately, but he's a big gun. This is one with early speed. He began on dirt, but went to turf last time to run third in a Grade 3 after leading most of the way. Could be the change in surface, since turf runners come from behind more often than dirt runners, so improvement is expected. Will it be enough? He has Forty Niner bloodlines in him, which usually means good sprinting from off the pace in distances like these, and improvement with age. He could be good enough now.
8. AMANZI YIMPILO 15-1 This the first of seven runners that Wesley Ward entered in this race, which means he thinks little of the competition, but no one has seven Grade 1 runners of the same classification. This one ran well out West, but has not been in graded stakes.
9. AFTER FIVE 30-1 Ward's maiden never won a race. Ward is showing that he thinks all of his stable is about equal, and that means these longer shots are better than they appear, and his favorites are worse than they appear. There's too many to take seriously.
10. BODENHEIMER 20-1 One of the few non-Ward runners with super early foot in ungraded races, and takes a class hike, dangerous for those with early foot.
11. INTO THE SUNRISE 15-1 Wesley Ward tries to cover all the bases. This is a speedy one from the gate, and faded to fourth at Keeneland in a Grade 2. There should be more speed in a Grade 1, so demand a big price if you play it.
12. DIRTY DANGLE 10-1 Two for two, no graded stakes. Mark Casse usually has them run super or mediocre. One doesn't expect him to run third or fourth. This one was in Canada, where they typically run very fast times, although the last two years that's tapered off, so perhaps Woodbine's race course isn't as rock hard as it was. This is a FILLIE, so demand value.
13. SECOND OF JULY 6-1 is two for two, winning a grade 3 and looking good, but this is a class test. He looks like one of the contenders off of form.
14. GOLDEN PAL 7-2 Ward's expected favorite. Won a grade 2 in Great Britain at Ascot before traveling the U.S. where he won an ungraded stakes in New York. DRF picks him as an 8-5 favorite. I have to be skeptical when Ward puts a zillion runners in this race, like he's trying desperately, and none are stellar.
15. BLAME THE BOOZE AE Ward hammering away here. 9th in a Grade 2 at Keeneland. Has been in longer races, so expect this one, if he draws in, to be Ward's late runner.
16. SYPSY KING AE Ward again. 5th in the last two, one a grade 3, the other ungraded. Like most of Ward's, has early foot.
17. TRADE DEAL AE-Yep, Wesley Ward again. Won a maiden, then sixth in a Grade 3. Truly bespeaks of a desperate stable
STYXPIX:
3. LIPPIZANNER
5. Cowan
4. County Final
7. Momos
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Post by drystyx on Nov 6, 2020 0:42:11 GMT
The Juvenile Day keeps going:
Friday 11-6-20 Keeneland Race 7: Grade 1 Juvenile Turf 1 mile Turf: 2 year old:
1. SEALIWAY 20-1 is the first of the European invaders, winning a Grade 1 in France last time out. A bit of a class test, but he's got class. Also some speed.
2. NEW MANDATE 15-1 is a British invader who won his last three races, the last one a Grade 2.
3. ABARTA 6-1 is lightly race. This is only his third lifetime start. He was second in the Grade 2 Bourbon at Keeneland last time. Trainer Brad Cox has been superb the past four years or so. He had a good forward move at Ellis Park on the turf, to win his maiden, on a day when the track wasn't as hard and fast as usual.
4. PUBLIC SECTOR 15-1 ran second in a Grade 2 last time. This is his third lifetime start. Trainer Chad Brown has been more impressive than even Baffert the past five years or so, but has tailed off. Hard to say.
5. CADILLAC 3-1 is the class and a British invader. Ran fifth in a Grade 1 last time out, but won a Grade 2 the race before, in Ireland.
6. MUTASAABEQ 9-2 is Todd Pletcher's entry, and looks very good on paper, winning the Grade 2 Bourbon last out at Keeneland, and doing it the hard way, coming from far back. Often, these kind bounce and don't get the trip. Still, must be respected.
7. FIRE AT WILL 8-1 comes off a good win in a Grade 2 on a slower than usual track, so his feet shouldn't be sore. Trainer Michael Maker had been underachieving till about a year or two ago. On form, he looks pretty good.
8. OUTADORE 15-1 is undefeated in two starts for Wesley Ward. He gets lots of purse class from his Kentucky Downs win, so this is a bit of a class test. he has early speed and rises in class, which means he'll likely have lots of company trying to wear him down..
9. BATTLEGROUND 20-1 is the entry from O'Brien, who usually has an entry. He's only had three races in his life, so he should be fresher than most. He won his last race, a Grade 2. Figures to be one of the better British invaders, but who knows for sure?
10. EBEKO 12-1 might get bet down since trainer Peter Miller wiped his butt with the other trainers in last year's Breeder's Cup. He just wiped everyone else out, to the amazement of the world. He put himself on the radar for a while. This one just won an ungraded stakes out West, and was in Ireland, where Cadillac beat him, but that was before Miller trained him.
11. GRETZKY THE GREAT 10-1 is Mark Casse's runner. Casse is an "all or bust" sort, whose horses usually either run super or out. This one has fast times at Woodbine, winning his last three races there. He has early speed.
12. GO ATHLETICO 15-1 ran second in a Grade 2 in France last time out. Lightly raced, not much class in terms of money purses. He could change that.
13. DEVILWALA 15-1 British invader is lightly race. Three of his four starts are Grade 1 and 2 in Great Britain, sporting a second, then seventh, then fourth place finish. He has been running with early speed.
14. THE LIR JET 20-1 Of the British invasion, he comes off of four races, all Grade 1 and 2, winning the first one, but going downhill afterwards. He is one of the best bred ones here for turf. Trainer Michael Bell is a veteran.
15. BARRISTER TOM AE Got his class from the big purses at Kentucky Downs, where he won a bit pot on turf at a mile. Ran 8th in following race at Keeneland, so he is a long shot
16. HARLAN ESTATE AE-Should this long shot draw in, he is untested for class, has decent pedigree, and would be usable on a long shot basis. Just broke his maiden at Santa Anita, so you would just be gambling on how good he can get
STYXPIX:
10. EBEKO
5. Cadillac
11. Gretzky the Great, but not to run third. Either to win or bust
3 Abarta
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Post by drystyx on Nov 6, 2020 0:53:25 GMT
Friday 11-6-2020 Keeneland Breeder's Cup Race 8, Grade 1 Fillies 2 year old 1 1/16 mile
1. SIMPLY RAVISHING 3-1 Undefeated in three starts, including the Grade 1 Alibades at Keeneland.
2. VEQUIST 15-1 broke her maiden in a Grade 1 in New York to stamp class on herself.
3. DAYOUTOFTHEOFFICE 6-1 Undefeated in three starts, first in Florida, then two in New York, most lately a Grade 1.
4. THOUGHTFULLY 15-1 After winning his first races, including a Grade 2 in New York, she ran fourth at Keeneland against real competition.
5. GIRL DADDY 9-2 Dale Romans test this one for class after being undefeated in two starts, the latest a Grade 3 at Churchill, a very impressive race.
6. CRAZY BEAUTIFUL 6-1 Second in Grade 1 Alcibades at Keeneland. Ran well. I personally never won on a Mcpeek horse, but some people have.
7. PRINCESS NOOR 9-5 Hard to ignore Baffert here, undefeated in 3 starts out West, including a Grade 1 and 2. Deserves to be favorite
STYXPIX:
5. GIRL DADDY
7. Princess Noor
6. Crazy Beautiful
1. Simply Ravishing
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Post by drystyx on Nov 6, 2020 1:06:17 GMT
Friday 11-6-2020 Keeneland Breeder's Cup Race 9, Grad 1 Fillies 2 year old, 1 mile Turf:
1. OODNADATTA 20-1
2. MISS AMULET 12-1
3. ALDA 12-1
4. PLUM ALI 4-1
5. AUNT PEARL 3-1
6. NAZUMA 30-1
7. TERAGONAL 20-1
8. MOTHER EARTH 20-1
9. MADONE 10-1
10. CAMPANELLE 4-1
11. ROYAL APPROVAL
12. SPANISH LOVEAFFAIR 15-1
13. UNION GABLES 20-1
14. EDITOR AT LARGE 12-1
15. INVINCIBLE GAL 30-1
16. SNOWFALL 20-1
For some reason, my printer didn't print out the entire form on this race, so I'm passing. Feel free to make comments on any race.
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Post by drystyx on Nov 6, 2020 1:28:53 GMT
Friday 11-6-2020 Keeneland Breeders Cup Race 10, Grade 1 2 year old 1 1/16 mile.
Now this is the champion race for 2 year old prospects for next year's Kentucky Derby, but that's like saying a 2 year old is going to beat a 3 year old, so it's unlikely a Kentucky Derby winner will be in the race. This is for colts who have matured early, as a rule.
What is the likelihood? Well, there are good trainers here, but most here are known as "2 year old trainers" who train "hard". That doesn't mean "bad". It just means they're ready from day one, and aren't likely to improve as much as someone trained by Mott or McGaughey or Stewart or McGlaughlin.
The field:
1. CAMP HOPE 30-1 First of two McPeek horses. Has had one race, a maiden win, so this is a huge class test. Demand value of at least 25-1 if you like him.
2. KING FURTY 30-1 McPeek is someone I never had a winner with, and since this one looks outclassed, running 8th in the race where he faced the likes of these, he'll probably beat me.
3. REINVESTMENT RISK 9-2 Chad Brown has been more threatening than even Baffert the past five years. This one has a lot of class, but some will regard him as a "seconditis" horse from his two second place finishes in Grade 1 races in New York. He's bred to be good as a two year old.
4. LIKEABLE 30-1 comes off maiden win for Pletcher, a great one with two year old runners.
5. ESSENTIAL QUALITY 7-2 is undefeated in two races for Brad Cox, and is actually the class of the race.
6. KEEPMEINMIND 30-1 is a maiden, but more maidens are winning these races than they did in the last century. Was second in a Grade 1 last time out, so he's dangerous.
7. JACKIE'S WARRIOR 9-5 is one of the Asmussen runners, and we all know how good Asmussen is with 2 year old runners. He's undefeated in four starts, including two Grade 1 races
8. CLASSIER 12-1 Even Baffert can't be favored with this one who has only won a maiden race, and is going into the premier Grade 1 race for two year olds now. Has to be considered, though, because Baffert gets great stock.
9. SITTIN ON GO 15-1 is a well bred runner for Dale Romans, although bred to run better at age 3 and 4. He is undefeated in two races now, though, including a Grade 3 at Churchill. I'm surprise d Romans is pushing this one who is bred for the Derby. Maybe he's that good now.
10. DREAMER'S DISEASE 20-1. won an optional claiming at Keeneland, which isn't an endorsement for class, but it is a win. Long shot.
11. NEXT 20-1-took four races to break his maiden. Is bred to be better at age 3 and 4. Could he be good enough now?
13. ROMBAUER 15-1 Ran a decent race to be second in California last time out. Has some class.
14. CALIBRATE 30-1 Asmussen usually has two years ready. This one ran poorly in a Grade 1 at Keeneland, but is a Distorted Humor (Forty Niner) son, who should get better. Hard to see improving this much, though.
STYXPIX:
5. ESSENTIAL QUALITY
3 Reinvestment Risk
9. Sittin on Go
13. Rombauer
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Post by drystyx on Nov 6, 2020 14:40:38 GMT
Now for Saturday.
11-7-2020 Saturday, Keeneland Breeder's Cup Race 4: Grade 1 7 Furlong Filly and Mare Sprint:
1. SPEECH 10-1 Outstanding 3 year old who disappointed in Ky Oaks after winning Grade 1 Ashland at Keeneland. Had been going long, and now goes back to sprint. Should come from well back, so if the half mile goes in 45 or more, she's in trouble, but if the half mile from leaders goes in 44 or less, she is likely the one to beat.
2. GAMINE 2-1 Baffert runner is very fast, and shows early foot, comes off longer race, so may stalk instead of get too near the lead. Could have ideal trip. Has been in three consecutive Grade 1 races, running first, first, and third, the third being the 1 1/8 mile Oaks. Obvious second choice in betting. Maybe even favorite with Baffert.
3. COME DANCING 15-1 Comes off Grade 2 win at Saratoga. Appears to be the "stalker" here, and may be the one with least traffic trouble.
4. INTHEMIDSTOFBIZ 30-1 Won a Grade 2 last time out at Keeneland, and has early speed. Looks to ensure early pace, along with Venetian and Gamine against Empress. Pace is big factor in this race
5. SCONSIN 20-1 Greg Foley does well on opening days of meets, but this one has not been a Grade 1 race. Still, won a Grade 2 last time out, and did it very well. Looks most promising of the longer prices.
6. VENETIAN HARBOR 10-1 Speed ball ran first or second in five consecutive Grade 1 and 2 races. Her presence is needed to ensure a pace from the Empress
7. SERENGETI EMPRESS 9-5 Obvious favorite, class and speed for dangerous Amoss. Has pedigree to run well at older age, and she's only four years old
8. SALLY'S CURLIN 20-1 Third in the Grade 1 against two top contenders in best race of career for Romans.
9. BELL'S THE ONE 9-2 Forward move puts her ahead if the pace is good. Comes off Grade 1 victory against favorite, but it's tough to do that twice in a row for evenly matched runners.
I'm counting on a speed duel for my picks.
STYXPIX:
5. SCONSIN
1. Speech
7. Serengeti Empress
9. Bell's the One
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Post by drystyx on Nov 6, 2020 23:37:45 GMT
Friday is the Juvenile day for all you delinquents. Friday 11-6-2020, Keeneland's 6th Race: 5 1/2 furlong Turf for 2 year olds. 1. MIGHTY GURKHA 30-1 British invader whose last race was terrible, but had good races before that. He began his racing career in June, which is early for a two year old, so I'm under the impression his last race is start of a downhill trend, but he could bounce back. 2. WINDY CITY RED 20-1 Third in an ungraded stakes at Santa Anita. Could fit here, but should be a long shot 3. LIPIZZANER 12-1 British invader. O'Brien usually has more British invaders than anyone in Breeder's Cup, and he comes here again. He doesn't usually outrun his odds. Solid enough, though. Golden Pal beat him, but not by much. Looks like O'Brien thinks he's improved. Looks like a "wise guy" horse. 4. COUNTY FINAL 12-1 First of the two Asmussen runners. Ran 4th in a Grade 3, beaten by three others here, but looks like a steady runner, and Asmussen is good with two year old runners. Actually had one of the better forward moves in the Belmont race. 5. COWAN 9-2 has not been in a graded stakes, but has good form, coming from behind to finish on the board in the last two, once at Keeneland. And Asmussen is tops with two year olds. Very strong contender 6. UBETTABELIEVEIT 20-1 One of the Beatles. Well, one of the British invasion, but from overseas form, he's outclassed. He's the Ringo of the British group. But Ringo gave us some classics. Won't dismiss. 7, MOMOS 6-1 Clemente hasn't been heard from much lately, but he's a big gun. This is one with early speed. He began on dirt, but went to turf last time to run third in a Grade 3 after leading most of the way. Could be the change in surface, since turf runners come from behind more often than dirt runners, so improvement is expected. Will it be enough? He has Forty Niner bloodlines in him, which usually means good sprinting from off the pace in distances like these, and improvement with age. He could be good enough now. 8. AMANZI YIMPILO 15-1 This the first of seven runners that Wesley Ward entered in this race, which means he thinks little of the competition, but no one has seven Grade 1 runners of the same classification. This one ran well out West, but has not been in graded stakes. 9. AFTER FIVE 30-1 Ward's maiden never won a race. Ward is showing that he thinks all of his stable is about equal, and that means these longer shots are better than they appear, and his favorites are worse than they appear. There's too many to take seriously. 10. BODENHEIMER 20-1 One of the few non-Ward runners with super early foot in ungraded races, and takes a class hike, dangerous for those with early foot. 11. INTO THE SUNRISE 15-1 Wesley Ward tries to cover all the bases. This is a speedy one from the gate, and faded to fourth at Keeneland in a Grade 2. There should be more speed in a Grade 1, so demand a big price if you play it. 12. DIRTY DANGLE 10-1 Two for two, no graded stakes. Mark Casse usually has them run super or mediocre. One doesn't expect him to run third or fourth. This one was in Canada, where they typically run very fast times, although the last two years that's tapered off, so perhaps Woodbine's race course isn't as rock hard as it was. This is a FILLIE, so demand value. 13. SECOND OF JULY 6-1 is two for two, winning a grade 3 and looking good, but this is a class test. He looks like one of the contenders off of form. 14. GOLDEN PAL 7-2 Ward's expected favorite. Won a grade 2 in Great Britain at Ascot before traveling the U.S. where he won an ungraded stakes in New York. DRF picks him as an 8-5 favorite. I have to be skeptical when Ward puts a zillion runners in this race, like he's trying desperately, and none are stellar. 15. BLAME THE BOOZE AE Ward hammering away here. 9th in a Grade 2 at Keeneland. Has been in longer races, so expect this one, if he draws in, to be Ward's late runner. 16. SYPSY KING AE Ward again. 5th in the last two, one a grade 3, the other ungraded. Like most of Ward's, has early foot. 17. TRADE DEAL AE-Yep, Wesley Ward again. Won a maiden, then sixth in a Grade 3. Truly bespeaks of a desperate stable STYXPIX: 3. LIPPIZANNER 5. Cowan 4. County Final 7. Momos Ward had the winner, and no reason to enter the others. Final results: Golden Pal 3.60 to win, second was Cowan, third was long shot Ubetabelievit. 14-5-6. I saw the superfecta, and my pick, number 3 Lipizzaner did finish fourth, but that's not good. My two top picks wound up second and fourth, so that's a C-
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Post by drystyx on Nov 6, 2020 23:39:52 GMT
The Juvenile Day keeps going: Friday 11-6-20 Keeneland Race 7: Grade 1 Juvenile Turf 1 mile Turf: 2 year old: 1. SEALIWAY 20-1 is the first of the European invaders, winning a Grade 1 in France last time out. A bit of a class test, but he's got class. Also some speed. 2. NEW MANDATE 15-1 is a British invader who won his last three races, the last one a Grade 2. 3. ABARTA 6-1 is lightly race. This is only his third lifetime start. He was second in the Grade 2 Bourbon at Keeneland last time. Trainer Brad Cox has been superb the past four years or so. He had a good forward move at Ellis Park on the turf, to win his maiden, on a day when the track wasn't as hard and fast as usual. 4. PUBLIC SECTOR 15-1 ran second in a Grade 2 last time. This is his third lifetime start. Trainer Chad Brown has been more impressive than even Baffert the past five years or so, but has tailed off. Hard to say. 5. CADILLAC 3-1 is the class and a British invader. Ran fifth in a Grade 1 last time out, but won a Grade 2 the race before, in Ireland. 6. MUTASAABEQ 9-2 is Todd Pletcher's entry, and looks very good on paper, winning the Grade 2 Bourbon last out at Keeneland, and doing it the hard way, coming from far back. Often, these kind bounce and don't get the trip. Still, must be respected. 7. FIRE AT WILL 8-1 comes off a good win in a Grade 2 on a slower than usual track, so his feet shouldn't be sore. Trainer Michael Maker had been underachieving till about a year or two ago. On form, he looks pretty good. 8. OUTADORE 15-1 is undefeated in two starts for Wesley Ward. He gets lots of purse class from his Kentucky Downs win, so this is a bit of a class test. he has early speed and rises in class, which means he'll likely have lots of company trying to wear him down.. 9. BATTLEGROUND 20-1 is the entry from O'Brien, who usually has an entry. He's only had three races in his life, so he should be fresher than most. He won his last race, a Grade 2. Figures to be one of the better British invaders, but who knows for sure? 10. EBEKO 12-1 might get bet down since trainer Peter Miller wiped his butt with the other trainers in last year's Breeder's Cup. He just wiped everyone else out, to the amazement of the world. He put himself on the radar for a while. This one just won an ungraded stakes out West, and was in Ireland, where Cadillac beat him, but that was before Miller trained him. 11. GRETZKY THE GREAT 10-1 is Mark Casse's runner. Casse is an "all or bust" sort, whose horses usually either run super or out. This one has fast times at Woodbine, winning his last three races there. He has early speed. 12. GO ATHLETICO 15-1 ran second in a Grade 2 in France last time out. Lightly raced, not much class in terms of money purses. He could change that. 13. DEVILWALA 15-1 British invader is lightly race. Three of his four starts are Grade 1 and 2 in Great Britain, sporting a second, then seventh, then fourth place finish. He has been running with early speed. 14. THE LIR JET 20-1 Of the British invasion, he comes off of four races, all Grade 1 and 2, winning the first one, but going downhill afterwards. He is one of the best bred ones here for turf. Trainer Michael Bell is a veteran. 15. BARRISTER TOM AE Got his class from the big purses at Kentucky Downs, where he won a bit pot on turf at a mile. Ran 8th in following race at Keeneland, so he is a long shot 16. HARLAN ESTATE AE-Should this long shot draw in, he is untested for class, has decent pedigree, and would be usable on a long shot basis. Just broke his maiden at Santa Anita, so you would just be gambling on how good he can get STYXPIX: 10. EBEKO 5. Cadillac 11. Gretzky the Great, but not to run third. Either to win or bust 3 Abarta Well, sure picked the wrong four there. Well matched group, came in 7-9-8 with high prices. Winner Fire At Will paid 62.40 to win on a two dollar bet. I'd buy that for a dollar. I got an F- on this one.
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Post by drystyx on Nov 6, 2020 23:42:29 GMT
Friday 11-6-2020 Keeneland Breeder's Cup Race 8, Grade 1 Fillies 2 year old 1 1/16 mile 1. SIMPLY RAVISHING 3-1 Undefeated in three starts, including the Grade 1 Alibades at Keeneland. 2. VEQUIST 15-1 broke her maiden in a Grade 1 in New York to stamp class on herself. 3. DAYOUTOFTHEOFFICE 6-1 Undefeated in three starts, first in Florida, then two in New York, most lately a Grade 1. 4. THOUGHTFULLY 15-1 After winning his first races, including a Grade 2 in New York, she ran fourth at Keeneland against real competition. 5. GIRL DADDY 9-2 Dale Romans test this one for class after being undefeated in two starts, the latest a Grade 3 at Churchill, a very impressive race. 6. CRAZY BEAUTIFUL 6-1 Second in Grade 1 Alcibades at Keeneland. Ran well. I personally never won on a Mcpeek horse, but some people have. 7. PRINCESS NOOR 9-5 Hard to ignore Baffert here, undefeated in 3 starts out West, including a Grade 1 and 2. Deserves to be favorite STYXPIX: 5. GIRL DADDY 7. Princess Noor 6. Crazy Beautiful 1. Simply Ravishing This could have been worse. The favorite was nowhere, and my pick ran third. Still, I get a D for being well off altogether. The winner was Vequist who paid 15.20, trifecta was 2-3-5, Vequist, Dayoutoftheoffice, Girl Daddy.
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Post by drystyx on Nov 6, 2020 23:46:22 GMT
Friday 11-6-2020 Keeneland Breeders Cup Race 10, Grade 1 2 year old 1 1/16 mile. Now this is the champion race for 2 year old prospects for next year's Kentucky Derby, but that's like saying a 2 year old is going to beat a 3 year old, so it's unlikely a Kentucky Derby winner will be in the race. This is for colts who have matured early, as a rule. What is the likelihood? Well, there are good trainers here, but most here are known as "2 year old trainers" who train "hard". That doesn't mean "bad". It just means they're ready from day one, and aren't likely to improve as much as someone trained by Mott or McGaughey or Stewart or McGlaughlin. The field: 1. CAMP HOPE 30-1 First of two McPeek horses. Has had one race, a maiden win, so this is a huge class test. Demand value of at least 25-1 if you like him. 2. KING FURTY 30-1 McPeek is someone I never had a winner with, and since this one looks outclassed, running 8th in the race where he faced the likes of these, he'll probably beat me. 3. REINVESTMENT RISK 9-2 Chad Brown has been more threatening than even Baffert the past five years. This one has a lot of class, but some will regard him as a "seconditis" horse from his two second place finishes in Grade 1 races in New York. He's bred to be good as a two year old. 4. LIKEABLE 30-1 comes off maiden win for Pletcher, a great one with two year old runners. 5. ESSENTIAL QUALITY 7-2 is undefeated in two races for Brad Cox, and is actually the class of the race. 6. KEEPMEINMIND 30-1 is a maiden, but more maidens are winning these races than they did in the last century. Was second in a Grade 1 last time out, so he's dangerous. 7. JACKIE'S WARRIOR 9-5 is one of the Asmussen runners, and we all know how good Asmussen is with 2 year old runners. He's undefeated in four starts, including two Grade 1 races 8. CLASSIER 12-1 Even Baffert can't be favored with this one who has only won a maiden race, and is going into the premier Grade 1 race for two year olds now. Has to be considered, though, because Baffert gets great stock. 9. SITTIN ON GO 15-1 is a well bred runner for Dale Romans, although bred to run better at age 3 and 4. He is undefeated in two races now, though, including a Grade 3 at Churchill. I'm surprise d Romans is pushing this one who is bred for the Derby. Maybe he's that good now. 10. DREAMER'S DISEASE 20-1. won an optional claiming at Keeneland, which isn't an endorsement for class, but it is a win. Long shot. 11. NEXT 20-1-took four races to break his maiden. Is bred to be better at age 3 and 4. Could he be good enough now? 13. ROMBAUER 15-1 Ran a decent race to be second in California last time out. Has some class. 14. CALIBRATE 30-1 Asmussen usually has two years ready. This one ran poorly in a Grade 1 at Keeneland, but is a Distorted Humor (Forty Niner) son, who should get better. Hard to see improving this much, though. STYXPIX: 5. ESSENTIAL QUALITY 3 Reinvestment Risk 9. Sittin on Go 13. Rombauer Finally got a winner, but no exacta or trifecta. Got to hope I hit the classic double. 5 Essential Quality son as expected by most handicappers to pay 9.40 to win. The trifecta numbers were 5-12-6. Essential was followed by two huge long shots. I didn't even mention 12 Hot Rod Charlie. Wouldn't have used him any way. The 6 was a maiden, and I wouldn't have used him either. Since I was way off on the trifecta, even though I had an easy pick winner, I can only grade myself a B- here.
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Post by drystyx on Nov 7, 2020 4:58:55 GMT
Saturday 11-7-2020 Keeneland Breeder's Cup Race 5 Grade 1 Turf Sprint 5 1/2 furlongs.
Short race, big field. I don't have scratches yet, so this is lengthy.
1. BIG RUNNER 12-1 won his only graded stakes race last out, a Grade 2 out West. He has speed and rises in class. I avoid that sort as a rule, since a classier field should have more front running pressure. But, this isn't as speed laden as most Breeder Cup Sprints, so strategy is going to be tough to figure.
2. JUST MIGHT 30-1 stalks off the pace and ran third in two straight Grade 2 races in large fields. Tough to see here, though. Looks like he was entered simply because he belonged off last race.
3. IMPRNIS 8-1 comes off two straight Grade 3 wins, most recently at the big purse track of Kentucky Downs, with the wild and wooly race course an sixth in last year's Breeder's Cup Turf Sprint out West. Just looks like a sucker bet, but may show me different.
4. FRONT RUN THE FED 15-1 was second in a Grade 3 for Chad Brown at Churchill, and that looks to be a training board for this race. The good moves at the slow Aqueduct course is very impressive.
5. QWR YOUE QHIARLW 12-1 is on the improve, off a Grade 3 win, and did win a Grade 1 in Canada in 2019, but tailed off late in the Autumn, which is where we are now.
6. GLASS SLIPPERS 4-1 is a class fillie from overseas, France, with speed to go all the way, it appears. She may be up front by herself, depending on who draws in.
7. LEINSTER 9-2 has won two consecutive Grade 2 races here at Keenland, and may be the favorite in an evenly matched field.
8. OLEKSANTIRA 10-1 Mare shows dangerous forward moves, most recently winning a grade one in open company, and doing it the hard way, from way back. Can't ignore. But that was a lifetime best race, and hard to see her not bouncing.
9. INTO MYSTIC 30-1 Walsh fillie stalks the pace in Grade 3 races, and should be close to the lead here in order to have a chance. Not seeing it, but fillies have been doing well the past decade against boys.
10. BOMBARD 12-1 shows speed in longer races, and in cheaper races. Not sure how close to the pace he'll be. Looks like an outsider here.
11. WILDMAN JACK 8-1 comes from the West, fourth in a Grade 1 and second in a Grade 2, and doesn't go near the lead as a rule. Not sure he'll get a hot pace to run at, but he's a definite contender.
12. GOT STORMY 8-1 Has been improving for Mark Casse, an all or bust style trainer. Since this one won two consecutive Grade 3 races, I don't look for a third consecutive win, but it could happen.
13. TEXAS WEDGE 30-1 would have to have a form reversal for any chance. Has some decent races in past, but none that threaten a Breeders Cup group. However, Miller trains this one, and that makes him worth a look.
14. EXTRAVAGANT KID 12-1 ran second in Grade 2 at Keeneland for Walsh, who usually does well with lower price horses. He doesn't "turn horses around" as much as the class trainSers, but he's a good trainer. This one is a contender who belongs here.
15. EQUILATERAL AE British invader who was beaten fairly well by Glass Slippers, and tailed off. Would have to turn it around.
16. CHAOS THEORY AE I would call this the best of the "also eligible" ones. Had decent moves at Keeneland, Fairgrounds, and other turf tracks with slower times than many other tracks, and he could go unnotice. Should come from behind. Won a Grade 3 at Del Mar and then ran fourth here at Keeneland in a Grade 2.
17. ARCHIDUST AE Asmussen runner has good moves at Belmont, Monmouth, and Gulfstream, recently running 3rd in a Grade 3 six furlong at New York.
18. BULLETPROOF ONE AE Peter Miller, last year's phenom trainer in the Breeders Cup races, trains this fillie who rises in class considerably and has early speed. Would be a mild surprise, but could take it in a field that isn't totally speed laden, if she draws in.
There isn't a ton of early speed, and so I would venture this large field will have several going to the front, and I'll handicap for the fast pace:
STYXPIX:
4. FRONT RUN THE FED
16. (if he draws in from also eligible list) Chaos Theory
14. Extravagant Kid
6. Glass Slippers
8. Oleksandra
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Post by drystyx on Nov 7, 2020 5:29:30 GMT
Saturday 11-7-2020 Keeneland Breeder's Cup Race 6: Grade 1 Dirt Mile, 1 mile
1. ART COLLECTOR 10-1 was highly touted for Derby off Ellis ungraded victory, and was fourth in Preakness. Tough to endorse, but some feel he is a powerhouse.
2. SHARP SAMURAI 6-1 Has been second or third in five consecutive graded stakes out West. Obvious contender.
3. SILVER DUST 20-1 hit the board in two grade 2 stakes at Churchill during a very strange meet. Looks to be outmatched, but may have improved.
4. WAR OF WILL 9-2 has been great on turf, third last time out in Canada, and a winner just before at Keeneland in a Grade 1 You may remember his competing in last year's Triple Crown races, and he looks to have gotten better. Should come from well back, and if there's an honest pace, he's the one to beat.
5. KNICKS GO 20-1 had a habit of running hot and cold for Colebrook. Brad Cox now trains him, and comes off two optional claiming wins, so this is a huge jump in class for an early speed horse.
6. MR. MONEY 20-1 won a Grade 3 last time out, and is an improving long shot useful in exotic bets
7. RUSHIE 10-1 Lightly raced 3 year back on track. One may remember him running third in Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby to Honor A P and Authentic.
8. PIRATE'S PUNCH 15-1 Won Grade 3 at Monmouth, but since Monmouth is difficult to handicap off of their times, a look at Oaklawn shows good times for this type of race. Still must improve.
9. MR FREEZE 12-1 Won Grade 2 Fayette here at Keeneland for Dale Romans, and looks to be improving in fifth race of campaign.
10. COMPLEXITY 3-1 Chad Brown runner should be near lead, if not leading. Won a Grade 2 in New York, and the race before was second in a Grade 1. Fourth race of the campaign. DRF lists him at 2-1, but hard to make anyone that low in a Breeder Cup race with a tough field. Looks tough.
11. JESUS' TEAM 30-1 ran his best career race to run third in the weak Preakness field, so maybe he's on the improve as a three year old, if you want to believe in that angle.
12. OWENDALE 8-1 Second in two consecutive Grade 2 races, and should come from way back if he runs as always. Ran in the classic last year.
13. PINGZIANG AE With the big purses at Japan, this one still can't amass the purse class to belong here. Would have to turn around completely
STYXPIX:
4. WAR OF WILL
9. Mr. Freeze
10. Complexity
7. Rushie
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Post by drystyx on Nov 7, 2020 17:29:15 GMT
11-7-2020 Keeneland Breeder's Cup Race 7: Grade 1 F and M Turf 1 3/16 mile
Some handicappers like to handicap off of shorter races, because it's hard to find this distance in past performances, and longer distances don't let you know what they'll do when not rated so hard.
Comparing some from a mile and an eighth and some from a mile and some from other distances, trying to figure where they are at that particular track in the turn or backstretch, it's a lot of guess work actually.
1. STARSHIP JUBILEE 8-1 Comes off Grade 1 win in Canada against open company. Should help press the pace.
2. SISTERCHARLIE 6-1 one of Chad Brown's runners here. Was third in this same race last year.
3. PEACEFUL 20-1 British invader comes off dismal performance, but if you draw a line through that one, this is another top contender. O'Brien could get a price play here.
4. MEAN MARY 8-1 Figures to go to the lead. Won three of four graded stakes races. Must catch her.
5. MY SISTER NAT 8-1 Competitive in five straight graded stakes for Chad Brown. Another good one in super deep field.
6. RUSHING FAIL 4-1 Chad Brown's most well endorsed contender here comes off three straight graded stakes victories, the past two being Grade 1.
7. TEREBELLUM 20-1 British invader looks to stalk. Was 5th last time out at Newmarket.
8. MUCHO UNUSUAL 12-1 Grade 1 win out West, at low odds, usually runs against just one class level lower. Don't see it this time. Next time, when she goes to Grade 2 or 3.
9, HARVEY'S LIL GOIL 8-1 Mott second only to McCaughey as a trainer to most veteran horse players. This one won a grade 1 last time out at Keeneland.
10. CIVIL UNION 12-1 If it wasn't for Shug training this one, I probably wouldn't give it much of a look. But his patience with this lightly raced 5 year old bears notice, and he is still the best trainer in horse racing. Comes off wins in New York in Grade 2 and Grade 1. Times not stellar, but the surface wasn't hard and fast on those occassions.
11. AUDARYA 20-1 comes off a first and third in French Grade 1 races. Serious threat here.
12. LADY PRANCEALOT 20-1 has been competitive in seven consecutive graded stakes races, winning a Grade 1 in December 2019 in California as a favorite, so his competition was questionable. Has to prove he can compete with this class. Maybe he can. These are all all stars.
13. NAY LADY NAY 12-1 appears to be the least likely of Chad Brown's to win, but when trainers have multiple entries, it always means he thinks they're evenly matched. Has won a Grade 3 and a Grade 2.
14. CAYENNE PEPPER 12-1 appears to be one of the better overseas invaders, winning a Grade 2 in Ireland
STYXPIX:
10. CIVIL UNION
9. Harvey's Lil Goil
2. Sistercharlie
6. Rushing Fail
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Post by drystyx on Nov 7, 2020 18:04:46 GMT
11-7-2020 Saturday Keeneland Race 8: Grade 1 Sprint 6 furlongs:
This was once typically a place where frontrunners would wear each other down, and you could get a deep closer, but that happens less often. Not that many of these have to be on the lead. That makes it harder to handicap for pros. Could unfold a few different ways.
1. ECHO TOWN 20-1 has been somewhat competitive in four straight graded stakes races, which looks like the only reason he's here, but he isn't bad.
2. E Z ROCKET 9-2 Peter Miller had hot time last year in Breeders Cup and seemed like he won everything. This one comes off Grade 2 win at Santa Anita, stalks the pace, and looks like a good bet, but not sure.
3. COLLUSION ILLUSION 6-1 3 year old won three straight races, including a Grade 1, before fading in last race against C Z Rocket.
4. BON RAISON 20-1 Hasn't done anything yet to endorse in this spot. Won an optional claiming in last effort. Must show more.
5. MANNY WAH 20-1 Appears outclassed, but had great forward move at Oaklawn and other tracks. Runs hot and cold a lot.
6. FRANK'S ROCKETTE 8-1 Mott three year old filly has four straight wins, three of them graded stakes, against fillies. Speed ball should push the pace. Needs to, because probably no one else will.
7. WHITMORE 8-1 4th in Grade 2 at Keeneland, but is showing some of the best forward moves from the two through five furlong mark. I like him, but I need value for this one.
8. FIRENZE FIRE 10-1 Kelly of the Breen clan gets an entry in the Breeders Cup, and she probably wouldn't enter just to show up. This one, like many of Kelly's, runs hot and cold. Comes off Grade 2 win. I expect him to run hot (meaning very well), but I could be wrong. Must have value, though.
9. EMPIRE OF GOLD 15-1 2nd to Diamond Oops in grade 2 last time, showing speed. Should push the pace, or else Yaupon could steal this.
10. YAUPON 4-1 is the upstart for Asmussen. Four lifetime starts, four lifetime wins, the last two graded stakes. Always prominent early, even when Rosario is aboard, and Rosario loves to hold them back a mile. Must catch this one.
11. DIAMOND OOPS 15-1 won a Grade 2 last time out, but this one has a history of disappointing when he looks good. Ran 8th in this race last year, for instance.
12. HOG CREEK HUSTLE 20-1 I've bet this one when he won, but that was in lesser races. Vickie Foley doesn't usually get the Breeder Cup horse. Honest, good horse woman, but not one of the big money ones.
13. JASPER CREEK 30-1 Showed speed at 7 furlongs, but shortens up here, so don't expect him to be that close to the lead. Would have to run the race of his life, and that does happen.
14. VEKOMA -SCRATCHED
15. LASTING LEGACY 30-1 has been in much cheaper races. Comes from behind, so may try to get a small slice, but hard to endorse.
STYXPIX:
7 WHITMORE
2. C Z Rocket
8. Firenze Fire
5. Manny Wish
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Post by drystyx on Nov 7, 2020 18:26:54 GMT
Saturday 11-7-2020 Keeneland Race 9: Grade 1 Turf Mile''
1. CIRCUS MAXIMUS 7-2 European invader is class of the race, but comes off 10th place finish in Grade 1. Was fourth in this race last year.
2. KAMEKO 20-1 Euro invading 3 year old has some class, winning a Grade 2 last time out. Expects to stalk pace.
3. LOPE Y FERNANDEZ 15-1 British invader for O'Brien has not been competitive in graded stakes so far.
4. SISKIN 15-1 Euro invader is lightly raced 3 year old, 4th in Grade 1 where Circus was third.
5. DIGITAL AGE 10-1 Chad Brown won Grade 1 Turf Classic with him at Churchill. Figures to come from far back.
6. SAFE VOYAGE 10-1 Euro invader was third by a neck in Grade 1 in France. Tough to leave out.
7. CASA CREED 15-1 Mott runner improving in last two grade 1 stakes, but not there yet. Has good forward move. Must be a Mott fan to take this one.
8. MARCH TO THE ARCH 30-1 Mark Casse runner comes from far back. Been competitive in graded stakes, and as usual for Casse, comes out of Canada where the track is usually hard and fast.
9. ONE MASTER-SCRATCHED
10. HALLADAY 15-1 Had his best race every last time out, winning Grade 1 at Saratoga. Hard to see a repeat.
11. IVAR 12-1 Argentina and Brazil was once home to this hero, who has run well in the U.S., most lately winning a Grade 1 at Keeneland at 14-1 odds.
12. UNI 9-2 Chad Brown mare won a Grade 1 against fillies and mares. Tends to come from far back. Did win this last year!
13. FACTOR THIS 15-1 Brad Cox comes off Grade 1 win at Pimlico. This one has early speed, and should be on the lead.
14. RAGING BULL 6-1 Chad Brown improved this one to run second, and has run only in Grade 1 races the past ten races.
15. ORDER OF AUSTRALIA 30-1 O'Brien generally enters a lot of runners in these races, and this one looks like an also ran. Would have to improve tons.
STYXPIX:
1. CIRCUS MAXIMUS
7. Casa Creed
6. Safe Voyage
14. Raging Bull
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Post by drystyx on Nov 7, 2020 19:02:38 GMT
Not doing so well as I check results. Getting beat by the hot juiced up horse is typical, though. I've never had the "souped up" horse. I think they soup it up after they see I don't bet it.
11-7-2020 Keeneland Breeder's Cup Race 10: Grade 1 Distaff: Fillies and Mares 1 1/8 mile
1. CE CE 20-14th in a Grade 1 last time out, and hanged in stretch at shorter. Bred to improve in shorter distances. Can't completely toss, but she's in tough.
2. HARVEST MOON 20-1 Upstart 3 year old with five lifetime starts. Won the last four, two of them graded stakes. Has early speed and rises in class, so that's a tough combo for class test. Will do well not to fade to the back.
3. DUNBAR ROAD 8-1 Been competitive in Grade 2 for Chad Brown, ran well at Keeneland. 5th in this race last year as 3 year old, so expect improvement.
4. HOROLOGIST 6-1 Won Grade 2 in New York for Mott last race. Still must improve. Well, I'm a Mott fan, so I'm including her.
5. SWISS SKYDIVER 4-1 Beat the boys in Preakness, so this 3 year old will get some bettors I expect, but must show more.
6. LADY KATE 15-1 Early speed faded to 4th last time out in Grade 1, and would be unlikely to do even that well against these.
7. POINT OF HONOR 12-1 Been competitive in four straight grade 1 and 2 races
8. VALIANCE 15-1 Beat Ollie in Grade 1 last time out.
9. OLLIE'S CANDY 15-1 4th in this race last year after being ridden to contend, with no excuse. Still a contender.
10. MONOMOY GIRL 8-5 Brad Cox with the class here. Multiple Grade 1 winner, including this race last year. Should be close throughout
STYXPIX:
3. DUNBAR ROAD
4. Horologist
10. Monomoy Girl
7. Point of Honor
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Post by drystyx on Nov 7, 2020 19:17:38 GMT
11-7-2020 Keeneland Breeders Cup Race 11: Turf 1 1/2 mile
1. ARKLOW 5-2 should be favorite for Brad Cox, despite being in Grade 3 last time, which he won. Was only 8th in this race last year in very disappointing effort, so demand some value.
2. MAGICAL 4-1 First of O'Brien's duo, a mare with class, multiple Grade 1 winner.
3. TARNAWA 8-1 Filly won a Grade 1 in France.
4. MEHDAAYIH 30-1 a Euro filly who has been running in Grade 1 stakes, but not hitting the board. Her fourth place finish last time was her best.
5. DUNJAH 30-1 a filly who has been running well in Germany, 4th in a Grade 1 last time.
6. LORD NORTH 30-1 a Euro invader, ran terrible in his last Grade 1, but did well before that.
7. UNITED 6-1 has been competitive and doing great in several straight Grade 1 and 2 races, including a second last year in this race.
8. RED KING 10-1 won cheaper, a grade 2 and 3 out West, but does belong here.
9. CHANNEL MAKER 7-2 Won two straight Grade 1 races for Mott. Looks to go to lead, or very near it. Must catch him. They do have a mile and a half to do it, though.
10. MOGUL 4-1 O'Brien's second Euro invader here is a classy 3 year old, but in tough. Deserves to be here off grade 1 win.
STYXPIX:
9. CHANNEL MAKER
1. ARKLOW
6. LORD NORTH
2. MAGICAL
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