Post by Kal_1993 on Feb 20, 2017 20:22:02 GMT
Wow! That was a great thriller and a few more scenes still remaining! Eager to know who the CM of UP and Uttarakhand are!
Final Results
UTTAR PRADESH
Seats Swing(2014)
BJP+ 325 -12
SP + Congress 54 (47 + 7) -1
BSP 19 +10
Others 3
Phases BJP SP BSP Congress
Phase 1 - 73 seats 66 3 3
Phase 2 - 67 seats 50 15 2
Phase 3 - 69 seats 55 11 2 1
Phase 4 - 53 seats 40 2 2 3
Phase 5 - 52 seats 44 3 4
Phase 6 - 49 seats 32 7 7 1
Phase 7 - 40 seats 25 6 1
PUNJAB
Congress 77
AAP+ 22
Akali+ 18
UTTARAKHAND
BJP 57
Congress 11
Others 2
GOA
Congress+ 17
BJP+ 14
GFP 3
NCP 1
MGP 3
Independent 2
BJP is forming government with the help of GFP, NCP, MGP and the two independents.
MANIPUR
Congress 28
BJP 21
Left 1
Others 10
Currently BJP is forming government with the help of "Others" and a few defectors from Congress.
Exit polls on 9th March,2016
UTTAR PRADESH EXIT POLL
Unlike Bihar 2015, BJP is in clear lead. But picture abhi baaki hai, BJP should cross 190 to form a government in UP. Anything less than that, they would be the principal opposition with the once sworn enemies forming not just an unholy alliance but the government.
If conservative voteshare-to-seat conversion method by C-voter turns out to be true(as it happened in Maharashtra, 2014 assembly election), BJP would be sitting in the opposition and if Axis methodology gets it right(as it happened in 2014 Lok Sabha election), BJP would be unstoppable for 2 more years.
So, it is clear that we are going to see, JDU+RJD+TMC+SP+BSP+AAP+DMK - the Great Indian Secular Alliance(GISA) in 2019 to defeat the communal forces, no matter what the outcome of this election is.
Phases Axis CSDS
Phase 1 - 73 seats 50 33-39
Phase 2 - 67 seats 21 15-21
Phase 3 - 69 seats 39 27-33
Phase 4 - 53 seats 37 27-33
Phase 5 - 52 seats 26 14-20
Phase 6 - 49 seats 34 18-24
Phase 7 - 40 seats 34 15-21
Total 251 164-176
Many experts here opine that BJP in Western UP has been grossly overestimated in Axis Poll, though they agree with BJP's performance in rest of the state and RLD, the party of Jats has grossly been underrated.
And in the diametrically opposite CSDS survey that gives 155-167, journos say that BJP has been underestimated in Eastern UP and agree with the performance in the western part of the state.
But even after desertion, BJP still projected to win 59% of the Jat votes (it was 80%+ in 2014), the community concentrated in Western UP could play spoiler for the BJP.
So, Western UP is the nail-biter that might decide if BJP gets absolute majority or a hung assembly.
UTTARAKHAND EXIT POLL
A clearcut victory for BJP here. As some commenter noted in some channel, Congress is the real winner in a sense that most contestants of BJP are ex-Congress.
GOA EXIT POLL
Whether they would cross the magic number after promotion of Parikkar has always been the question and it is answered by the polls above. AAP fails to make a dent.
MANIPUR EXIT POLL
BJP winning a North Eastern state with a comfortable majority would have been unthinkable 5 years ago. But this is what charisma of one man could do in a masochistic nation that is well-known not just for genuflecting but also worshiping Gods, politicians and cinema stars alike.
PUNJAB EXIT POLL
This is one state that might turn out to be a nail-biter on 11th of March and probably the last election to be called. If AAP wins, it could be a game-changer but if Congress wins it would only be a face-saver for the respective parties in the national politics. Ground reports suggest enormous popularity for AAP, but pragmatic experts paint a different picture and so do the polls.
Here are my predictions:
1. Uttar Pradesh - BJP
2. Uttarakhand - BJP
3. Manipur - BJP
4. Goa - BJP
5. Punjab - Congress
Final Results
UTTAR PRADESH
Seats Swing(2014)
BJP+ 325 -12
SP + Congress 54 (47 + 7) -1
BSP 19 +10
Others 3
Phases BJP SP BSP Congress
Phase 1 - 73 seats 66 3 3
Phase 2 - 67 seats 50 15 2
Phase 3 - 69 seats 55 11 2 1
Phase 4 - 53 seats 40 2 2 3
Phase 5 - 52 seats 44 3 4
Phase 6 - 49 seats 32 7 7 1
Phase 7 - 40 seats 25 6 1
PUNJAB
Congress 77
AAP+ 22
Akali+ 18
UTTARAKHAND
BJP 57
Congress 11
Others 2
GOA
Congress+ 17
BJP+ 14
GFP 3
NCP 1
MGP 3
Independent 2
BJP is forming government with the help of GFP, NCP, MGP and the two independents.
MANIPUR
Congress 28
BJP 21
Left 1
Others 10
Currently BJP is forming government with the help of "Others" and a few defectors from Congress.
Exit polls on 9th March,2016
UTTAR PRADESH EXIT POLL
Unlike Bihar 2015, BJP is in clear lead. But picture abhi baaki hai, BJP should cross 190 to form a government in UP. Anything less than that, they would be the principal opposition with the once sworn enemies forming not just an unholy alliance but the government.
If conservative voteshare-to-seat conversion method by C-voter turns out to be true(as it happened in Maharashtra, 2014 assembly election), BJP would be sitting in the opposition and if Axis methodology gets it right(as it happened in 2014 Lok Sabha election), BJP would be unstoppable for 2 more years.
So, it is clear that we are going to see, JDU+RJD+TMC+SP+BSP+AAP+DMK - the Great Indian Secular Alliance(GISA) in 2019 to defeat the communal forces, no matter what the outcome of this election is.
Phases Axis CSDS
Phase 1 - 73 seats 50 33-39
Phase 2 - 67 seats 21 15-21
Phase 3 - 69 seats 39 27-33
Phase 4 - 53 seats 37 27-33
Phase 5 - 52 seats 26 14-20
Phase 6 - 49 seats 34 18-24
Phase 7 - 40 seats 34 15-21
Total 251 164-176
Many experts here opine that BJP in Western UP has been grossly overestimated in Axis Poll, though they agree with BJP's performance in rest of the state and RLD, the party of Jats has grossly been underrated.
And in the diametrically opposite CSDS survey that gives 155-167, journos say that BJP has been underestimated in Eastern UP and agree with the performance in the western part of the state.
But even after desertion, BJP still projected to win 59% of the Jat votes (it was 80%+ in 2014), the community concentrated in Western UP could play spoiler for the BJP.
So, Western UP is the nail-biter that might decide if BJP gets absolute majority or a hung assembly.
UTTARAKHAND EXIT POLL
A clearcut victory for BJP here. As some commenter noted in some channel, Congress is the real winner in a sense that most contestants of BJP are ex-Congress.
GOA EXIT POLL
Whether they would cross the magic number after promotion of Parikkar has always been the question and it is answered by the polls above. AAP fails to make a dent.
MANIPUR EXIT POLL
BJP winning a North Eastern state with a comfortable majority would have been unthinkable 5 years ago. But this is what charisma of one man could do in a masochistic nation that is well-known not just for genuflecting but also worshiping Gods, politicians and cinema stars alike.
PUNJAB EXIT POLL
This is one state that might turn out to be a nail-biter on 11th of March and probably the last election to be called. If AAP wins, it could be a game-changer but if Congress wins it would only be a face-saver for the respective parties in the national politics. Ground reports suggest enormous popularity for AAP, but pragmatic experts paint a different picture and so do the polls.
Here are my predictions:
1. Uttar Pradesh - BJP
2. Uttarakhand - BJP
3. Manipur - BJP
4. Goa - BJP
5. Punjab - Congress
