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Post by Deleted on May 7, 2021 5:31:19 GMT
What current MLB players that we currently watch will be in the halll?
I have 4 that I think are no brainers. These are players that if they retired today would make the HOF.
Pujols
Cabrera
Trout
Kershaw.
I have 5 that are almost guaranteed to make it although it may not be first ballot. These players still have some years left so
their status could easily become no brainers.
Molina
Scherzer
Greinke
Posey
Verlander
I think there's a lot of players like Goldschmidt and Sale who will be borderline by the end of their career.
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Post by twothousandonemark on May 7, 2021 6:05:18 GMT
Pujols
Cabrera
Kershaw
Trout
Scherzer
Greinke
I think Molina & Posey get in, catchers get more of a parachute from voters don't they??... & they've 2 & 3 WS rings respectively.
Verlander probably gets in because he seems like a voter friendly horse of an ace, & his numbers are good.
With more years:
Betts
Harper
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Post by Deleted on May 7, 2021 6:39:44 GMT
I really think it depends on whatever criteria they're looking at in the future.
Scherzer has 3 Cy Young, Verlander 2 and Greinke 1, I believe. None will get 300 wins and none of them have amazing ERA+ stats.
Verlander is borderline but none of them are setting any records for complete games or being workhorses either.
It is a different world now.
It does seem catchers are underappreciated as far as the hall goes.
Betts and Harper are a good call and have a legit chance. I think Arrenado also has a chance depending on what he does going forward.
Maybe Freeman too.
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Post by klawrencio79 on May 7, 2021 14:51:13 GMT
I really think it depends on whatever criteria they're looking at in the future. Scherzer has 3 Cy Young, Verlander 2 and Greinke 1, I believe. None will get 300 wins and none of them have amazing ERA+ stats. Verlander is borderline but none of them are setting any records for complete games or being workhorses either. It is a different world now. It does seem catchers are underappreciated as far as the hall goes. Betts and Harper are a good call and have a legit chance. I think Arrenado also has a chance depending on what he does going forward. Maybe Freeman too. Verlander is a no-brainer HOFer. His ERA+ stats are heavily weighed down by his 61 in 2005, 92 in 2008 and 85 in 2014. After that, he was consistently awesome. You can't measure players of today by the same criteria as we did with players of yesteryear because those numbers, by themselves, don't exist in a vacuum. So just looking at total wins or complete games isn't really a fair assessment. Plus, we know that Hall voters have aligned their thinking somewhat to account for these things. That's how Bert Blyleven ultimately got in. We can, however, look at how those players fared when viewed against their contemporaries and in this regard, Verlander is a monster. In addition to the 3 CYAs you mentioned, he also won an MVP, led the league in wins 3 times, ERA once, WHIP 4 times, Ks 5 times, ERA+ twice, made 8 ASGs, has over 3,000 career Ks, has a WS title, an ALCS MVP. And he did all of that during a high octane offensive era. Putting it simply, he was an elite player during his peak. There is no way, NO WAY, he's not getting into the Hall, short of something salacious coming out about how he beat the shit out of Kate Upton. Same with Scherzer, he is consistently one of the top pitchers in the sport, has all sorts of black ink on the back of his card, 3 CYAs, 7 ASGs, a WS title, and he'll finish with 3,000 Ks. Greinke to me, is the most "borderline" of the 3 simply because he doesn't have the black ink that Verlander and Scherzer do, and he has had significantly less fanfare which, fair or not, is the truth. Ultimately, I do think he'll get in.
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Post by TheGoodMan19 on May 7, 2021 15:00:06 GMT
In the case of the pitchers, it will depend on how quickly the voters adopt the "new normal". When shit like "I aint voting Verlander, he never came close to 300 wins" goes away.
I hesitate to say no one will ever win 300 again. A healthy junkballer with a sympathetic staff on a consistently winning team might. But it will be rarer than hen's teeth
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Post by SportsFan19 on May 7, 2021 15:16:21 GMT
Verlander is a no-brainer HOFer. His ERA+ stats are heavily weighed down by his 61 in 2005, 92 in 2008 and 85 in 2014. He only pitched 11.1 innings in 2005, it can't really weigh him down that much, can it? Yeah, I'm being that guy again. His first 5 starts after being traded to Houston he pitched 34 innings and had a 389 ERA+. 389!
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Post by klawrencio79 on May 7, 2021 15:24:12 GMT
Verlander is a no-brainer HOFer. His ERA+ stats are heavily weighed down by his 61 in 2005, 92 in 2008 and 85 in 2014. He only pitched 11.1 innings in 2005, it can't really weigh him down that much, can it? Yeah, I'm being that guy again. His first 5 starts after being traded to Houston he pitched 34 innings and had a 389 ERA+. 389! That's how ERA+ is calculated over a career, it's a true average, not a weighted one. If you pitch 1 inning one year, and have an ERA+ of 0, and then a second year where you dominate the entire league over the course of 250 innings, to a 200 ERA+, then your career ERA+ is 100, as opposed to 199 or whatever. It's not weighted like average, ERA, etc. EDIT: I realize I am using the term "weighted" incorrectly from a true mathematical analysis, but you get the idea of what I mean here. EDIT #2: I think I'm actually wrong, it does appear that it is weighted taking into account his innings pitched. I'm not sure how that works exactly because ERA+ is measured specifically against other pitchers that year, but hey. So disregard everything I said. 
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Post by SportsFan19 on May 7, 2021 17:27:08 GMT
He only pitched 11.1 innings in 2005, it can't really weigh him down that much, can it? Yeah, I'm being that guy again. His first 5 starts after being traded to Houston he pitched 34 innings and had a 389 ERA+. 389! That's how ERA+ is calculated over a career, it's a true average, not a weighted one. If you pitch 1 inning one year, and have an ERA+ of 0, and then a second year where you dominate the entire league over the course of 250 innings, to a 200 ERA+, then your career ERA+ is 100, as opposed to 199 or whatever. It's not weighted like average, ERA, etc. EDIT: I realize I am using the term "weighted" incorrectly from a true mathematical analysis, but you get the idea of what I mean here. EDIT #2: I think I'm actually wrong, it does appear that it is weighted taking into account his innings pitched. I'm not sure how that works exactly because ERA+ is measured specifically against other pitchers that year, but hey. So disregard everything I said. That would be super weird if it wasn't weighted, and honestly it would make a career (or even any multiple season version) ERA+ (or OPS+) absolutely worthless IMO. Unless, they played full seasons every season.
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Post by klawrencio79 on May 7, 2021 17:29:46 GMT
That's how ERA+ is calculated over a career, it's a true average, not a weighted one. If you pitch 1 inning one year, and have an ERA+ of 0, and then a second year where you dominate the entire league over the course of 250 innings, to a 200 ERA+, then your career ERA+ is 100, as opposed to 199 or whatever. It's not weighted like average, ERA, etc. EDIT: I realize I am using the term "weighted" incorrectly from a true mathematical analysis, but you get the idea of what I mean here. EDIT #2: I think I'm actually wrong, it does appear that it is weighted taking into account his innings pitched. I'm not sure how that works exactly because ERA+ is measured specifically against other pitchers that year, but hey. So disregard everything I said. That would be super weird if it wasn't weighted, and honestly it would make a career (or even any multiple season version) ERA+ (or OPS+) absolutely worthless IMO. Unless, they played full seasons every season. I agree, I just honestly thought that it was but then I started poking around on bbref (you can select a group of years to see the stats for just those years and that's how I saw it) I realized I had been mistaken. Thus, I have seen the error of my ways, and I'll take a 0 for the day.
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Post by SportsFan19 on May 7, 2021 17:32:18 GMT
klawrencio79, I'm just glad you consistently use these stats. They never get mentioned in telecasts or really anywhere else I frequent.
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Post by klawrencio79 on May 7, 2021 17:40:31 GMT
klawrencio79 , I'm just glad you consistently use these stats. They never get mentioned in telecasts or really anywhere else I frequent. Yeah man. OPS+ and ERA+ are, in my humble opinion, very useful in determining how good a player was during a given year/stretch compared to his contemporaries. There not an end-all, be-all type of things (no single stat is), but it puts the other numbers in a proper context. For instance, a 3.50 ERA may be more impressive than a 2.50 ERA of another pitcher from years ago when you consider things like general offense of the era, park factor, the team around him, etc.
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Post by FrankSobotka1514 on May 7, 2021 17:52:01 GMT
Pretty much everyone mentioned before my post here should get in at some point so I’ll add some borderliners that could go either way (but most likely no):
Joey Votto
Jon Lester
Giancarlo Stanton
Manny Machado
Andrew McCutchen
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Post by klawrencio79 on May 7, 2021 18:06:32 GMT
Pretty much everyone mentioned before my post here should get in at some point so I’ll add some borderliners that could go either way (but most likely no): Joey Votto Jon Lester Giancarlo Stanton Manny Machado Andrew McCutchen If Stanton could just stay healthy, he'd be a lock. But his injuries were happening back when he was with the Marlins. As he gets older, however, those little nagging injuries quickly turn into 30 day absences. Votto is a really interesting case and, contrary to popular belief, it's not a matter of analytics. Votto isn't really a symbol for analytics at all, he's just a guy who is incredible at getting on base. Like, one of the best ever. He's on track to fall short of a sub-.300 average, for whatever that is worth, but if go by "career peak," which is something I find useful, here are Votto's stats for his 11 years from 2008 - 2018: .311/.428/.529, 265 HR, 880 RBI, 919 runs, 156 OPS+ (which, as we now know, is weighted!). He's 37 years old and his best days are clearly behind him. He hasn't done much across 47 career postseason PAs. He's sitting at 1,932 hits, an even 300 HRs, 983 RBI. He has 2 years left on his contract after this year and a $20m team option for 2024 (which I imagine will not get picked up). So in years, he can probably land in the 2,250/2,300 career hits range, 1,100 RBI. He has led the league in OBP 7 times, won an MVP, has made 6 ASGs, and it's not like he just walks and pokes singles over the middle infield; his career slugging is .516. Gun to my head, I'm not really sure whether he'll get in or not. He has certain accolades and his peak was terrific but his career line will end up basically right alongside wife-beater Brian Giles who had a very nice career, but that's about it. Also, in 2019, in his 13th career year, it was the first time Votto had popped up 1B. Take that, Brian Giles!
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Post by TheGoodMan19 on May 7, 2021 19:07:34 GMT
Pretty much everyone mentioned before my post here should get in at some point so I’ll add some borderliners that could go either way (but most likely no): Joey Votto Jon Lester Giancarlo Stanton Manny Machado Andrew McCutchen By a lot of the statistical yardsticks, Votto is very borderline. I'd think 2000 hits is an absolute must.
Same with JL, he needs to get to 200 wins. He might get the Mussina argument, "He had good stats because he played on good teams"
Stanton and Machado have a lot of baseball left in them
McCutchen, nah
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Post by SportsFan19 on May 7, 2021 19:14:12 GMT
Votto's 37 years old and his best days are clearly behind him. He hasn't done much across 47 career postseason PAs. He's sitting at 1,932 hits, an even 300 HRs, 983 RBI. He has 2 years left on his contract after this year and a $20m team option for 2024 (which I imagine will not get picked up). So in years, he can probably land in the 2,250/2,300 career hits range, 1,100 RBI. He has led the league in OBP 7 times, won an MVP, has made 6 ASGs, and it's not like he just walks and pokes singles over the middle infield; his career slugging is .516. Yeah, all those walks walks (possibly) hurt his counting totals, but (probably) help his percentages. Votto's the most extreme case of this.
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Post by twothousandonemark on May 8, 2021 1:00:23 GMT
Votto had legit HOF seasons, yet he's in a Joe Mauer camp for me. Both close no's.
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Post by FrankSobotka1514 on May 8, 2021 1:12:55 GMT
Votto had legit HOF seasons, yet he's in a Joe Mauer camp for me. Both close no's. I think Mauer gets graded on a curve for being a catcher. To me he’s a yes. Votto to me is a no but some stat nerds want to vote him in, I won’t get into too much of a snit. |
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Post by twothousandonemark on May 8, 2021 1:14:22 GMT
Votto had legit HOF seasons, yet he's in a Joe Mauer camp for me. Both close no's. I think Mauer gets graded on a curve for being a catcher. To me he’s a yes. Votto to me is a no but some stat nerds want to vote him in, I won’t get into too much of a snit. Yeah, I've no horse in either field. If they get in, congrats I guess. If they don't, meh.
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Post by tristramshandy on May 8, 2021 1:35:23 GMT
In the case of the pitchers, it will depend on how quickly the voters adopt the "new normal". When shit like "I aint voting Verlander, he never came close to 300 wins" goes away. I hesitate to say no one will ever win 300 again. A healthy junkballer with a sympathetic staff on a consistently winning team might. But it will be rarer than hen's teeth After Lester, Kershaw, and Scherzer, it's hard to find the guys who will get to 200 wins, let alone 300. Are we betting on Bumgarner (31 - - 123 wins)? Strasburg (32-112)? Sale (32-109)? If Gerrit Cole won 15 per year for the next 7 years, he gets there (he's 30 with 105 wins). The most wins of any pitcher still in their 20s is 61 by Aaron Nola (28) and Michael Wacha (29). Don Sutton had 139 wins before he turned 30; only nine active pitchers have that many right now.
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Post by TheGoodMan19 on May 8, 2021 2:07:34 GMT
In the case of the pitchers, it will depend on how quickly the voters adopt the "new normal". When shit like "I aint voting Verlander, he never came close to 300 wins" goes away. I hesitate to say no one will ever win 300 again. A healthy junkballer with a sympathetic staff on a consistently winning team might. But it will be rarer than hen's teeth After Lester, Kershaw, and Scherzer, it's hard to find the guys who will get to 200 wins, let alone 300. Are we betting on Bumgarner (31 - - 123 wins)? Strasburg (32-112)? Sale (32-109)? If Gerrit Cole won 15 per year for the next 7 years, he gets there (he's 30 with 105 wins). The most wins of any pitcher still in their 20s is 61 by Aaron Nola (28) and Michael Wacha (29). Don Sutton had 139 wins before he turned 30; only nine active pitchers have that many right now. MLB has been wanting to make rule changes to make the starters important again. Bunch of Mickey Mouse stuff so far that won't happen. And I can't see any of it happening. The UCL/Tommy John stuff is the death of the 36 start, 350 IP starter. No one will overuse a starter and risk UCL injury. how would the Red Sox be now with Chris Sale once every five days instead of Martin Perez? Not sure what baseball can do, you can't mandate a starting pitcher to stay in a game for seven innings.
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