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Post by Aj_June on Jun 9, 2018 20:55:25 GMT
Overconfidence bias is one of the most widespread and pertinent bias that people suffer from according to research in the field of behavioural finance. For example, when business owners were asked if they would identify themselves in top 10% ethically then more than 50% people said yes. Similarly, investors are usually very confident of their ability to identify under-priced investments but the research shows that over the long time horizon an average investor does not make any risk adjusted profits. I personally believe that people not just in field of business suffer from overconfidence bias but a vast majority of people across all disciplines of life greatly suffer from overconfidence bias. People usually rate their capability much higher than it may actually be. Similarly, people usually think that they have understood things about religion, politics, society and become too dismissive of point of views that go contrary to their biases. Many times certain beliefs are so strong among us that we are not aware of our biases. It just doesn't occur to us that things that be believe may not be correct.
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Post by mslo79 on Jun 9, 2018 22:10:29 GMT
Hell, look at it this way... would anyone running a business want to portray themselves as anything but solid in that regard? ; that's why I sort of assume they will overestimate themselves whether they actually think that way or not as they don't want to look bad. so I am definitely not surprised to see overconfidence here with many. but obviously... when it comes to top 10%, it's obvious damn near everyone won't be THAT high, because, well, it's the top 10%, so the other 90% are lower than that. but I guess one could just say 'no, I am probably average or so' (if they got a bit of humility etc) as doing that, there is a good chance they would be correct since most got to be somewhere around average range, one way or the other a bit. but it seems many seem to think 'average' is a bad thing when it comes to general people but the obvious truth is, most people are average with maybe a bit either way of that before you start getting into the lower and upper echelons. but with that said... it's possible generally average people could be at least a bit above average in some areas and also the reverse being true in that they might be below average even though overall they are still a average person. hell, I would not be surprised if there are plenty of generally shady people out there who seem themselves as 'good people' (or a decent enough person) when they are probably worse than most people. Well I think when it comes to religion, if someone believes their religion to be the truth, which I do (I am Catholic and it's the religion that Jesus Christ, who is God, started with Peter(the first pope) and then it went through the generations til today), then naturally things that go contrary to it on morals etc ill be against. basically that's sort of ones core thing and one tries to form ones general life around that as best one can etc. so while I guess one could say I am biased there, I think once one believes they have found the truth then naturally they won't want to deviate from that. but as far as politics/society etc etc... I don't consider myself some sort of expert at all but on certain things I know to be true, based around my religion, I generally stick with that as my foundation. just some random thoughts  |
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Post by Terrapin Station on Jun 9, 2018 22:14:34 GMT
Top 10% ethically? What would that even mean?
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Post by lowtacks86 on Jun 9, 2018 22:17:37 GMT
Sounds kind of like the Dunning Krueger effect
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Post by Aj_June on Jun 9, 2018 22:21:42 GMT
Hell, look at it this way... would anyone running a business want to portray themselves as anything but solid in that regard? ; that's why I sort of assume they will overestimate themselves whether they actually think that way or not as they don't want to look bad. It's not just limited to business owners. People overrate their ability/understanding in many different disciplines of life. In another study it was found that 91% people believe that they can drive better than the 50th percentile (which cannot happen). And it's not only about make yourself feel better situations. People have overconfidence bias to tier detriment. It is possibly the most widespread bias among human beings. |
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Post by Aj_June on Jun 9, 2018 22:22:38 GMT
Sounds kind of like the Dunning Krueger effect Yes, but on a smaller scale than that and something which permeates among bigger percentage of human population. |
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Lugh
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Post by Lugh on Jun 9, 2018 22:44:53 GMT
Was Cash Is Supreme involved in this survey?
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Post by mslo79 on Jun 10, 2018 0:31:59 GMT
Aj_JuneYeah, I see what you mean. as for myself on that driving issue... I honestly don't know where I would be but it's pretty safe for me to claim I drive better than some people overall as there are some pretty bad drivers out there. but as far as how many, it's hard to say. I would 'like' to think I am on the better half but even that I can't really say for sure as it would be difficult to measure these things. but I guess if one has not been any accidents or does not have too many speeding tickets etc you would think they would be at least okay-ish(say average-ish) at driving (or just good at not getting caught ). but let just say I am wrong and the majority are better drivers than myself, I would have to assume I would be on the better half of the bottom half because if not that would put me basically worse than something like 7-8 out of 10 drivers. but another thing... I would assume younger drivers tend to be overall worse on average than older ones (but not too old because after a certain point I imagine with age it starts to have a detrimental effect on their reaction time etc (basically they become worse drivers than when they where a bit younger as their minds are a bit slower etc)) because they tend to be more aggressive from what I can tell. just looking at myself... I can tell I have became calmer in general in that area as I got a bit of age on me vs back when I was younger as I used to be a bit more aggressive when driving. so if that's any rough indication of people, that does seem to suggest my comment on the younger drivers are on average worse than ones who are a bit older is accurate. just some thoughts
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