Is Black Adam A Flop?

The Dwayne Johnson superhero vehicle stands at $250 million in worldwide box office after two weekends in release, and whether it can reach the $500 million mark depends on how it holds in the next week before Black Panther: Wakanda Forever hits theaters, and how it holds up after that Marvel Studios sequel sucks the oxygen out of the marketplace for most other films.

The best case scenario at this point is a roughly $520 million finish for Black Adam, if it enjoys stronger than typical holds in the next month-plus. More likely, however, is a final cume in the $375-425 million range, with $400 million right in the center and where I expect the film to land (give or take a few million bucks).

I recently explained one of the problems that I feel contributed to Black Adam’s struggle to be more than another also-ran superhero property — namely, relying on marketing and publicity tours that focused on the idea this movie is “for the fans” and hiding/minimizing the use of Superman in trailers and photos for the film. These problems were enhanced by the fact Black Adam’s budget and marketing expenses require it to gross in the $600+ million range to turn a profit at the box office.

These are lessons WBD needs to learn from quickly as they prepare to ramp up DCEU/DCU productions in hopes of revitalizing the stable of characters and generating critical, audience, and box office success on par with Marvel Studio’s immensely successful MCU. You can read my explanation here of what it’ll take to get Henry Cavill’s recently revived Superman sequel for just such a successful outcome.

I’m sure Black Adam will wind up profitable once home entertainment sales and rentals are calculated and the studio rakes in additional revenue for streaming, cable, and broadcast television, not to mention other merchandising for the film.

Likewise, all of this will surely be enough to convince the studio the Black Adam character was introduced well enough to warrant his appearance in a Shazam! sequel and probable fight/team-up involving Superman — be it a standalone Black Adam sequel, a Superman sequel, or a Shazam! sequel (I’d suggest the latter as by far the best way to maximize the storytelling and financial potential, to get Shazam and Superman interacting together and then teaming up to defeat Black Adam).

But these massive investments of hundreds of millions of dollars and the future of major branded IP cannot be treated as “meh, eventually it should turn some profit on home entertainment and merchandising” if the goal is to create blockbuster franchises capable of performing on par with Marvel Studios.

If a movie is going to play at the $500 million range, it needs to keep the budget low enough that $500 million allows it to make at least a small profit. Otherwise, if the budgets are going to be in the $200 million range with at least half that much again in marketing costs, then the studio better have a strong plan to ensure it can gross at least $600+ million to cover its costs, and better yet it better play north of $700+ million to look like a real winner.

Instead, Black Adam will likely be the fifth DCEU/DCU shared universe film in a row to gross $500 million or less at the box office — in fact, the other four grossed less than $400 million apiece, so if Black Adam winds up on the lower end of my projections the situation looks even more painful for WBD. This is, after all, the first DC superhero movie in several years to release when theatrical attendance is returning to pre-pandemic levels and the film wasn’t day-and-date on HBO Max. So Black Adam’s box office barely beating the performance of the previous four movies is not a good sign.

No good will come of pretending otherwise, or trying to convince us that a $400-500 million outcome for Black Adam is some sort of big victory. I’m not talking about the quality of the film or anyone’s personal enjoyment of it, those are separate considerations and you can feel however you feel about the movie without those feelings affecting how we honestly, accurately discuss the financial side of things.

What matters here is that a studio with new leadership who are selling the idea they plan to jumpstart the DC properties again with a new plan that can achieve amazing success, and who have pointedly cancelled a bunch of projects and stated their belief that DC movies can and must do a lot better at the box office and with critics, cannot frame the performance of Black Adam as their idea of a successful franchise launch.

That’s not to say they need to come out publicly calling it a failure, especially since in plenty of ways it’s far from a failure — it has excited the fanbase, it’s one of the most diverse superhero movies in a long time, it brought back Superman which is a pretty big deal, and while it’s not setting the box office on fire it will eventually turn a profit and introduced the character and franchise in a way that lets them appear again to greater success in the future. And of course, Dwayne Johnson is one of the biggest box office stars in the world and he’s now firmly established as a DCEU/DCU character.

Instead, I think the studio needs to recognize what did and didn’t work, especially with the marketing and promotion of the film, and be sure to correct those mistakes going forward. It’s also important to be able to look at the film and see how certain things surely would’ve increased its visibility and generated superior press talking points and narratives about the film and its place in the future of the DCEU/DCU.

For example, it probably would’ve benefited from Cavill appearing in a few more scenes — maybe a couple as Clark Kent at work, seeing the news about Black Adam but being too busy with another crisis to intervene, and later as Superman talking briefly to Hawkman or Doctor Fate while they assure him the Justice Society can handle the problem, before his final appearance telling Black Adam they need to talk. This would’ve allowed the trailers to include footage of Superman and make his return a major part of the conversation for weeks leading up to release.

I also think the film could’ve benefited from a bit more sense of humor and letting Johnson show off more of his famous charisma (which includes an excellent sense of humor). It’s possible to respect what the film did and how much of it worked, while still noting where it could’ve improved its chances of being the sort of film it clearly wanted to be, which I believe would’ve boosted its performance and reputation.

The DCEU/DCU is once again course correcting, so the studio needs to be sure they aren’t afraid to honestly assess what did and didn’t work with their films, including Black Adam, and what to do about it. That requires admitting some hard truths at times, as well as being able to see what went right and what can work even better and improved upon. If they do so, then WBD will be on their way to their goal of getting their DC properties on solid cinematic footing again. If not, this will just be the latest in a long line of false restarts that lead to more leadership changes in the near future.