Could Russia ever be realistically conquered at all

Oct 15, 2018 17:40:36 GMT vegalyra said:

Don't forget about WW1. The Russians actually negotiated a ceasefire/surrender in that instance. I doubt that the combined German/Austro-Hungarian/Ottoman forces would have been able to take out Russia but for the Russian Revolution though.

However, if the Japanese had been willing to commit to a war against Russia during WW2 and had NOT attacked the USA and British possessions in the Pacific, I think a second front would have caused a general Russian collapse. The Germans were already on the doorstep of Moscow in late '41 so multiple Japanese divisions landing near Vladivostok or attacking through Manchukuo would have caused the Russian forces to divide. Even if the Japanese didn't make much headway a second front could have been just enough to divert enough manpower that the Germans could have taken Moscow. This was the one time in history I believe that Russia could have been conquered. 

I didn't include WWI because the Germans didn't invade Russia.

In the first year of the WWII invasion the Soviet Union did a phenomenal job of moving their factories east of the Urals. With new factories also built there that became the heart of their industrial power and would need to be destroyed in order to stop their ability to wage war.

The hypotheticals get pretty complicated. Before the war Japan was getting 80% of its oil from the US. Their occupation of French Indochina triggered the embargo. I think it's safe to assume they would get the same response with an attack on Vladivostok. Then they would find themselves at war against the Soviet Union with a critical shortage of their strategic oil reserves. Certainly the Soviets would be in no position to retake their territory until much later. The Japanese solution to the embargo was to capture Brunei. But an attack on a British protectorate could trigger US intervention.

A large portion of the Japanese army was already tied down in China. Even if they captured all Soviet far eastern territory, that's less than 10% of total Soviet production. And that's where it ends because it's unlikely the Japanese could supply a major army across the 4,000 miles from Vladivostok to the Urals using only one rail line. A line which used Soviet gauge instead of the standard European gauge used by Japan. Germany faced the same problem and couldn't fully supply an army group 1500 miles from Germany to Stalingrad. The Germans also didn't have enough troops to man the line and so had to use Hungarians, Romanians and Italians which later cost them when the Soviets crushed those troops and cut off Stalingrad. I don't know how the Germans could possibly have driven another thousand miles further east from the Volga to the Urals.

Soviet loss of the far east would mean no Siberian reinforcements to save Moscow in 1941. Moscow's biggest military importance was as a rail hub. Loss of the city would mean the inability to sustain forces north to Murmansk possibly shutting off that Lend-Lease route. But there would still be a route through Iran and a smaller one on the northern Siberian coast. Leningrad may have also fallen soon afterwards. But all this would just be more ground to occupy and longer supply lines to be maintained. It does nothing to curtail Soviet production capability.

I think the Russians could have survived long enough for their factories to start producing in larger numbers. By 1945 Germany faced a manpower shortage. A Japanese attack would mean the war might have lasted longer but in the end the results would be the same. Of course the US would need to be involved at some point in order to combine with the British to create an army large enough to sweep in from the south and the west.

Sorry for the lengthy reply. It didn't seem that long at first.

Oct 15, 2018 17:40:36 GMT vegalyra said:

Don't forget about WW1. The Russians actually negotiated a ceasefire/surrender in that instance. I doubt that the combined German/Austro-Hungarian/Ottoman forces would have been able to take out Russia but for the Russian Revolution though.

However, if the Japanese had been willing to commit to a war against Russia during WW2 and had NOT attacked the USA and British possessions in the Pacific, I think a second front would have caused a general Russian collapse. The Germans were already on the doorstep of Moscow in late '41 so multiple Japanese divisions landing near Vladivostok or attacking through Manchukuo would have caused the Russian forces to divide. Even if the Japanese didn't make much headway a second front could have been just enough to divert enough manpower that the Germans could have taken Moscow. This was the one time in history I believe that Russia could have been conquered. 

I didn't include WWI because the Germans didn't invade Russia.