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Post by Aj_June on Apr 14, 2019 15:01:12 GMT
Game Of Thrones - Who Will Rule Westeros?Bran Stark - 5/6 (favourite) Sansa Stark - 5/1 ( You do get $5 return (Plus original Stake) for a $1 bet) Jon Snow - 11/2 Petyr Baelish - 8/1 (4th fav! Vegas has hope) Any child of Jon or Dany - 9/1 Night King - 10/1 Tyrion - 10/1 Arya 16/1 Cersei 25/1 (the odds seem to be way off here. It should be around 8 or 9).
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Post by Aj_June on Apr 14, 2019 15:27:33 GMT
All of Daenerys dragons to be dead at end of Season 8 (including Viserion)
Yes - 4/9 (greater chances that all of them die)
No - 8/5
I don't understand this bet. Is the dragon that Night King is riding considered dead already?
Game Of Thrones - Character to kill the Night King
Jon - 5/4
Arya - 7/4
Night King stays alive - 7/2
Bran Stark - 5/1
Dany - 5/1
Jaime 8/1
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Marendil
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@marendil
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Post by Marendil on Apr 14, 2019 16:26:30 GMT
Game Of Thrones - Who Will Rule Westeros?Bran Stark - 5/6 (favourite) Sansa Stark - 5/1 ( You do get $5 return (Plus original Stake) for a $1 bet) Jon Snow - 11/2 Petyr Baelish - 8/1 (4th fav! Vegas has hope) Any child of Jon or Dany - 9/1 Night King - 10/1 Tyrion - 10/1 Arya 16/1 Cersei 25/1 (the odds seem to be way off here. It should be around 8 or 9). Why is Bran such a huge favorite? I asked this weeks ago and no answer.
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Post by Aj_June on Apr 14, 2019 17:03:37 GMT
Game Of Thrones - Who Will Rule Westeros?Bran Stark - 5/6 (favourite) Why is Bran such a huge favorite? I asked this weeks ago and no answer. Very surprising, indeed. He is a bigger favourite than the field. And even he said that he can't be a ruler of any place as he is physically challenged. And what is even bigger question is how would they even decide who rules Westeros? I mean Bran could become a known three eyed raven and some might think he is the most powerful person and yet formal ruler could be someone else. Bookmakers though know what they are doing and research everything well. Perhaps, it all ends in them earning more money.
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Post by Leo of Red Keep on Apr 14, 2019 17:07:46 GMT
Why is Bran such a huge favorite? I asked this weeks ago and no answer. Very surprising, indeed. He is a bigger favourite than the field. And even he said that he can't be a ruler of any place as he is physically challenged. And what is even bigger question is how would they even decide who rules Westeros? I mean Bran could become a known three eyed raven and some might think he is the most powerful person and yet formal ruler could be someone else. Bookmakers though know what they are doing and research everything well. Perhaps, it all ends in them earning more money. I suppose most of these people barely understand their own language and do not know what "ruling" means. There is little point analysing stupidity.
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Post by Aj_June on Apr 14, 2019 17:17:25 GMT
Very surprising, indeed. He is a bigger favourite than the field. And even he said that he can't be a ruler of any place as he is physically challenged. And what is even bigger question is how would they even decide who rules Westeros? I mean Bran could become a known three eyed raven and some might think he is the most powerful person and yet formal ruler could be someone else. Bookmakers though know what they are doing and research everything well. Perhaps, it all ends in them earning more money. I suppose most of these people barely understand their own language and do not know what "ruling" means. There is little point analysing stupidity. IT certainly doesn't seem a positive look for you given this bet: Game Of Thrones - Season 8 - To Die Cersei - 1/50 (huge fav) Euron - 1/33 Jorah - 1/7 Jorah Mormont 1/7 Lord Varys 1 /12 Jaime Lannister 2/9 Daenerys Targaryen 2/9 Melisandre 2/9 The Hound 1/3 Brienne of Tarth 1 /1 Bronn of the Blackwater 11/10 Sansa Stark 1 Jon Snow 5/4 Arya Stark 5/4 Gendry 2/1 Bran Stark 2/1 Although I see Cersei's odds as insanely stupid and perhaps a trap. Some of these bets will have subjective interpretation. And bookmakers are expert in such situations.
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Marendil
Sophomore
@marendil
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Post by Marendil on Apr 14, 2019 17:18:42 GMT
Why is Bran such a huge favorite? I asked this weeks ago and no answer. Very surprising, indeed. He is a bigger favourite than the field. And even he said that he can't be a ruler of any place as he is physically challenged. And what is even bigger question is how would they even decide who rules Westeros? I mean Bran could become a known three eyed raven and some might think he is the most powerful person and yet formal ruler could be someone else. Bookmakers though know what they are doing and research everything well. Perhaps, it all ends in them earning more money. The house makes most of their money on idiots. The odds on Bran could be the result of Vegas not knowing anything but some one (or more) placing big money on Bran forcing bookmakers to lower his payout so they don't end up taking a bath. Or it could be Vegas does know something, after all hundreds if not thousands of people know this answer, considering actors, production crew, people involved in the writing process down to copy editors as well as executives and any one someone previous could have told.
Bran makes so little sense you wonder if the showrunners filmed something false as they sometimes do these days and that's what got out.
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Post by Leo of Red Keep on Apr 14, 2019 17:23:18 GMT
I suppose most of these people barely understand their own language and do not know what "ruling" means. There is little point analysing stupidity. IT certainly doesn't seem a positive look for you given this bet: Game Of Thrones - Season 8 - To Die Cersei - 1/50 (huge fav) Euron - 1/33 Jorah - 1/7 Jorah Mormont 1/7 Lord Varys 1 /12 Jaime Lannister 2/9 Daenerys Targaryen 2/9 Melisandre 2/9 The Hound 1/3 Brienne of Tarth 1 /1 Bronn of the Blackwater 11/10 Sansa Stark 1 Jon Snow 5/4 1 Arya Stark 5/4 Gendry 2/1 Bran Stark 2/2 Although I see Cersei's odds as insanely stupid and perhaps a trap. Some of these bets will have subjective interpretation. And bookmakers are expert in such situations. I don't understand the figures, I have no idea how odds work. Never cared to find out. Should I give any weight to the opinion of idiots? They are the kind who would have thought Einstein was mad. If anything, their expectations can be inverted following the plausible logic that the author is exactly trying to achieve that: defeat expectations. What the masses see coming is a trap the author has laid and the opposite would occur.
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Post by Leo of Red Keep on Apr 14, 2019 17:28:33 GMT
Very surprising, indeed. He is a bigger favourite than the field. And even he said that he can't be a ruler of any place as he is physically challenged. And what is even bigger question is how would they even decide who rules Westeros? I mean Bran could become a known three eyed raven and some might think he is the most powerful person and yet formal ruler could be someone else. Bookmakers though know what they are doing and research everything well. Perhaps, it all ends in them earning more money. The house makes most of their money on idiots. The odds on Bran could be the result of Vegas not knowing anything but some one (or more) placing big money on Bran forcing bookmakers to lower his payout so they don't end up taking a bath. Or it could be Vegas does know something, after all hundreds if not thousands of people know this answer, considering actors, production crew, people involved in the writing process down to copy editors as well as executives and any one someone previous could have told.
Bran makes so little sense you wonder if the showrunners filmed something false as they sometimes do these days and that's what got out.
The other possible trick is that of someone betting on something to get a flock to follow and then pull back. This happens on the stock market. I suppose some bookmaker publishing peculiar looking odds could be such a trick, the same way sometime a high price gives a product an otherwise unfounded reputation of quality. Once again, I understand nothing of bets, but I know idiots.
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Post by Leo of Red Keep on Apr 14, 2019 17:32:32 GMT
The house makes most of their money on idiots. The odds on Bran could be the result of Vegas not knowing anything but some one (or more) placing big money on Bran forcing bookmakers to lower his payout so they don't end up taking a bath. Or it could be Vegas does know something, after all hundreds if not thousands of people know this answer, considering actors, production crew, people involved in the writing process down to copy editors as well as executives and any one someone previous could have told.
Bran makes so little sense you wonder if the showrunners filmed something false as they sometimes do these days and that's what got out.
The other possible trick is that of someone betting on something to get a flock to follow and then pull back. This happens on the stock market. I suppose some bookmaker publishing peculiar looking odds could be such a trick, the same way sometime a high price gives a product an otherwise unfounded reputation of quality. Once again, I understand nothing of bets, but I know idiots. In other words, if I run the casino, I want my customers to lose their bets. I pick something I think is unlikely to happen and make the odds look like I know something to get fools to bet on it.
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Marendil
Sophomore
@marendil
Posts: 750
Likes: 301
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Post by Marendil on Apr 14, 2019 18:07:58 GMT
IT certainly doesn't seem a positive look for you given this bet: Game Of Thrones - Season 8 - To Die Cersei - 1/50 (huge fav) Euron - 1/33 Jorah - 1/7 Jorah Mormont 1/7 Lord Varys 1 /12 Jaime Lannister 2/9 Daenerys Targaryen 2/9 Melisandre 2/9 The Hound 1/3 Brienne of Tarth 1 /1 Bronn of the Blackwater 11/10 Sansa Stark 1 Jon Snow 5/4 1 Arya Stark 5/4 Gendry 2/1 Bran Stark 2/2 Although I see Cersei's odds as insanely stupid and perhaps a trap. Some of these bets will have subjective interpretation. And bookmakers are expert in such situations. I don't understand the figures, I have no idea how odds work. Never cared to find out. Should I give any weight to the opinion of idiots? They are the kind who would have thought Einstein was mad. If anything, their expectations can be inverted following the plausible logic that the author is exactly trying to achieve that: defeat expectations. What the masses see coming is a trap the author has laid and the opposite would occur. The number on the left is what you win for every increment on the right, plus you get your own original wager back. It looks like the odds on Bran here are a typo, 2/2 is the same as 1/1.
This is a terrible board, only Gendry pays out more than you risk, not worth it at all. Cersei, Euron and Bronn are getting 'sure thing' odds, for Cersei you'd have to bet $100 to win $2, though you'd get the original $100 back too.
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Post by Aj_June on Apr 14, 2019 18:10:07 GMT
I don't understand the figures, I have no idea how odds work. Never cared to find out. Should I give any weight to the opinion of idiots? They are the kind who would have thought Einstein was mad. If anything, their expectations can be inverted following the plausible logic that the author is exactly trying to achieve that: defeat expectations. What the masses see coming is a trap the author has laid and the opposite would occur. The number on the left is what you win for every increment on the right, plus you get your own original wager back. It looks like the odds on Bran here are a typo, 2/2 is the same as 1/1.
This is a terrible board, only Gendry pays out more than you risk, not worth it at all. Cersei, Euron and Bronn are getting 'sure thing' odds, for Cersei you'd have to bet $100 to win $2, though you'd get back the original $100 back too.
It was a typo on Bran. His odds are 2/1
Think some of the sites allow you to lay the bets as well. In that case you win fortune on Cersei if you bet for her to survive.
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Marendil
Sophomore
@marendil
Posts: 750
Likes: 301
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Post by Marendil on Apr 14, 2019 18:46:49 GMT
The number on the left is what you win for every increment on the right, plus you get your own original wager back. It looks like the odds on Bran here are a typo, 2/2 is the same as 1/1.
This is a terrible board, only Gendry pays out more than you risk, not worth it at all. Cersei, Euron and Bronn are getting 'sure thing' odds, for Cersei you'd have to bet $100 to win $2, though you'd get back the original $100 back too.
It was a typo on Bran. His odds are 2/1
Think some of the sites allow you to lay the bets as well. In that case you win fortune on Cersei if you bet for her to survive.
Note: I misread Bronn as 1/10 as opposed to 11/10 thus my including him with Cersei and Euron.
I doubt they'd lay (risk more than they can win) these kinds of odds to let anyone lay these bets (wager against the bet in this case that they don't die). They'd have to pay out 50:1 or 33:1 on Cersei or Euron and unless they know something they'd be fools to offer that, and they're in the business of making money and offered it the other way so I kinda doubt it (almost no one--outside bookies--ever lays bets or odds anyway).
The other bet for the Throne I would imagine they'd let you lay--because you'd have to lay the odds (risk more than you can win) on everyone but Bran.
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Marendil
Sophomore
@marendil
Posts: 750
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Post by Marendil on Apr 14, 2019 19:01:51 GMT
The other possible trick is that of someone betting on something to get a flock to follow and then pull back. This happens on the stock market. I suppose some bookmaker publishing peculiar looking odds could be such a trick, the same way sometime a high price gives a product an otherwise unfounded reputation of quality. Once again, I understand nothing of bets, but I know idiots. In other words, if I run the casino, I want my customers to lose their bets. I pick something I think is unlikely to happen and make the odds look like I know something to get fools to bet on it. This would just lower the payout, discouraging people from betting it. You might get a few fools to bet thinking they're onto a 'sure thing' but those special idiots are usually out of money in short order anyway.
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