Breakdown on most probable Kentucky Derby starters
Apr 29, 2019 23:01:53 GMT
nutsberryfarm 🏜 likes this
Post by drystyx on Apr 29, 2019 23:01:53 GMT
It appears the field will emerge from these 22 who are aimed that direction at present.
My take on the picks is nothing special. I'm terrible at picking the Derby, mostly because the Derby isn't class past performance, but "class determiner". It determines who is the class most years. This year looks no different. That's how during all those years when favorites never won, we knew it was honest, and during the years when nothing but low prices did well, we knew there was mob interference.
Most Kentucky Derby winners you may as well pick your favorite name. The race doesn't follow "class". It "determines class".
GAME WINNER-Probable favorite, and deserves to be so, despite running second to Roadster. That will likely put Roadster at a close second choice. Baffert is training 3 here who will probably be among the five with the lowest odds. And it's hard to dispute, not only on form, but because trainers enter multiple runners in the same race only because the trainer believes they are equally matched, and the form on these three is outstanding. Game Winner is the class, and has run against class his entire career.
The dosage on Game Winner is 2.33, and for newbies, that means the pedigree is very good. The lower the number, the better the pedigree is seen as being. For many years, no derby winner had a dosage of over 4.00, and 3.00 was seen as very high. We do see some sprint bloodlines in Mr. Prospector twice, but both are five generations back, giving him a great mix of speed and stamina.
Handicapper take: Hard to avoid. The long campaign is the only reason to see fault. Could have run his entire gamut, in other words, could have "shot his wad" long term. The class makes him a handicapper 4-1 favorite in a field of 20.
My take: I'm using him on top in some trifectas, maybe second in a few, but almost never in third, on the basis that if he "shot his long term wad" he won't finish third, and otherwise will be in the top two. I'm concerned that Baffert has to enter three runners. If all three run first, second, and third, there's undeniably either black magic or crooked race fixing from the mob who would clean up if that happens. Since the mob doesn't "share" winnings with handicappers, I have to take a stance against at 4-1.
ROADSTER-lightly raced, undefeated Baffert runner who beat Game Winner. His 2.60 dosage is not deserved, as his pedigree is sprint based, beginning with six furlong expert Mr. Prospector.
Handicapper take: Almost every handicapper will look at the "bounce" probability for Roadster to run a poor race. Of course, he may be so healthy that he is still at his peak. He's really only faced one proven class runner in Game Winner, who most believe was not being pushed. Odds should be 5-1 at best.
My take: I certainly have to go against the continued improvement. Sprint bloodlines on what looks to be a deep and natural surface after the rains, make this one I will avoid altogether. He has to beat me.
IMPROBABLE-Last of the Baffert trio, the one he seems to be sneaking in, comes off two second place finishes in Arkansas, which shows class. His 4.23 dosage is high, and probably deserved, despite some noble ones in his pedigree. The mix doesn't match with the runners who have better dosage numbers.
Handicapper take: Looks to be primed for good effort, and Baffert thinks he's as good as the other two. Handicappers will make him about 8-1 and fourth choice or so.
My take: While his pedigree includes a few giants, the dosage is correct, and he's one I'm tossing out except in a few trifectas.
OMAHA BEACH beat Improbable in Arkansas. His dosage of 2.69 is not deserved, and doesn't indicate his sprint pedigree.
Handicapper take: Has been phenomenal, and looks awesome when you see him run. Handicappers will wonder if Improbable, who ran second to him, was that good any way, and he should be about 7-1 at third choice. He already is the "wise guy's pick".
My take: Trainer Mandella, an also ran in most derbies, is aided by co owner Eliot Walden, one of the sharpest horsemen around. That could make a difference. However, his form looks too good, and horse racing is not favorable to the hare in the hare-tortoise game. Like Game Winner, I will use him on top in a few trifectas, but not second or third. And "wise guy's picks" almost never do any good.
TACITIUS has incredible bloodlines and a dosage of 1.60, with major influence by Sir Ivor. He also has Mott, one of the greatest trainers ever.
Handicapper take: His Aqueduct win has to be taken seriously, as does everything else. In the eighties and nineties, the handicappers used to argue about who the best upcoming trainer was between Mott and McGaughey. Purists loved Mott. He's lost a few derbies, and learned from them. Have to expect him to be close to fourth or fifth choice at 8-1.
My take: The only thing I hate is that Mott also considers the poorly bred Country House. If he thinks Country House is equal to Tacitius, then Tacitius isn't as good as I think, and Country House is better than I think, but that puts them in the middle. I still think he is the one to beat, but if Mott doesn't scratch out Country House, I won't make any straight bets on Tacitus. 8-1 is a steal on him, though.
COUNTRY HOUSE is Mott's second runner. The 2.69 dosage is lower than it should be. He ran third at Arkansas in the big race with Omaha Beach and Improbable. Mott obviously expects improvement.
Handicapper take: Hard to endorse this one. Should be 30-1
My take: Like I said, if Mott enters both runners, I'll expect this one to be better than his odds indicate, so I'll put him on the bottom of exotic bets, but that's all.
VEKOMA won the Blue Grass. Keeneland has always been where the very best run, the cream of the cream of the crop, the undeniable best horses, colts, fillies, mares, geldings. The dosage of 2.56 is not well deserved. A bit too much sprint in the pedigree for me.
However, the Bluegrass has not been up to par as it used to be. Weaker fields. Before the Bluegrass was run, it was obviously a weak field to handicappers. Vekoma was up front early, and all day long at Keeneland, however they were placed in the backstretch was about equal to how they ended up. There was very little passing in the stretch. Got to figure this one to be 15-1
My take: 15-1 is a huge underlay, and this one is a total pretender in my view. He'll have to do a Missouri on me and "show me" he can win the derby. Maybe he will.
WAR OF WILL has a dosae of 1.72, which is very good. We see Forli in his pedigree, and other old time classic sires like Never Bend. The presence of sprint oriented Prospector and Danzig is balanced out by the distance runners, but Danzig runners usually peak very early.
Handicapper take: Most handicappers will look at a dismal finish in a poor field in his last outing and dismiss him as one of the longest odds in the race, probably 80-1.
My take: Trainer Mark Casse is most dangerous off a poor performance. He rarely runs two or three great races in a row, and so this one is "must use" in exotic bets. I don't think of him in the win category, nor even second place, but a great one for third or fourth.
SPINOFF has a dosage of 2.78, and is trained by Pletcher, a mainstay in the Derby.
Handicapper take: Running second in the weak field of the Louisiana Derby is no endorsement. Some people in the public were huge fans of his sire, Hard Spun, which may make him an underlay even at 30-1. He should be 50-1
My take: Pletcher is flailing and trying to enter anyone, I would say. A pretender and candidate for finishing last.
BODEXPRESS is a maiden, never won a race. He ran second in the Florida Derby because the third and fourth place finishers weren't even trying. His dosage is 8.33
Handicapper take: If he draws in, he's got the highest odds, probably 150-1. Can't blame anyone who takes a flier on those odds.
My take: If he draws in, he may save Spinoff the humiliation of running last, although more likely, he'll just run evenly enough to finish about 15th or so. Even at 250-1, I'm avoiding.
BY MY STANDARDS is trained by little known Calhoun, and has a dosage of 3.00. His main influence is Mr. Prospector, and his dosage should be higher.
Handicapper take: No reason to endorse. Odds about 50-1
My take: I doubt he'll even be entered, honestly, when it's all said and done. If he is, I can't use him. He'll have to do the Missouri and "show me".
ANOTHERTWISTAFATE has a 2.20 dosage, but is another with mostly sprinter Mr. Prospector influence, and needs an unnatural hard fast track.
Handicapper take: Much like Standards, there is no reason to endorse, and is another 50-1
My take: Same as Standards, he'll have to "show me".
MAXIMUM SECURITY is a wise guy choice, particularly from Beyer lovers at drf.com (daily racing form, the authority on horse racing in the U.S.). He has a fairly high dosage of 3.00
While his Florida Derby win was on the speed favoring "fast" Gulftream track, and a maiden ran second, the bloodlines aren't bad.
Handicapper take: DRF.COM is high on him for having two of the only three triple digit Beyer figures in this group. That certainly puts him in top four consideration to most handicappers, and figures to be a middle pick at odds of 12-1
My take: About the same, though not quite as high on him. The high dosage doesn't scare me. We see Halo, Dixieland Band, and the most royal bred A P Indy back in his lineage. Still on the fence about him.
CUTTING HUMOR is another Pletcher runner. The 2.11 dosage is quite generous for another one whose major influence is major sprinter Mr. Prospector.
Handicapper take: He won the anonymous Sunland Derby. While most Sunland Derby entrants flail in the derby, we do have the fluke occurrence of Mine That Bird, who won the Kentucky Derby. That lowers the odds to 30-1.
My take: I expect Mine That Bird to be a one time fluke. I do see some great pedigree when you go back in his lineage to Rahy, Gian'ts Causeway, and Dixieland Band. Most appealing is the fact that almost everyone in his lineage got better with age, so I'm not discounting him.
HAIKAL has a 3.00 dosage, and is trained by Kiaren McLaughlin, one of the best.
Handicapper take: He ran a distant third in the Wood to Tacitus and Tax, and looks a cut below. Must be figured at about 35-1.
My take: McLaughlin is much like Mott, most dangerous with older runners. If he couldn't win with the royal bred Alpha, I don't see much hope here. Kiaren is pretty much saying the New York runners are the best this year, and I think he's correct. May use him fourth in superfectas, but that's all.
LONG RANGE TODDY has a dosge of 4.33, with some giants like A P in his lineage, but overall not a distance bred runner. He's trained by Asmussen.
Handicapper take: He's a "yardstick". He won the Rebel stakes in Arkansas because he was the class of the race, but his class is Grade 3 as a 3 year old, and probably high claimers when he's 4. Odds here should be 45-1
My take: The handicapper take. A yardstick. He is good for his class, as stated above, but should be outclassed here. If he hits the board, it means a super weak Derby field. Can't use.
PLUS QUE PARFAIT won the UAE, which gives away money. They just give it away, what the heck. His dosage is 2.47, helped by A P Indy, Secretariat, and Pleasant Colony.
Handicapper take: UAE winners get about 50 times the money as they would in the U.S.. They're weak for the money. And they don't do well, historically, in the states. It will happen some day, maybe this day, so his odds will be about 12-1
My take: 12-1 is an underlay, not worth it. 30-1 is an underlay to me. Whether it's the shipping, the climate, or whatever, something just doesn't work with shippers from the Emirate, or from Japan. Can't use.
GRAY MUSICAIN has a dosage of 5.00 and is trained by the relatively anonymous Peter Miller. The dosage is correct. Mr. Prospector appears 4 times in the lineage.
Handicapper take: Ran second in the UAE, so that's bad enough. Odds figure to be 60-1.
My take: 60-1 is not high enough to get me. This one defines "pretender".
MASTER FENCER is the Japan hope, so I expect when he neighs, his mouth doesn't move. His trainer is Kaiche Tsunoda, and it would be fun to see him win just so people could joke about his last race in the "FUKURYA". What red neck wouldn't enjoy that?
Handicapper take: Like the UAE, Japan entrants suffer in the Derby, historically. Some day it will change. Odds will be high, maybe 50-1 or higher
My take: Initially, I want to dismiss this one, but his pedigree is outstanding, but so were past Japanese entrants. Sunday Silence and Wild Again are perfect 1 1/4 mile sires. I'm not dismissing this one. The Japanese are quick learners. Whatever the reason for past defeats, they may have seen a way to improve off those. If his odds are over 30-1, I'm definitely including in bets.
WIN WIN WIN has a high dosage of 4.50, which may be a bit higher than his lineage suggests.
Handicapper take: He's trained by Mike Trombetto, one of the most respected by old timers, so he needs to be looked at. He ran second in the Bluegrass, coming from behind, which it tough to do there. For the wisest wiser wise guys, so he'll be high odds of 50-1.
My take: Wisest wiser wise guys are often right. I'll put a saver on him.
TAX is trained by fairly anonymous Danny Gargan, who once worked for the legend Zito. Zito used to bet with me at my window at Keeneland, before I argued with a security guard and got fired. Zito is super class, and doesn't go for big money any more. I hope Gargan has a good future.
Handicapper take. The 1.56 dosage is outstanding, and well deserved. He made a bit of a blunder move in New York, and still finished a close second to the outstanding Tacitus. He's being pooh-poohed by drf.com, so his odds will be about 25-1.
My take: This looks like a dangerous runner. However, for my part, I already bet him in future derby pool 2, and boxed him in exactas with 4 others, including the 24 (the field), which includes almost everyone in the race, so I don't have to include him. I can just look past him, and if he beats me, I still win on the future book bet. I will say that I'm betting him to place and show, and he's a real contender.
CODE OF HONOR-I save the best for last. I mentioned how in the eighties and nineties, we argued over who the best future trainer was. Well, I was for McGaughey. He made some mistakes in earlier derbies, and waited till he had a real contender in Orb, and that was my only Derby winner in the past 7 years. I also like Dallas Stewart, who finished second, so you know it was my best derby ever.
Handicapper take. His 0.76 dosage may be the lowest of any here. Blushing Groom is his major influence. He gets speed from Prospector, who appears twice five generations back. A good mix. Real handicappers will like him. He runs late, and it's obvious Claude (Shug as most call him) is reserving him to peak now. The difference now is that with Orb, he only had him peak for the derby, but now he's trying to salvage him for the triple crown. Figure the odds around 11-1
My take: He is my future book 1 and 3 bet, and I'm a Shug fan. I think he's more likely to run second or third, though, because Shug wants him to be competitive in all 3 legs of the crown. He could be the triple crown winner, though.
My take on the picks is nothing special. I'm terrible at picking the Derby, mostly because the Derby isn't class past performance, but "class determiner". It determines who is the class most years. This year looks no different. That's how during all those years when favorites never won, we knew it was honest, and during the years when nothing but low prices did well, we knew there was mob interference.
Most Kentucky Derby winners you may as well pick your favorite name. The race doesn't follow "class". It "determines class".
GAME WINNER-Probable favorite, and deserves to be so, despite running second to Roadster. That will likely put Roadster at a close second choice. Baffert is training 3 here who will probably be among the five with the lowest odds. And it's hard to dispute, not only on form, but because trainers enter multiple runners in the same race only because the trainer believes they are equally matched, and the form on these three is outstanding. Game Winner is the class, and has run against class his entire career.
The dosage on Game Winner is 2.33, and for newbies, that means the pedigree is very good. The lower the number, the better the pedigree is seen as being. For many years, no derby winner had a dosage of over 4.00, and 3.00 was seen as very high. We do see some sprint bloodlines in Mr. Prospector twice, but both are five generations back, giving him a great mix of speed and stamina.
Handicapper take: Hard to avoid. The long campaign is the only reason to see fault. Could have run his entire gamut, in other words, could have "shot his wad" long term. The class makes him a handicapper 4-1 favorite in a field of 20.
My take: I'm using him on top in some trifectas, maybe second in a few, but almost never in third, on the basis that if he "shot his long term wad" he won't finish third, and otherwise will be in the top two. I'm concerned that Baffert has to enter three runners. If all three run first, second, and third, there's undeniably either black magic or crooked race fixing from the mob who would clean up if that happens. Since the mob doesn't "share" winnings with handicappers, I have to take a stance against at 4-1.
ROADSTER-lightly raced, undefeated Baffert runner who beat Game Winner. His 2.60 dosage is not deserved, as his pedigree is sprint based, beginning with six furlong expert Mr. Prospector.
Handicapper take: Almost every handicapper will look at the "bounce" probability for Roadster to run a poor race. Of course, he may be so healthy that he is still at his peak. He's really only faced one proven class runner in Game Winner, who most believe was not being pushed. Odds should be 5-1 at best.
My take: I certainly have to go against the continued improvement. Sprint bloodlines on what looks to be a deep and natural surface after the rains, make this one I will avoid altogether. He has to beat me.
IMPROBABLE-Last of the Baffert trio, the one he seems to be sneaking in, comes off two second place finishes in Arkansas, which shows class. His 4.23 dosage is high, and probably deserved, despite some noble ones in his pedigree. The mix doesn't match with the runners who have better dosage numbers.
Handicapper take: Looks to be primed for good effort, and Baffert thinks he's as good as the other two. Handicappers will make him about 8-1 and fourth choice or so.
My take: While his pedigree includes a few giants, the dosage is correct, and he's one I'm tossing out except in a few trifectas.
OMAHA BEACH beat Improbable in Arkansas. His dosage of 2.69 is not deserved, and doesn't indicate his sprint pedigree.
Handicapper take: Has been phenomenal, and looks awesome when you see him run. Handicappers will wonder if Improbable, who ran second to him, was that good any way, and he should be about 7-1 at third choice. He already is the "wise guy's pick".
My take: Trainer Mandella, an also ran in most derbies, is aided by co owner Eliot Walden, one of the sharpest horsemen around. That could make a difference. However, his form looks too good, and horse racing is not favorable to the hare in the hare-tortoise game. Like Game Winner, I will use him on top in a few trifectas, but not second or third. And "wise guy's picks" almost never do any good.
TACITIUS has incredible bloodlines and a dosage of 1.60, with major influence by Sir Ivor. He also has Mott, one of the greatest trainers ever.
Handicapper take: His Aqueduct win has to be taken seriously, as does everything else. In the eighties and nineties, the handicappers used to argue about who the best upcoming trainer was between Mott and McGaughey. Purists loved Mott. He's lost a few derbies, and learned from them. Have to expect him to be close to fourth or fifth choice at 8-1.
My take: The only thing I hate is that Mott also considers the poorly bred Country House. If he thinks Country House is equal to Tacitius, then Tacitius isn't as good as I think, and Country House is better than I think, but that puts them in the middle. I still think he is the one to beat, but if Mott doesn't scratch out Country House, I won't make any straight bets on Tacitus. 8-1 is a steal on him, though.
COUNTRY HOUSE is Mott's second runner. The 2.69 dosage is lower than it should be. He ran third at Arkansas in the big race with Omaha Beach and Improbable. Mott obviously expects improvement.
Handicapper take: Hard to endorse this one. Should be 30-1
My take: Like I said, if Mott enters both runners, I'll expect this one to be better than his odds indicate, so I'll put him on the bottom of exotic bets, but that's all.
VEKOMA won the Blue Grass. Keeneland has always been where the very best run, the cream of the cream of the crop, the undeniable best horses, colts, fillies, mares, geldings. The dosage of 2.56 is not well deserved. A bit too much sprint in the pedigree for me.
However, the Bluegrass has not been up to par as it used to be. Weaker fields. Before the Bluegrass was run, it was obviously a weak field to handicappers. Vekoma was up front early, and all day long at Keeneland, however they were placed in the backstretch was about equal to how they ended up. There was very little passing in the stretch. Got to figure this one to be 15-1
My take: 15-1 is a huge underlay, and this one is a total pretender in my view. He'll have to do a Missouri on me and "show me" he can win the derby. Maybe he will.
WAR OF WILL has a dosae of 1.72, which is very good. We see Forli in his pedigree, and other old time classic sires like Never Bend. The presence of sprint oriented Prospector and Danzig is balanced out by the distance runners, but Danzig runners usually peak very early.
Handicapper take: Most handicappers will look at a dismal finish in a poor field in his last outing and dismiss him as one of the longest odds in the race, probably 80-1.
My take: Trainer Mark Casse is most dangerous off a poor performance. He rarely runs two or three great races in a row, and so this one is "must use" in exotic bets. I don't think of him in the win category, nor even second place, but a great one for third or fourth.
SPINOFF has a dosage of 2.78, and is trained by Pletcher, a mainstay in the Derby.
Handicapper take: Running second in the weak field of the Louisiana Derby is no endorsement. Some people in the public were huge fans of his sire, Hard Spun, which may make him an underlay even at 30-1. He should be 50-1
My take: Pletcher is flailing and trying to enter anyone, I would say. A pretender and candidate for finishing last.
BODEXPRESS is a maiden, never won a race. He ran second in the Florida Derby because the third and fourth place finishers weren't even trying. His dosage is 8.33
Handicapper take: If he draws in, he's got the highest odds, probably 150-1. Can't blame anyone who takes a flier on those odds.
My take: If he draws in, he may save Spinoff the humiliation of running last, although more likely, he'll just run evenly enough to finish about 15th or so. Even at 250-1, I'm avoiding.
BY MY STANDARDS is trained by little known Calhoun, and has a dosage of 3.00. His main influence is Mr. Prospector, and his dosage should be higher.
Handicapper take: No reason to endorse. Odds about 50-1
My take: I doubt he'll even be entered, honestly, when it's all said and done. If he is, I can't use him. He'll have to do the Missouri and "show me".
ANOTHERTWISTAFATE has a 2.20 dosage, but is another with mostly sprinter Mr. Prospector influence, and needs an unnatural hard fast track.
Handicapper take: Much like Standards, there is no reason to endorse, and is another 50-1
My take: Same as Standards, he'll have to "show me".
MAXIMUM SECURITY is a wise guy choice, particularly from Beyer lovers at drf.com (daily racing form, the authority on horse racing in the U.S.). He has a fairly high dosage of 3.00
While his Florida Derby win was on the speed favoring "fast" Gulftream track, and a maiden ran second, the bloodlines aren't bad.
Handicapper take: DRF.COM is high on him for having two of the only three triple digit Beyer figures in this group. That certainly puts him in top four consideration to most handicappers, and figures to be a middle pick at odds of 12-1
My take: About the same, though not quite as high on him. The high dosage doesn't scare me. We see Halo, Dixieland Band, and the most royal bred A P Indy back in his lineage. Still on the fence about him.
CUTTING HUMOR is another Pletcher runner. The 2.11 dosage is quite generous for another one whose major influence is major sprinter Mr. Prospector.
Handicapper take: He won the anonymous Sunland Derby. While most Sunland Derby entrants flail in the derby, we do have the fluke occurrence of Mine That Bird, who won the Kentucky Derby. That lowers the odds to 30-1.
My take: I expect Mine That Bird to be a one time fluke. I do see some great pedigree when you go back in his lineage to Rahy, Gian'ts Causeway, and Dixieland Band. Most appealing is the fact that almost everyone in his lineage got better with age, so I'm not discounting him.
HAIKAL has a 3.00 dosage, and is trained by Kiaren McLaughlin, one of the best.
Handicapper take: He ran a distant third in the Wood to Tacitus and Tax, and looks a cut below. Must be figured at about 35-1.
My take: McLaughlin is much like Mott, most dangerous with older runners. If he couldn't win with the royal bred Alpha, I don't see much hope here. Kiaren is pretty much saying the New York runners are the best this year, and I think he's correct. May use him fourth in superfectas, but that's all.
LONG RANGE TODDY has a dosge of 4.33, with some giants like A P in his lineage, but overall not a distance bred runner. He's trained by Asmussen.
Handicapper take: He's a "yardstick". He won the Rebel stakes in Arkansas because he was the class of the race, but his class is Grade 3 as a 3 year old, and probably high claimers when he's 4. Odds here should be 45-1
My take: The handicapper take. A yardstick. He is good for his class, as stated above, but should be outclassed here. If he hits the board, it means a super weak Derby field. Can't use.
PLUS QUE PARFAIT won the UAE, which gives away money. They just give it away, what the heck. His dosage is 2.47, helped by A P Indy, Secretariat, and Pleasant Colony.
Handicapper take: UAE winners get about 50 times the money as they would in the U.S.. They're weak for the money. And they don't do well, historically, in the states. It will happen some day, maybe this day, so his odds will be about 12-1
My take: 12-1 is an underlay, not worth it. 30-1 is an underlay to me. Whether it's the shipping, the climate, or whatever, something just doesn't work with shippers from the Emirate, or from Japan. Can't use.
GRAY MUSICAIN has a dosage of 5.00 and is trained by the relatively anonymous Peter Miller. The dosage is correct. Mr. Prospector appears 4 times in the lineage.
Handicapper take: Ran second in the UAE, so that's bad enough. Odds figure to be 60-1.
My take: 60-1 is not high enough to get me. This one defines "pretender".
MASTER FENCER is the Japan hope, so I expect when he neighs, his mouth doesn't move. His trainer is Kaiche Tsunoda, and it would be fun to see him win just so people could joke about his last race in the "FUKURYA". What red neck wouldn't enjoy that?
Handicapper take: Like the UAE, Japan entrants suffer in the Derby, historically. Some day it will change. Odds will be high, maybe 50-1 or higher
My take: Initially, I want to dismiss this one, but his pedigree is outstanding, but so were past Japanese entrants. Sunday Silence and Wild Again are perfect 1 1/4 mile sires. I'm not dismissing this one. The Japanese are quick learners. Whatever the reason for past defeats, they may have seen a way to improve off those. If his odds are over 30-1, I'm definitely including in bets.
WIN WIN WIN has a high dosage of 4.50, which may be a bit higher than his lineage suggests.
Handicapper take: He's trained by Mike Trombetto, one of the most respected by old timers, so he needs to be looked at. He ran second in the Bluegrass, coming from behind, which it tough to do there. For the wisest wiser wise guys, so he'll be high odds of 50-1.
My take: Wisest wiser wise guys are often right. I'll put a saver on him.
TAX is trained by fairly anonymous Danny Gargan, who once worked for the legend Zito. Zito used to bet with me at my window at Keeneland, before I argued with a security guard and got fired. Zito is super class, and doesn't go for big money any more. I hope Gargan has a good future.
Handicapper take. The 1.56 dosage is outstanding, and well deserved. He made a bit of a blunder move in New York, and still finished a close second to the outstanding Tacitus. He's being pooh-poohed by drf.com, so his odds will be about 25-1.
My take: This looks like a dangerous runner. However, for my part, I already bet him in future derby pool 2, and boxed him in exactas with 4 others, including the 24 (the field), which includes almost everyone in the race, so I don't have to include him. I can just look past him, and if he beats me, I still win on the future book bet. I will say that I'm betting him to place and show, and he's a real contender.
CODE OF HONOR-I save the best for last. I mentioned how in the eighties and nineties, we argued over who the best future trainer was. Well, I was for McGaughey. He made some mistakes in earlier derbies, and waited till he had a real contender in Orb, and that was my only Derby winner in the past 7 years. I also like Dallas Stewart, who finished second, so you know it was my best derby ever.
Handicapper take. His 0.76 dosage may be the lowest of any here. Blushing Groom is his major influence. He gets speed from Prospector, who appears twice five generations back. A good mix. Real handicappers will like him. He runs late, and it's obvious Claude (Shug as most call him) is reserving him to peak now. The difference now is that with Orb, he only had him peak for the derby, but now he's trying to salvage him for the triple crown. Figure the odds around 11-1
My take: He is my future book 1 and 3 bet, and I'm a Shug fan. I think he's more likely to run second or third, though, because Shug wants him to be competitive in all 3 legs of the crown. He could be the triple crown winner, though.
