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Post by Skaathar on Aug 26, 2020 3:52:04 GMT
"Most of the worlds have their cinemas open to some extent" is not the same thing as having all cinemas fully open. And Black Widow is too big a movie for Disney to risk it against a partially open movie release where a good chunk of the movie-going population would hesitate to go out and watch movies. That's not even including all the countries with stricter lockdowns and movie houses still closed. Well, here are some of the things to consider: 1. Black Widow might have the budget around $150 million, which is certainly big, but not necessarily huge, especially when compared to films like Tenet. 2. Sending a film that belongs in a major film series straight to streaming service poses a lot more risk than doing the same with a standalone film like Mulan. 3. According to some, this film might set up Florence Pugh's character as the next Black Widow-ish character, and that plan is almost guaranteed to go down the toilet if Black Widow goes straight to Disney+, and it should also be pointed out that a film that goes straight to a streaming service almost never gets another form of home media release (in fact, that's one reason why I dislike streaming services). 4. Black Widow doesn't have several detrimental factors piling up within a short period of time, which is pretty much what happened to Mulan with the report of anti-U.S. stance growing in China. 5. If Black Widow goes straight to Disney+, people might expect/wish other MCU films to do the same, which could end up destroying the film division of MCU in a long run. Keep in mind, the decision to send Mulan straight to Disney+ was probably a last straw in the first place, and even if it works with Mulan, it doesn't necessarily guarantee that it will work with Black Widow. And there's also the fact that it was pretty much announced that the film will have 30 minutes of IMAX aspect ratio sequences, something that Mulan was never going to have. 1. Problem is we have no idea yet how Tenet will perform. I don't recall any big budget movie doing that well in the box office since COVID lockdown began. Just because Tenet is willing to risk it doesn't mean Disney is willing to risk it. 2. Why would a movie in a series be in a bigger risk than a standalone movie? One would think more people would actually be keen to watch it due to it being in a series. 3. "and that plan is almost guaranteed to go down the toilet if Black Widow goes straight to Disney+" - no movie has ever been release straight to Disney+ before. In fact, their move with Mulan is the first of its kind that I recall, charging $30 to watch it on a streaming service that you already pay for monthly. We don't have enough information at this point to "guarantee" success or failure. 4. No it doesn't have several detrimental factors, but again I point out that Disney may not be willing to wait forever to launch a movie that was supposed to have been launched in May. Especially when they have other movies already in schedule. 5. People might expect other movies to go to Disney+ but Disney can simply refuse to do it, especially if the world returns to normal, non-lockdown mode. It won't be the first time Disney didn't listen to its fans. I agree that deciding to send Mulan to D+ was probably a move of desperation. What I'm saying is that time may come that Disney would be similarly desperate with Black Widow due to time constraints. It's not there yet, but if Mulan is successful then there's a good chance it will follow.
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Post by blockbusted on Aug 26, 2020 4:39:48 GMT
Well, here are some of the things to consider: 1. Black Widow might have the budget around $150 million, which is certainly big, but not necessarily huge, especially when compared to films like Tenet. 2. Sending a film that belongs in a major film series straight to streaming service poses a lot more risk than doing the same with a standalone film like Mulan. 3. According to some, this film might set up Florence Pugh's character as the next Black Widow-ish character, and that plan is almost guaranteed to go down the toilet if Black Widow goes straight to Disney+, and it should also be pointed out that a film that goes straight to a streaming service almost never gets another form of home media release (in fact, that's one reason why I dislike streaming services). 4. Black Widow doesn't have several detrimental factors piling up within a short period of time, which is pretty much what happened to Mulan with the report of anti-U.S. stance growing in China. 5. If Black Widow goes straight to Disney+, people might expect/wish other MCU films to do the same, which could end up destroying the film division of MCU in a long run. Keep in mind, the decision to send Mulan straight to Disney+ was probably a last straw in the first place, and even if it works with Mulan, it doesn't necessarily guarantee that it will work with Black Widow. And there's also the fact that it was pretty much announced that the film will have 30 minutes of IMAX aspect ratio sequences, something that Mulan was never going to have. 1. Problem is we have no idea yet how Tenet will perform. I don't recall any big budget movie doing that well in the box office since COVID lockdown began. Just because Tenet is willing to risk it doesn't mean Disney is willing to risk it. 2. Why would a movie in a series be in a bigger risk than a standalone movie? One would think more people would actually be keen to watch it due to it being in a series. 3. "and that plan is almost guaranteed to go down the toilet if Black Widow goes straight to Disney+" - no movie has ever been release straight to Disney+ before. In fact, their move with Mulan is the first of its kind that I recall, charging $30 to watch it on a streaming service that you already pay for monthly. We don't have enough information at this point to "guarantee" success or failure. 4. No it doesn't have several detrimental factors, but again I point out that Disney may not be willing to wait forever to launch a movie that was supposed to have been launched in May. Especially when they have other movies already in schedule. 5. People might expect other movies to go to Disney+ but Disney can simply refuse to do it, especially if the world returns to normal, non-lockdown mode. It won't be the first time Disney didn't listen to its fans. I agree that deciding to send Mulan to D+ was probably a move of desperation. What I'm saying is that time may come that Disney would be similarly desperate with Black Widow due to time constraints. It's not there yet, but if Mulan is successful then there's a good chance it will follow. 1. Well, given that Black Widow probably has a smaller budget than a typical MCU film AND given that Peninsula performed reasonably well in Asia (keep in mind, $16 million is a pretty big budget in my country), they might put their hope on those territories. 2. A film that goes straight to VOD/streaming service gets into a higher risk of HD piracy, which is at least partly why you rarely see this kind of thing happening for tentpole films, and if a film that belongs in a main series gets this kind of treatment, it may negatively affect the entire series as well. 3. And that price tag is at least partly why I still have doubts about Mulan becoming a success. Perhaps it won't necessarily fail, but that doesn't mean it will make enough money for Disney to do the same with others. 4. It probably did, actually. The U.S./China conflict was reportedly getting worse with the whole Hong Kong controversy spreading more and more lately, there was already some controversies among fans because of how different it was from the animated film, it couldn't count on IMAX because it never had any IMAX scenes planned, it wasn't part of a major franchise, so its future wasn't as certain as other tentpole films, and Disney spent too much money for the film's marketing and they probably thought that there wasn't any point anymore. Keep in mind, Mulan got delayed just before its official cinema release date. 5. Well... with all due respect, based on the intelligence level of some of the Americans I've seen lately... My point is that even if Mulan becomes a success, Disney might not immediately decide what to do with Black Widow or Soul since the former is part of a major film series that could affect the entire future of MCU (possibly due to any clues that it might have for future films) and the latter is from the studio that has lost so much money from Onward tragedy. I'm kind of expecting that Cruella might receive that treatment, not to mention that Disney has a bit more Disney+ backups later this year.
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