Kal_1993
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@kalyan1993
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Post by Kal_1993 on Aug 9, 2017 19:55:19 GMT
u/FellatioNelson
https://www.reddit.com/r/gameofthrones/comments/6slqgz/main_spoilers_cerseis_just_not_smart_enough/
We have seen Cersei's Modus Operandi over and over again. She makes a short term play that costs her in the long run.
Tycho Nestoris of the Iron Bank said some very revealing things this episode. One was that the Bank does not Bet on winners and losers, it instead invests in the chosen victor. He also says the bank will support the Iron Throne once their debt is paid, not necessarily the current Queen, but whoever is on the throne. Second he appears to be flattering her by saying Tywin never paid his debt in full and she is really outshining her father by doing so.
This is her big mistake, Tywin was no fool and he knew that while the Lannisters were in debt to the Bank the Bank had a vested interest in their success. By paying the debt in full Cersei has allowed Tycho to wash his hands of the Lannisters altogether. After what we saw on the battlefield we have a good idea whose position is strongest and who the Bank would like to back. This clearly contributes to the dire situation in Kings Landing with no grain and limited supplies. She will not Abdicate, instead force the dragons to destroy the city at which point the Kingslayer will be the Valonqar most assume he will be. The irony of this theory is in this case the Lannisters are undone by paying their debt.
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Kal_1993
Sophomore
@kalyan1993
Posts: 475
Likes: 26
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Post by Kal_1993 on Aug 9, 2017 19:57:11 GMT
While this is not something I entirely agree with, but it all looks like this is where the show could go. Great thinking.
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Post by Ad○rably Obn○xi○us🐢 on Aug 9, 2017 23:59:55 GMT
This will never do. Cue Leo storming into this thread in a fit of pique throwing screenshots of his own Instagram posts in your face while huffing about your stupidity in believing this hogwash and citing his belief that the white walkers are just s red herring.
Also, lizard bitch etc etc
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Post by CynicalDreamer2 on Aug 10, 2017 0:14:07 GMT
I like this theory because it makes sense. Does the bank ever lie though?
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Post by Leo of Red Keep on Aug 10, 2017 2:31:02 GMT
This will never do. Cue Leo storming into this thread in a fit of pique throwing screenshots of his own Instagram posts in your face while huffing about your stupidity in believing this hogwash and citing his belief that the white walkers are just s red herring. Also, lizard bitch etc etc Thanks for sparing me all that work  We all know Daenerys will die next season, so the Iron Bank will have to keep supporting Cersei. They don't care, as long as the crown pays.  |
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Post by Leo of Red Keep on Aug 10, 2017 2:58:26 GMT
This is her big mistake, Tywin was no fool and he knew that while the Lannisters were in debt to the Bank the Bank had a vested interest in their success. By paying the debt in full Cersei has allowed Tycho to wash his hands of the Lannisters altogether. There never was any talk of a Lannister debt to the Iron Bank, only of the Crown. Therefore, no Lannister debt would have gone lost to the Iron Bank though its support of a competing pretender, which is why it did support Stannis in S4. We can agree paying in full looks like an extreme, risky move, but it does not free the bank from the Lannisters since it could always demand from anyone they supported that they took over the full amount of the Crown's debt. What I read from the dialogue is that the Golden Company Cersei wants to hire can be controlled by the Iron Bank for whatever purpose. |
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Post by Ad○rably Obn○xi○us🐢 on Aug 10, 2017 3:18:26 GMT
This will never do. Cue Leo storming into this thread in a fit of pique throwing screenshots of his own Instagram posts in your face while huffing about your stupidity in believing this hogwash and citing his belief that the white walkers are just s red herring. Also, lizard bitch etc etc Thanks for sparing me all that work We all know Daenerys will die next season, so the Iron Bank will have to keep supporting Cersei. They don't care, as long as the crown pays. lol you are something else.  |
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pk9
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@pk9
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Post by pk9 on Aug 10, 2017 16:57:30 GMT
The Iron Bank's business plan doesn't really hold up for sustained conflicts:
1) Back House A because they will pay you back plus interest.
2) When House A falls behind, then you put more money into House B because they promise to repay you their debt PLUS House A's.
3) If House B starts losing the war, then you switch sides again and either add more money to House A or invest in House C, because they promise to repay all the debts that are owed.
4a) repeat until one side actually wins.
4b) If nobody pays you back, then you spend money out of your own pocket to pay mercenaries like the Golden Company or Faceless Men to recover your investment.
At some point the costs of the war could become so high that there won't be enough wealth left in all of Westeros for anyone to pay you back.
The other problem is of course this board game/RTS game mechanic that gold solves all problems. Need to feed 10,000 troops? As long as you have gold, food will magically appear. Need to build 1000 ships? You don't need trees, just gold. Need a dragon? It'll cost you 1,000,000 gold but if you can come up with it, victory is yours!
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Post by Leo of Red Keep on Aug 11, 2017 5:00:44 GMT
The Iron Bank's business plan doesn't really hold up for sustained conflicts: … At some point the costs of the war could become so high that there won't be enough wealth left in all of Westeros for anyone to pay you back. Obviously. The Iron Bank can only really benefit from peace, like almost anyone else. They will back the side most likely to bring peace and repay them. They won't ever back Daenerys because that shithead will definitely come up with some anti-capitalistic nonsense too. |
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Post by CynicalDreamer2 on Aug 12, 2017 2:27:58 GMT
Can someone tell me when the Tyrell's declared war? Are y'all referring to her aligning with Dany? If so, they thought they were being sneaky so why would Oleanna tip Cercei off by calling the banner men?
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pk9
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@pk9
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Post by pk9 on Aug 15, 2017 7:40:32 GMT
1) They brought their fleet to Meereen to help ferry Dany's troops.
2) Cersei told Jaime Olenna had declared war while standing on the map in the season premiere.
3) Olenna was in Highgarden to bring the Tyrell army to besiege King's Landing. Bringing just the Tyrell army and not the bannermen would be ridiculously stupid.
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On a different note, what the hell is Euron doing? He's got 1000 ships. You'd think he could pretty much completely blockade Dragonstone so Dany can't just move her Dothraki secretly to the mainland or send rowboats to King's Landing whenever she wants. They'd have either prevented Jon from meeting Dany or trapped him on the island. Also would have caught Theon trying to crawl back.
This seems like a better strategy than the current hit-and-run stuff. They could have prevented the Unsullied from reaching Casterly Rock completely rather than trolling them by torching their ships after they landed.
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Post by Leo of Red Keep on Aug 15, 2017 7:53:42 GMT
On a different note, what the hell is Euron doing? He's got 1000 ships. You'd think he could pretty much completely blockade Dragonstone so Dany can't just move her Dothraki secretly to the mainland or send rowboats to King's Landing whenever she wants. They'd have either prevented Jon from meeting Dany or trapped him on the island. Also would have caught Theon trying to crawl back. This seems like a better strategy than the current hit-and-run stuff. They could have prevented the Unsullied from reaching Casterly Rock completely rather than trolling them by torching their ships after they landed. Are you just discovering now that the writing of the series no longer makes any sense? The Dothraki people most likely cannot settle on Dragonstone, so they must have landed somewhere else. It is an invasion and there should have been real war at this place. There's no way they should have been able to ride down to the Roseroad unchallenged. They should be pillaging the countryside for supplies too, as every army has always done. Whatever you see in this show is now meant for spectacle and fool pleasing. None of it resists more than 2 minutes of logical thought. |
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