Will Black Panther be bigger than WW or Deadpool???

No

Time will tell but I'm guessing no.

Lets look at the numbers.



Wonder Woman:

Domestic: $412 million

Foreign: $409 million

Total: $821 million



Deadpool:

Domestic: $363 million

Foreign: $420 million

Total: $783 million



It's highly unlikely for Black Panther to beat Wonder Woman's domestic total of $412 million. That being said Wonder Woman's foreign totals were a little sluggish. Put another way:Wonder Woman was a cultural phenomenon in the US not so much elsewhere.

Usually foreign revenue is more than domestic. Seen as a percentage of foreign vs total. For instance Civil War made 1.153 billion total and foreign market was 745 million so 64% of Civil War's earning came from foreign market.

Justice League: 65%

Ant-Man: 65%

Spiderman hc: 62%

BvS: 62%

X-Men:
Days of Future Past: 68%

X-men Apocalypse:71%

The Amazing Spider-Man: 65%

Thor: 59%



I could keep going, but usually foreign grosses are more than half of total gross. This didn't happen with Wonder Woman. It's was 49%. You could look at that as a glass half empty or half full. Either her foreign gross are extremely anemic or her domestic's were gang busters.



So can BP beat Wonder Woman domestically? I'd say no unless it becomes a cultural phenomenon like WW. Now it could beat WW in foreign and total. That isn't out of the question. BP will have to do great everywhere but also in the Chinese Market if it's released there. It might not be released there, but MCU has gotten into China pretty easily before. So with the caveat of not beating WW domestically BP could still beat it World Wide.



Now speaking of Chinese market Deadpool wasn't released there (and it's foreign percentage was still 53%) so that's an advantage if BP does. Deadpool also was a cultural phenomenon aided by a fucking brilliant marketing campaign, good movie, and a passion product of Ryan Reynolds. So Deadpool is in the same boat as WW for different reasons. If BP is released in China, and it does well there, then it's conceivable that BP could do better than DP World Wide but not domestically.



All of this could be turned on it's head with a massive unforeseen flop. (highly dubious) or fucking massive hit getting a billion in World Wide gross. (also highly dubious)

Other than Hong Kong, Black Panther isn't getting released in China so NO, Black Panther's foreign box office won't beat Wonder Woman's foreign box office either.

What would it take to beat WW and keep with the current trends? It needs $821 million to tie Wonder Woman's total. Most superhero/comic book movies trends in favor of Foreign Markets making more money than US. The average foreign gross in last decade falls in 55%-65% range. Lets take the middle of that 60%. To tie Wonder Woman at $821 million with a safe 60% foreign market providing the gross Black Panther would have to make $328 million domestic. That would put it between Ironman at $318 million and Guardians of the Galaxy at $333 million.

Probably because the feminist movement isn't quite as big in foreign countries.

I think it will at least be on par. China be damned.

Honestly I'm looking forward to the reaction to the film be it negative or positive.

I'm guessing that the usual suspects on this board will call it SJW propaganda like they called Wonder Woman SJW/feminist propaganda.

Maybe on these boards calling the movie SJW Propaganda was limited, but other sites, facebook, twitter,  forums, reddit, imgur, etc you run into that point of view constantly.