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Post by dazz on Dec 16, 2017 12:36:06 GMT
PS. The double the budget rule is complete BS. I see you're still in denial. I even broke down why its common nature in Hollywood to use it, and of course you ignored me. Studios get half of the money from the box office on average worldwide. So, when they double the production budget it has since hit that mark of basic profit. This of course doesn't mean the movie is a smash hit, far from it. However, since you cannot think above a second grade level, you couldn't understand that. Actually mate that's outdated thinking, it comes from the days when the bulk of a films BO was domestic, domestically studios enjoy a generally 50% split of the profit, maybe a little higher, but internationally from my own observation of breakdowns and such the split is more like just above 40%, with the Chinese box office split considerably smaller than that, you add in the old standard is from a time when $5m on advertising was a major campaign compared to now where $30-40m is the average cost of marketing any film, and with blockbusters were they seem to have to spend $100m in marketing, then the old double the budget rule doesn't hold up.
Even then back in the day the double the budget didn't mean a film made a profit at the box office, it meant the film was a success because back then with how much cheaper films were, how prominent the home video releases and how much they could make off of selling the TV rights to air the films were 2x the budget meant the film would be profitable, which again now given just how much so many of these films cost to make and how big the ad cost is coupled with the dwindling home media market means that doubling the budget alone doesn't insure a films going to be profitable.
That being said JL will ultimately earn them the money they want because things like DC, Marvel, SW & Disney as a whole make as much if not more on toy sales and the like, Batman & Wonder Woman apparently sold $1b in merch this past year alone, so even if the films a financial wash BO wise it still had a significantly large enough audience to increase the public awareness of Cyborg, Aquaman & Flash, the films have the secondary bonus of being grander scale versions of the old cartoons which existed primarily to sell toys to kids, so even if the film falls a little short of earning back it's cost BO wise they'll make it up in merch and shit, doesn't make the film any less of a disappointment BO wise but it does mean WB ultimately wont lose money from it most likely.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 16, 2017 13:15:18 GMT
I see you're still in denial. I even broke down why its common nature in Hollywood to use it, and of course you ignored me. Studios get half of the money from the box office on average worldwide. So, when they double the production budget it has since hit that mark of basic profit. This of course doesn't mean the movie is a smash hit, far from it. However, since you cannot think above a second grade level, you couldn't understand that. Actually mate that's outdated thinking, it comes from the days when the bulk of a films BO was domestic, domestically studios enjoy a generally 50% split of the profit, maybe a little higher, but internationally from my own observation of breakdowns and such the split is more like just above 40%, with the Chinese box office split considerably smaller than that, you add in the old standard is from a time when $5m on advertising was a major campaign compared to now where $30-40m is the average cost of marketing any film, and with blockbusters were they seem to have to spend $100m in marketing, then the old double the budget rule doesn't hold up.
Even then back in the day the double the budget didn't mean a film made a profit at the box office, it meant the film was a success because back then with how much cheaper films were, how prominent the home video releases and how much they could make off of selling the TV rights to air the films were 2x the budget meant the film would be profitable, which again now given just how much so many of these films cost to make and how big the ad cost is coupled with the dwindling home media market means that doubling the budget alone doesn't insure a films going to be profitable.
That being said JL will ultimately earn them the money they want because things like DC, Marvel, SW & Disney as a whole make as much if not more on toy sales and the like, Batman & Wonder Woman apparently sold $1b in merch this past year alone, so even if the films a financial wash BO wise it still had a significantly large enough audience to increase the public awareness of Cyborg, Aquaman & Flash, the films have the secondary bonus of being grander scale versions of the old cartoons which existed primarily to sell toys to kids, so even if the film falls a little short of earning back it's cost BO wise they'll make it up in merch and shit, doesn't make the film any less of a disappointment BO wise but it does mean WB ultimately wont lose money from it most likely.
The studios get a 52% split from the domestic BO, 25% from China and 42% from the rest of the international market. The marketing budget for JL was $150 million. You are wasting your time though, dude. He won't listen you. He only believes what he wishes was true.
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Post by dazz on Dec 16, 2017 13:51:26 GMT
The studios get a 52% split from the domestic BO, 25% from China and 42% from the rest of the international market. The marketing budget for JL was $150 million. You are wasting your time though, dude. He won't listen you. He only believes what he wishes was true. Yeah that's what I had gathered myself % wise, makes the $100m Chinese box office a lot less lucrative than first thought, but $150m for JL marketing? jesus fucking Christ how? like seriously it did not feel like that much of a marketing push, also if that's the cost surely the actual cost to break even for JL would need to be like $1b world wide.
This is what imo the problem is with the studios, it's not so much the quality of the films but the cost, it's part why the MCU films are so successful because Marvel make films that can be profitable at $500m and that's after doing $1b+ for some films, why do some studios insist on making films that to break even need to out gross every other film they did, the whole Dark Universe thing made me scratch my head as Cruise is less a draw now than he was in his prime and yet for The Mummy to break even it needed to do MI numbers, which is his career's highest earners it just it doesn't make sense, these people make my head hurt.
But like I said JL long term will make money I'm guessing for them but short term it's bit them on the butt, which I'm sad about because I like the film flaws and all.
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Post by dnno1 on Dec 16, 2017 14:57:55 GMT
We're at $624 million now. Time for our daily title update.
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Post by dnno1 on Dec 16, 2017 15:14:55 GMT
The studios get a 52% split from the domestic BO, 25% from China and 42% from the rest of the international market. The marketing budget for JL was $150 million. You are wasting your time though, dude. He won't listen you. He only believes what he wishes was true. Yeah that's what I had gathered myself % wise, makes the $100m Chinese box office a lot less lucrative than first thought, but $150m for JL marketing? jesus fucking Christ how? like seriously it did not feel like that much of a marketing push, also if that's the cost surely the actual cost to break even for JL would need to be like $1b world wide.
This is what imo the problem is with the studios, it's not so much the quality of the films but the cost, it's part why the MCU films are so successful because Marvel make films that can be profitable at $500m and that's after doing $1b+ for some films, why do some studios insist on making films that to break even need to out gross every other film they did, the whole Dark Universe thing made me scratch my head as Cruise is less a draw now than he was in his prime and yet for The Mummy to break even it needed to do MI numbers, which is his career's highest earners it just it doesn't make sense, these people make my head hurt.
But like I said JL long term will make money I'm guessing for them but short term it's bit them on the butt, which I'm sad about because I like the film flaws and all.
Actuall, according to ChinaFilmInsider, the production/distribution company gets more like 33% of the gate (see chinafilminsider.com/box-office-revenue-china-works/). Their figures say that of the average ticket price of $5.10 the production/distribution company gets $1.67 of it, which is 33% (note that the WB does its own distribution in China for Justice League). Furthermore that number could be higher for a big budget blockbuster film. It has been reported that Disney has asked for more than 60% of the gate for some of its films. Suffice it to say that Justice League has already passed the break even point.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 16, 2017 15:51:12 GMT
7 Yeah that's what I had gathered myself % wise, makes the $100m Chinese box office a lot less lucrative than first thought, but $150m for JL marketing? jesus fucking Christ how? like seriously it did not feel like that much of a marketing push, also if that's the cost surely the actual cost to break even for JL would need to be like $1b world wide.
This is what imo the problem is with the studios, it's not so much the quality of the films but the cost, it's part why the MCU films are so successful because Marvel make films that can be profitable at $500m and that's after doing $1b+ for some films, why do some studios insist on making films that to break even need to out gross every other film they did, the whole Dark Universe thing made me scratch my head as Cruise is less a draw now than he was in his prime and yet for The Mummy to break even it needed to do MI numbers, which is his career's highest earners it just it doesn't make sense, these people make my head hurt.
But like I said JL long term will make money I'm guessing for them but short term it's bit them on the butt, which I'm sad about because I like the film flaws and all.
Actuall, according to ChinaFilmInsider, the production/distribution company gets more like 33% of the gate (see chinafilminsider.com/box-office-revenue-china-works/). Their figures say that of the average ticket price of $5.10 the production/distribution company gets $1.67 of it, which is 33% (note that the WB does its own distribution in China for Justice League). Furthermore that number could be higher for a big budget blockbuster film. It has been reported that Disney has asked for more than 60% of the gate for some of its films. Suffice it to say that Justice League has already passed the break even point. Dude, it will likely be a few years before WB have recouped all the money they invested in this stinkbomb. Also - "Consequently, the net income from the purchase of an average RMB 35 ticket will be roughly RMB 9.34 ($1.36)."
$1.36 = 27%.....unless of course I am missing something?
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Post by scabab on Dec 16, 2017 16:38:35 GMT
It's at $626 million now, looks like they updated the overseas gross up through to Thursday. Probably looking at $635 million worldwide by Sunday.
A Friday gross of $1.06 million and Deadline is saying a $3.9 million weekend for $219.2 million total. That's a 60% weekend drop, which is a good bit more than Fantastic Beasts 51%. $240 million is still possible though.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 16, 2017 16:49:19 GMT
It's at $626 million now, looks like they updated the overseas gross up through to Thursday. Probably looking at $635 million worldwide by Sunday. A Friday gross of $1.06 million and Deadline is saying a $3.9 million weekend for $219.2 million total. That's a 60% weekend drop, which is a good bit more than Fantastic Beasts 51%. $240 million is still possible though. It'll be doing well to make another $10 million domestic.
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Post by dnno1 on Dec 16, 2017 18:04:05 GMT
7 Actuall, according to ChinaFilmInsider, the production/distribution company gets more like 33% of the gate (see chinafilminsider.com/box-office-revenue-china-works/). Their figures say that of the average ticket price of $5.10 the production/distribution company gets $1.67 of it, which is 33% (note that the WB does its own distribution in China for Justice League). Furthermore that number could be higher for a big budget blockbuster film. It has been reported that Disney has asked for more than 60% of the gate for some of its films. Suffice it to say that Justice League has already passed the break even point. Dude, it will likely be a few years before WB have recouped all the money they invested in this stinkbomb. Also - "Consequently, the net income from the purchase of an average RMB 35 ticket will be roughly RMB 9.34 ($1.36)."
$1.36 = 27%.....unless of course I am missing something? Yeah, the WB is also the distributor in China and they also get the distributor's cut. They are getting more than 27%.
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Post by scabab on Dec 16, 2017 18:11:46 GMT
It'll be doing well to make another $10 million domestic. It should do. Fantastic Beasts made another $25 million from it's 5th weekend. Justice League's 5th weekend is estimated to be 77% of Fantastic Beasts. If it were to maintain that then Justice League would make another $19 million for $238 million.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 16, 2017 18:15:14 GMT
7Dude, it will likely be a few years before WB have recouped all the money they invested in this stinkbomb. Also - "Consequently, the net income from the purchase of an average RMB 35 ticket will be roughly RMB 9.34 ($1.36)."
$1.36 = 27%.....unless of course I am missing something? Yeah, the WB is also the distributor in China and they also get the distributor's cut. They are getting more than 27%. Maybe. Maybe not. WB aren't Disney. The DCU isn't as popular is China as the MCU. Either way, the only reason the Chinese BO was brought up in the first place was to highlight the fact that CowherPowerForever doesn't have a clue what he is talking about.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 16, 2017 18:23:04 GMT
It'll be doing well to make another $10 million domestic. It should do. Fantastic Beasts made another $25 million from it's 5th weekend. Justice League's 5th weekend is estimated to be 77% of Fantastic Beasts. If it were to maintain that then Justice League would make another $19 million for $238 million. It's unlikely to stay at 77%. It is starting to fall off a cliff now TLJ is out and Jumanji is yet to come. Having said that, based on those figures it is going to bag over $10 million more.
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Post by dnno1 on Dec 16, 2017 19:49:13 GMT
Yeah, the WB is also the distributor in China and they also get the distributor's cut. They are getting more than 27%. Maybe. Maybe not. WB aren't Disney. The DCU isn't as popular is China as the MCU. Either way, the only reason the Chinese BO was brought up in the first place was to highlight the fact that CowherPowerForever doesn't have a clue what he is talking about.ย I think everybody should ask themselves why would Warner Brothers go out of their way to market Justice League in China more so than any place else if they were only going to get 25% of the gate? The answer is that they are not stupid and they are getting more than that.
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Post by CowherPowerForever on Dec 16, 2017 21:29:48 GMT
Actually mate that's outdated thinking, it comes from the days when the bulk of a films BO was domestic, domestically studios enjoy a generally 50% split of the profit, maybe a little higher, but internationally from my own observation of breakdowns and such the split is more like just above 40%, with the Chinese box office split considerably smaller than that, you add in the old standard is from a time when $5m on advertising was a major campaign compared to now where $30-40m is the average cost of marketing any film, and with blockbusters were they seem to have to spend $100m in marketing, then the old double the budget rule doesn't hold up.
Even then back in the day the double the budget didn't mean a film made a profit at the box office, it meant the film was a success because back then with how much cheaper films were, how prominent the home video releases and how much they could make off of selling the TV rights to air the films were 2x the budget meant the film would be profitable, which again now given just how much so many of these films cost to make and how big the ad cost is coupled with the dwindling home media market means that doubling the budget alone doesn't insure a films going to be profitable.
That being said JL will ultimately earn them the money they want because things like DC, Marvel, SW & Disney as a whole make as much if not more on toy sales and the like, Batman & Wonder Woman apparently sold $1b in merch this past year alone, so even if the films a financial wash BO wise it still had a significantly large enough audience to increase the public awareness of Cyborg, Aquaman & Flash, the films have the secondary bonus of being grander scale versions of the old cartoons which existed primarily to sell toys to kids, so even if the film falls a little short of earning back it's cost BO wise they'll make it up in merch and shit, doesn't make the film any less of a disappointment BO wise but it does mean WB ultimately wont lose money from it most likely.
It is generally 50 percent because of exactly what you said, bigger studios like Disney and Warner brothers get about 40 percent overseas and 60 percent domestically(Disney is even trying to get 65 percent for The Last Jedi). I never claimed that JL was a success because it doubled its production budget. Only that it most certainly was not a failure as the troll above keeps claiming. That is based on simple math. Advertising costs are also problematic to figure out. Remember earlier this year WB had only spent about 15 million to advertise Wonder Woman by the time the week of release rolled around. A very small number for how much we seen on TV and whatnot. So, the big question really is, how much advertising does WB and Disney pay for since they both own major media outlets? Is Disney really charging ABC(whom they own) to run Last Jedi ads? And lets touch on home video, because studios see a massive percent of that money and we never really look at that anymore because people think it is dead. Home video is certainly not dead, in fact it is still huge. The only difference is DVDs and the psychical media is falling down. On Demand viewings from Comcast, VOD outlets and whatnot are massive. And DVD and Blu-Ray still big in big money. The numbers are still not fully in for Wonder Woman for example, but so far the numbers for that movie on DVD and Blu-Ray have it over 50 million dollars just domestically.
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Post by CowherPowerForever on Dec 16, 2017 21:32:21 GMT
You keep saying that, and never have actually proved me wrong. What does this say about you? I've dealt with clowns like you in the past. You keep running away. Just do us all a favor and walk in front of a moving truck. You're useless.
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Post by dnno1 on Dec 16, 2017 21:52:58 GMT
You keep saying that, and never have actually proved me wrong. What does this say about you? I've dealt with clowns like you in the past. You keep running away. Just do us all a favor and walk in front of a moving truck. You're useless. Didn't Batman say something like that?
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Post by dazz on Dec 16, 2017 22:27:31 GMT
It is generally 50 percent because of exactly what you said, bigger studios like Disney and Warner brothers get about 40 percent overseas and 60 percent domestically(Disney is even trying to get 65 percent for The Last Jedi). I never claimed that JL was a success because it doubled its production budget. Only that it most certainly was not a failure as the troll above keeps claiming. That is based on simple math. Advertising costs are also problematic to figure out. Remember earlier this year WB had only spent about 15 million to advertise Wonder Woman by the time the week of release rolled around. A very small number for how much we seen on TV and whatnot. So, the big question really is, how much advertising does WB and Disney pay for since they both own major media outlets? Is Disney really charging ABC(whom they own) to run Last Jedi ads? And lets touch on home video, because studios see a massive percent of that money and we never really look at that anymore because people think it is dead. Home video is certainly not dead, in fact it is still huge. The only difference is DVDs and the psychical media is falling down. On Demand viewings from Comcast, VOD outlets and whatnot are massive. And DVD and Blu-Ray still big in big money. The numbers are still not fully in for Wonder Woman for example, but so far the numbers for that movie on DVD and Blu-Ray have it over 50 million dollars just domestically. Well even then the numbers aren't set in stone, even for the same studios film to film they can negotiate different exact deals but even then from the checking I have done WB seems to get 51% or so for domestic, 41% or so for international, china not included, but even then seeing how more often for blockbusters they get the majority of their BO internationally splitting the domestic even if we go by your 60% claim and 40% international it's under 50%, JL currently has closer to 2/3's their BO from international markets, that means the breakdown using ur figures would actually make the overall split more akin to 43% which for a BO of $626m or so is a split of $269m which does mean JL has still yet to break even by those numbers and their the more WB/JL favourable ones.
Then again I have been told the % split is based over a films entire run and is on a sliding scle so they make the bulk of their cut in the opening weeks but the longer it goes the higher the theatres cut becomes but I'm not 100% if that's true or not, but if it is it could justify how JL may already have earned their money back.
The whole marketing thing is an interesting point and I'm sure WB or Disney aren't above cooking the books a little, you know overspending to air ads on their own properties that way being able to claim the flicks made less profit than they did as to cut down on potential profit sharing and such, I mean the whole thing studios are purposely vague on how the shit works because that way they can declare whatever they want, and we just have to find a general rule of thumb to go by, which explains why we still have and use the outdated double the budget method because things have changed by the studios wont tell us what that means, the confusion just allows them even more wiggle room and shit.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 17, 2017 0:50:34 GMT
Actually mate that's outdated thinking, it comes from the days when the bulk of a films BO was domestic, domestically studios enjoy a generally 50% split of the profit, maybe a little higher, but internationally from my own observation of breakdowns and such the split is more like just above 40%, with the Chinese box office split considerably smaller than that, you add in the old standard is from a time when $5m on advertising was a major campaign compared to now where $30-40m is the average cost of marketing any film, and with blockbusters were they seem to have to spend $100m in marketing, then the old double the budget rule doesn't hold up.
Even then back in the day the double the budget didn't mean a film made a profit at the box office, it meant the film was a success because back then with how much cheaper films were, how prominent the home video releases and how much they could make off of selling the TV rights to air the films were 2x the budget meant the film would be profitable, which again now given just how much so many of these films cost to make and how big the ad cost is coupled with the dwindling home media market means that doubling the budget alone doesn't insure a films going to be profitable.
That being said JL will ultimately earn them the money they want because things like DC, Marvel, SW & Disney as a whole make as much if not more on toy sales and the like, Batman & Wonder Woman apparently sold $1b in merch this past year alone, so even if the films a financial wash BO wise it still had a significantly large enough audience to increase the public awareness of Cyborg, Aquaman & Flash, the films have the secondary bonus of being grander scale versions of the old cartoons which existed primarily to sell toys to kids, so even if the film falls a little short of earning back it's cost BO wise they'll make it up in merch and shit, doesn't make the film any less of a disappointment BO wise but it does mean WB ultimately wont lose money from it most likely.
It is generally 50 percent because of exactly what you said, bigger studios like Disney and Warner brothers get about 40 percent overseas and 60 percent domestically(Disney is even trying to get 65 percent for The Last Jedi). I never claimed that JL was a success because it doubled its production budget. Only that it most certainly was not a failure as the troll above keeps claiming. That is based on simple math. Advertising costs are also problematic to figure out. Remember earlier this year WB had only spent about 15 million to advertise Wonder Woman by the time the week of release rolled around. A very small number for how much we seen on TV and whatnot. So, the big question really is, how much advertising does WB and Disney pay for since they both own major media outlets? Is Disney really charging ABC(whom they own) to run Last Jedi ads? And lets touch on home video, because studios see a massive percent of that money and we never really look at that anymore because people think it is dead. Home video is certainly not dead, in fact it is still huge. The only difference is DVDs and the psychical media is falling down. On Demand viewings from Comcast, VOD outlets and whatnot are massive. And DVD and Blu-Ray still big in big money. The numbers are still not fully in for Wonder Woman for example, but so far the numbers for that movie on DVD and Blu-Ray have it over 50 million dollars just domestically. This is absolutely pathetic when you think about it. Bottom line - This is a Justice League movie. In a vacuum, it should have grossed well over $1 billion worldwide. Even allowing for the fact it has come on the back of stinkbombs like BvS and Suicide Squad, it should still have managed a paltry $800 million. But instead, it is barely going to crawl past $650 million worldwide and may not even outgross the DCU's first installment - MoS. The movie is an ABJECT FAILURE. WB have begun to sack people, move people around and alter their slate because the movie is an abject failure. Would they do this if everything was fine? No. And yet, here you are, a desperate DCU extremist in denial, unable to admit the movie is a failure and espousing the existence of these amazing deals WB has done with theater chains worldwide (which you have zero proof of), and claiming the advertising budget was paid for with some loose change Kevin Tsujihara found in his coat pocket. All to prove that JL had made a tiny amount of money at the BO. Like that would actually make everything okay?! For the record, I have never said the movie won't make it's money back......eventually. The Forbes article (written by someone with considerable experience within the industry, who knows a lot more about how things work than either you or I. So maybe you'd care to explain how your knowledge is greater than his in these matters? ) which broke it all down and cited $650 million as the break even point seemed pretty accurate to me. As far as it's performance in theaters goes, it is a shit-ton of money in the hole and will need all of that ancillary money to come in before WB make their investment back. At the end of the day, this movie isn't going to manage to gross $700 million worldwide. It is more than likely that it won't manage to outgross Doctor Strange. Go ahead, bury your head in the sand and pretend it made some money. Even you won't be able to make something positive out of this movie's lowly position in the CBM movie BO list. Even though I expect you to have a good try......
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Post by darkpast on Dec 17, 2017 6:37:51 GMT
this movie is doing terrible, for perspective TLJ OW will be close to JL final domestic gross
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Post by scabab on Dec 17, 2017 15:50:47 GMT
Estimates for the weekend are $4.17 million so for once actually better than Deadlines estimate of $3.9 million. Also a 57% drop instead of 60%.
Worldwide it's at $634 million. Expected but hoped for more.
Edit: Gitesh Pandya is now saying it might be finish in the range of $675 million so inbetween Man of Steel and Doctor Strange.
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