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Post by Rufus-T on Apr 23, 2021 20:01:11 GMT
What is your prediction? What do you want to win? What are your thought of this coming Oscar?
This is the first time since "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close" in the 2012 Oscar that I did not see all the best picture nominated movies before the Oscar. I still have a few days, but I doubt I will get to see them all.I make the prediction based on what I read.
Best Motion Picture of the Year: Nomadland I don't think there is a competition here
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom This is a two actors race between Boseman and Hopkins. I saw Ma Rainey, and Boseman's performance was dynamic. I kept hearing Hopkins was better. I believe there are enough diversity voting and sentimental voting that put Boseman on top.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role: Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman This category may be the most interesting. Basically between 3 actresses, between Frances McDormand, Viola Davis, and Carey Mulligan. McDormand is the one I didn't see yet. I don't think they'll give her the 3rd. Viola Davis already won. I thought Mulligan was as good as Davis, so I think they'll give Carey Mulligan the first win
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah I don't think there is a contest here from all the precursor award. I didn't see the movie though. I saw Sound of Metal. I would like to see Paul Raci win. I won't happen.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role: Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari Maria Bakalova was the front runner for a while. I heard from other that Olivia Colman was fantastic in The Father which I didn't see. I think Youn is the one to beat now.
Best Achievement in Directing: Chloé Zhao, Nomadland I heard this is the most locked award of all category. So there it is.
Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen: Promising Young Woman
I kept hearing The Trial of the Chicago 7. I really not that crazy about that movie. I thought Promising Young Woman better. With Emerald Fennell having so many nomination, I think they will award her with this one.
Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published: The Father
It is between Nomadland and The Father, neither I saw. I heard Nomadland is no much of about a story, so I think The Father will win.
Best Achievement in Cinematography: Nomadland Heard that Nomadland is filled with beautiful landscape.
Best Achievement in Film Editing: Sound of Metal The Trial of the Chicago 7 seems like the front runner. Sound of Metal is much better in the editing. I go against the favorite here
Best Achievement in Production Design: Mank
That is a strength in this underwhelming movie. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom also has very good art design too, but I think it will go to Mank
Best Achievement in Costume Design: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom Between Emma and Ma Rainey. Ma Rainey is more high profile, and amazing custume.
Best Achievement in Music Written, Motion Pictures, Original Score: Soul Soul seems to win most if not all score awards
Best Achievement in Music Written, Motion Pictures, Original Song: Judas and the Black Messiah ("Fight For You") I really not sure. Some said the One Night in Miami song will win. The Judas song title just sound right.
Best Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom Not much competition as I heard of except for Pinocchio.
Best Achievement in Sound: Sound of Metal If you have seen the movie, come on, this should win.
Best Achievement in Visual Effects: Tenet Only saw The Midnight Sky of all the nomination,. I like a movie with the subtle visual effect to win, but The Midnight Sky was not a memorable movie to me. I think Tenet is a front runner, so I will pick that.
Best Animated Feature Film of the Year: Soul I don't think there is much competition here
Best International Feature Film of the Year: Another Round Since it got a direction nod, it should be good enough to win this.
Best Documentary, Features: My Octopus Teacher Didn't see any of the nominees. I just pick what I see most others picked.
Best Documentary, Short Subjects: A Concerto Is a Conversation
Best Short Film, Animated: If Anything Happens I Love You
Best Short Film, Live Action: Two Distant Strangers
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Post by timshelboy on Apr 23, 2021 20:38:32 GMT
I have probably seen more of eligible movies than usual but don't have access to my records (old school A4 files and 8 - count em - shoe boxes with a 6x4" record card per movie alphabetically - Old school!)
But from memory
NOMADLAND will be hard to beat for film and direction and Frances was worthy but yeah... maybe someone else this time- and Carey was certainly unforgettable. It's an uncomfortable film and Carey certainly wasn't playing for sympathy, so maybe her. I still don't warm to her (and this movie unlikely to convert!) but the time feels right for something a little edgy to be rewarded.
I thought MANK was pants although Seyfried (by default?) looked better than usual.
The performance I enjoyed the most was probably Hugh Grant in THE GENTLEMEN. But I'm rooting for Sacha for male support - he got the best lines in the movie and stole it from serious competition. The TRIAL thing had a great script.
THE FATHER was OK but not Hopkins' finest hour.
My favourite CALM WITH HORSES omitted from the prizegiving but it got noms in every category in some Brit Indie gongfest (Independent spirit???) and the female lead got a BAFTA support nod.
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Post by politicidal on Apr 23, 2021 21:08:25 GMT
I predict that whoever wins, someone else will object.
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Post by jeffersoncody on Apr 24, 2021 21:53:25 GMT
Seen all the films except “The United States vs. Billie Holiday”. Oscar has, like never before, a hard driving diversity agenda this year. And almost no one wants two old white people to win the big acting awards, but I wouldn't rule out either 83-year-old Anthony Hopkins (who will pick up a surprising amount of votes for his astonishing, career best performance in THE FATHER) and or the sublime Frances McDormand (who is in a category where Mulligan leads the charge, but where the vote will be split, which could, as it did Adrien Brody before her, benefit McDormand. Don't rule out Viola Davis (magnificent in MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM) either.
For me, FALLING, TENET, FIRST COW and, in particular, NEWS OF THE WORLD were better than some of the films nominated for Best Picture.
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Post by kijii on Apr 25, 2021 4:38:13 GMT
Due to the constrictions of COVID and the new-found ability to stream almost anything, I have seen all the films in the top 10 categories. In order to see, Normadland and The United States vs Billie Holiday, I had to subscribe to HULU (at least temporarily). I had to rent Minari and Judas and the Black Messiah, and at high prices too--one was great and the other was not so great. The rest could be seen by renting or regular subscriptions to either Prime or Netflix.
I pretty much know which ones may be selected by the Academy members. But, I have my own favorites--which may or may not agree with theirs.
Best Picture Prediction: Normadland My Favorite: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Actor Prediction: Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom) My Favorite: Anthony Hopkins (The Father) but Boseman was truly great too.
Best Actress Prediction: Frances McDormand (Nomadland) My Favorite: Andra Day (The United States vs Billie Holiday). Day just blew me away with her acting and singing. Lee Daniels took a chance on this relatively unknown actress and she really delivered here.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role Prediction: Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami) My Favorite: Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami)
Best Actress in a Supporting Role Prediction: Yuh-Jung Youn (Minari) ---wonderful film if you haven't seen it yet My Favorite: Yuh-Jung Youn (Minari)
Best Direction Prediction: Chloé Zhao (Nomadland) My Favorite: Lee Isaac Chung (Minari)
Writing for Best Original Screenplay Prediction: Emerald Fennell (PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN) My Favorite: Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Writing for Best Adapted Screenplay Prediction: Kemp Powers (One Night in Miami...) based on her stage play My Favorite: Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller (The Father) based on a stage play by Florian Zeller
Comments: I'm not sure if the characters in August Wilson's play, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, were meant to be caricatures of the real people, but the film presents them as such, IMO. This is not meant to reflect on the acting, which was superb!!!
With regard to Mank, this one will only win over Hollywood insiders who know all the Hollywood inside stories and personalities of the 30s and even then probably not. Kudos to Brit, Gary Oldman for playing Herman Mankiewicz, but....
I loved the story of Promising Young Woman!! I loved Carey Mulligan acting too. This "Me Too" revenge story was entertaining... In some ways, it reminded me of a good Quentin Tarantino film.
I really didn't relate to Nomadland at all...and I saw it three times to try..
Minari is wonderful, entertaining and heartwarming.
If Anthony Hopkins (The Father) doesn't tear your heart out, you have no heart. This isn't the first movie about Alzhemier's, but (with Hopkins) it may be the best one. This film actually puts us into his position and invites us to see things as he sees them. You can see him constantly trying to bluff his disease and fit into the information coming to him others.
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Post by Lebowskidoo 🦞 on Apr 25, 2021 14:17:20 GMT
BEST PICTURE: I've managed to see six of the nominees, except for Judas and the Black Messiah, and The Father. I think the academy is leaning towards Nomadland. My own person choice would be Minari.
BEST DIRECTOR: It feels like Chloé Zhao is the front runner for Nomadland. I always wanted to see David Fincher with an Oscar, but Mank is not going to be the movie that gets him one.
BEST ACTOR: I really don't know where this one is going to go. Even I can't decide. Riz Ahmed is amazing in Sound of Metal, but there's been little talk of him actually winning. Chadwick Boseman is really deserving for Ma Rainey's Black Bottom and is a sentimental favorite. Then there's a lot of chatter about Anthony Hopkins in The Father, which I have not seen. Steven Yeun in Minari is very good but he's been overtaken by everyone else now. I would like to see Chadwick Boseman win, and I think maybe he just might.
BEST ACTRESS: Frances McDormand in Nomadland is really great, and Vanessa Kirby wowed me in Pieces of a Woman, but the only serious contender this year is Carey Mulligan in Promising Young Woman, for the win!
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: For this, I personally would want Frank Langella from The Trial of the Chicago 7 to win, that would have been perfect. But, he wasn't even nominated. I think the academy will award it to Daniel Kaluuya. I cannot picture Borat winning an Oscar and giving a speech, although that might be fun.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: This is a nice list but it belongs to Yuh-Jung Youn in Minari. After all the unkind reviews, Glenn Close seems like the odd selection here. I'm still waiting for her to win an Oscar but not in this role.
BEST FILM EDITING: Nomadland
BEST SOUND: Sound of Metal
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: Tenet
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Nomadland
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Minari
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Post by timshelboy on Apr 25, 2021 16:09:59 GMT
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: For this, I personally would want Frank Langella from The Trial of the Chicago 7 to win, that would have been perfect. But, he wasn't even nominated. I think the academy will award it to Daniel Kaluuya. I cannot picture Borat winning an Oscar and giving a speech, although that might be fun. I was hoping he'd get a nom - he was as good as Sacha but the part much less ostentatious - and yes a 50 year anniversary win would have been nice... Maybe the tendency for one nom per category to avoid splitting the vote between movies is now being applied more to supports. I'm kinda wanting Sacha to win FOR the speech as much as the performance - he's a very funny guy and Lord knows the joint needs some cheering up...
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Post by Lebowskidoo 🦞 on Apr 25, 2021 16:14:40 GMT
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: For this, I personally would want Frank Langella from The Trial of the Chicago 7 to win, that would have been perfect. But, he wasn't even nominated. I think the academy will award it to Daniel Kaluuya. I cannot picture Borat winning an Oscar and giving a speech, although that might be fun. I was hoping he'd get a nom - he was as good as Sacha but the part much less ostentatious - and yes a 50 year anniversary win would have been nice... Maybe the tendency for one nom per category to avoid splitting the vote between movies is now being applied more to supports. I'm kinda wanting Sacha to win FOR the speech as much as the performance - he's a very funny guy and Lord knows the joint needs some cheering up... You may be on to something there. Every review makes a mention of him so it seems like a slight that he's not even nominated.
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Post by timshelboy on Apr 25, 2021 16:43:12 GMT
I was hoping he'd get a nom - he was as good as Sacha but the part much less ostentatious - and yes a 50 year anniversary win would have been nice... Maybe the tendency for one nom per category to avoid splitting the vote between movies is now being applied more to supports. I'm kinda wanting Sacha to win FOR the speech as much as the performance - he's a very funny guy and Lord knows the joint needs some cheering up... You may be on to something there. Every review makes a mention of him so it seems like a slight that he's not even nominated. Rachel Weisz & Emma Stone both got support noms for THE FAVOURITE though, which doesn't support my theory - but I gather they opted for support to avoid competing with Olivia. I haven't seen the MESSIAH movie but there I gather that there have have been some "category fraud" allegations that both noms are really leads.....
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Post by Rufus-T on Apr 25, 2021 16:53:04 GMT
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: For this, I personally would want Frank Langella from The Trial of the Chicago 7 to win, that would have been perfect. But, he wasn't even nominated. I think the academy will award it to Daniel Kaluuya. I cannot picture Borat winning an Oscar and giving a speech, although that might be fun. I was hoping he'd get a nom - he was as good as Sacha but the part much less ostentatious - and yes a 50 year anniversary win would have been nice... Maybe the tendency for one nom per category to avoid splitting the vote between movies is now being applied more to supports. I'm kinda wanting Sacha to win FOR the speech as much as the performance - he's a very funny guy and Lord knows the joint needs some cheering up... You have two actors nominated for Judas already. The question is, to nominate Frank Langella, who would you remove? I heard that Lakeith Stanfield is supposed to be a lead role. Because the studio thought Boseman was going to get the award that they recategorized Stanfield to a supporting nomination. Stanfield may have taken Langella's spot.
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Post by jeffersoncody on Apr 25, 2021 16:53:37 GMT
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: For this, I personally would want Frank Langella from The Trial of the Chicago 7 to win, that would have been perfect. But, he wasn't even nominated. I think the academy will award it to Daniel Kaluuya. I cannot picture Borat winning an Oscar and giving a speech, although that might be fun. I was hoping he'd get a nom - he was as good as Sacha but the part much less ostentatious - and yes a 50 year anniversary win would have been nice... Maybe the tendency for one nom per category to avoid splitting the vote between movies is now being applied more to supports. I'm kinda wanting Sacha to win FOR the speech as much as the performance - he's a very funny guy and Lord knows the joint needs some cheering up... Lance Henricksen should have been nominated for Best Supporting Actor in FALLING.
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Post by Rufus-T on Apr 25, 2021 16:54:49 GMT
The more I read and heard, the more I feel the momentum for Anthony Hopkins is gaining fast. I still pick Boseman, but Hopkins win will not be a surprise.
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Post by timshelboy on Apr 25, 2021 18:00:14 GMT
I was hoping he'd get a nom - he was as good as Sacha but the part much less ostentatious - and yes a 50 year anniversary win would have been nice... Maybe the tendency for one nom per category to avoid splitting the vote between movies is now being applied more to supports. I'm kinda wanting Sacha to win FOR the speech as much as the performance - he's a very funny guy and Lord knows the joint needs some cheering up... You have two actors nominated for Judas already. The question is, to nominate Frank Langella, who would you remove? I heard that Lakeith Stanfield is supposed to be a lead role. Because the studio thought Boseman was going to get the award that they recategorized Stanfield to a supporting nomination. Stanfield may have taken Langella's spot. Oh - so it's tactical.....Yeah it's always tough being up against the dead guy. I remember Downey's face at every awards show that season Ledger cleaned up (I'd have happily seen Downey win for TROPIC THUNDER.)
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Post by morrisondylanfan on Apr 25, 2021 21:06:24 GMT
I've bet £2 on Mank winning Best Picture, bookies are paying out £100 on the bet, if this long-shot wins.
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Post by timshelboy on Apr 25, 2021 22:17:10 GMT
I was hoping he'd get a nom - he was as good as Sacha but the part much less ostentatious - and yes a 50 year anniversary win would have been nice... Maybe the tendency for one nom per category to avoid splitting the vote between movies is now being applied more to supports. I'm kinda wanting Sacha to win FOR the speech as much as the performance - he's a very funny guy and Lord knows the joint needs some cheering up... You have two actors nominated for Judas already. The question is, to nominate Frank Langella, who would you remove? I heard that Lakeith Stanfield is supposed to be a lead role. Because the studio thought Boseman was going to get the award that they recategorized Stanfield to a supporting nomination. Stanfield may have taken Langella's spot. Just checked the noms and want to bump stanfield to lead, bump Oldman from lead entirely and add Langella .🤪 In truth not seen most of other male acting noms except HopkIns -guess I’m a heard heart👿. I thought Colman impressive - recall Imogen Poots’ bit as his carer with more enthusiasm than Hopkins. Not that wild about the movie overall. A middling 6/10 from me.
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Post by Rufus-T on Apr 25, 2021 22:22:50 GMT
You have two actors nominated for Judas already. The question is, to nominate Frank Langella, who would you remove? I heard that Lakeith Stanfield is supposed to be a lead role. Because the studio thought Boseman was going to get the award that they recategorized Stanfield to a supporting nomination. Stanfield may have taken Langella's spot. Just checked the noms and want to bump stanfield to lead, bump Oldman from lead entirely and add Langella .🤪 In truth not seen most of other male acting noms except HopkIns -guess I’m a heard heart👿. I thought Colman impressive - recall Imogen Poots’ bit as his carer with more enthusiasm than Hopkins. Not that wild about the movie overall. A middling 6/10 from me. You know what. I am not that crazy about Oldman's performance either. I just feel his nomination is a tag on to the movie with a topic that Hollywood loves.
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Post by timshelboy on Apr 25, 2021 22:26:17 GMT
I was hoping he'd get a nom - he was as good as Sacha but the part much less ostentatious - and yes a 50 year anniversary win would have been nice... Maybe the tendency for one nom per category to avoid splitting the vote between movies is now being applied more to supports. I'm kinda wanting Sacha to win FOR the speech as much as the performance - he's a very funny guy and Lord knows the joint needs some cheering up... Lance Henricksen should have been nominated for Best Supporting Actor in FALLING.
👍🏻Jeff -that one had passed me by .nice to learn Hendrickson has bagged a good role in a good film. Vigo & The wonderful Laura Linney sounds like a must. S orry we part company on. Hopkins- we’ll always have Ethan Hawke💋
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Post by timshelboy on Apr 25, 2021 22:29:13 GMT
Just checked the noms and want to bump stanfield to lead, bump Oldman from lead entirely and add Langella .🤪 In truth not seen most of other male acting noms except HopkIns -guess I’m a heard heart👿. I thought Colman impressive - recall Imogen Poots’ bit as his carer with more enthusiasm than Hopkins. Not that wild about the movie overall. A middling 6/10 from me. You know what. I am not that crazy about Oldman's performance either. I just feel his nomination is a tag on to the movie with a topic that Hollywood loves. Yes we like our Hollywood on Hollywood. I was bored to tears though - but i’ M no particular buff on subject. I imagine The sUNSET BLVD musical will lead the pack next year unless they really flub it. Assuming it still being made.
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Post by jeffersoncody on Apr 25, 2021 23:01:22 GMT
Lance Henricksen should have been nominated for Best Supporting Actor in FALLING.
👍🏻Jeff -that one had passed me by .nice to learn Hendrickson has bagged a good role in a good film. Vigo & The wonderful Laura Linney sounds like a must. S orry we part company on. Hopkins- we’ll always have Ethan Hawke💋 You do want to get your hands on FALLING timshelboy. Henricksen delivers a performance for the ages as the most profane and un PC character to hit the screen in the last year, but writer-director Mortensen treats him such sympathy. As for Hopkins, well I lost my mother a little while ago after her long, horrifying and heartbreaking battle with dementia. I came away from this film with a greater understanding of what I had seen and lived through first hand with my mother - I was left scorched by her illness. Hopkin's created a character that took me into my mother's world and illuminated things I had battled to understand at the time. To say my partner and I were moved at the end of this film is an understatement. SUPERNOVA - with Colin Firth and Stanley Tucci, is not in the league of THE FATHER, but it has the most beautiful ending of all the dementia movies currently doing the rounds. It's well worth a look too.
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Post by timshelboy on Apr 25, 2021 23:18:50 GMT
👍🏻Jeff -that one had passed me by .nice to learn Hendrickson has bagged a good role in a good film. Vigo & The wonderful Laura Linney sounds like a must. S orry we part company on. Hopkins- we’ll always have Ethan Hawke💋 You do want to get your hands on FALLING timshelboy. Henricksen delivers a performance for the ages as the most profane and un PC character to hit the screen in the last year, but writer-director Mortensen treats him such sympathy. As for Hopkins, well I lost my mother a little while ago after her long, horrifying and heartbreaking battle with dementia. I came away from this film with a greater understanding of what I had seen and lived through first hand with my mother - I was left scorched. Hopkin's created a character that took me into my mother's world and illuminated things I had battled to understand at the time. To say my partner and I were moved at the end of this film is an understatement. SUPERNOVA - with Colin Firth and Stanley Tucci, is not in the league of THE FATHER, but it has the most beautiful ending of all the dementia movies currently doing the rounds. It's well worth a look too. Have spent the last 6 months locking down with my 88 yr old Dad - sounds like I need to see it. SUPERNOVA was on my "if it comes my way" list - bit of a Firth allergy generally but I'll give it a go
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